Oil market's OPEC meeting tantrum & global LNG

On June 2nd, OPEC+ decided to adopt a pensive position rather than a defensive or offensive one and it promptly sent the oil market into a tizz. Quite frankly, it needn't have. According to data aggregators, OPEC+ members are currently cutting production by 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd). 

The figure includes 3.66 million bpd of group-wide cuts and "voluntary cuts" by eight members of 2.2 million bpd. They include Saudi Arabia, Russia and six others - Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

The latter cuts were due to expire at the end of June 2024 while the group-wide ones were due to end in December 2024. Following a part-online, part-physical meeting, OPEC+ extended the cuts of 3.66 million bpd until the end of 2025. But it only prolonged the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until the end of September 2024. After which these voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025.

As the markets opened for trading the following, a crude carnage ensued with Brent shattering its $80 per barrel floor and heading lower to $77. While the OPEC+ decision can be construed as bearish, it wasn't the only reason for the slide in prices. As this blogger told Reuters, a number of factors came into play and OPEC's mild surprise merely served as a catalyst. Economic uncertainties persist both in US and China - the world's two leading crude consumers. Neither country offered consistently positive data the month before. 

Both the IEA and OPEC have now revised their demand growth forecasts lower, albeit to varying degrees. The IEA's (at 1.1 million bpd) is half of what OPEC now predicts (2.2 million bpd). Traders looked at all that and went net short for the week.   

However, all things being equal, Brent under $80 did appear to be oversold, as yours truly wrote on Forbes. That's why merely a calendar week later, prices are back above $80 and about right too. What OPEC did (or didn't) matters, but only to a point.

And now from oil to LNG, where yours truly has been doing a deep dive into the state of affairs and the general direction of the global market. 

That's after the latest outages in Norway and Australia triggered yet another spike in prices. As the Oilholic said in a recent CGTN interview, only high levels of storage in Europe have stopped prices from overshooting. It all bottles down to Asia (the world's largest LNG importing region) regularly competing with Europe (the second-largest) for cargoes. This year, Dutch TTF gas prices have risen by 40% over the past three months to trade at around $11 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) levels. 

However, here's the Oilholic's latest market analysis via Forbes on why a change may be on the horizon. Overall, future Asian demand, pace of the energy transition and new supply coming onstream (in the US and Qatar) will likely influence a calmer direction of near-term travel as the end of the current decade approaches. (Full report here). 

That's a wrap for now. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: OPEC logo at its Secretariat in Vienna, Austria. © Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma on CGTN Europe for commentary on the natural gas market. © CGTN, June 2024. 

Range-bound crude prices & European majors' antics

After a fairly volatile April, a sense of relative calm has returned to the global oil markets in May. Since the start of the month, Brent futures have fluctuated between $82-84 per barrel with the global proxy benchmark's $85 support having been firmly breached last month. 

What was April's technical support level is proving to be this month's resistance level with oil struggling to cap $85 in a market still searching for a firm direction of travel.

It's doubtful if OPEC+ would be the one to provide direction. The Oilholic's reading of market sentiment is that a rollover of production cuts by the producers' group has been largely priced in by the market. 

If China's data remains positive overall, and the second reading of the US Q1 GDP is similarly so, perhaps an uptick in prices may be expected in the second half of the year. However, for now Brent remains in technical backwardation, i.e. the current contract is trading higher compared to one six months or more out. For example, Jan 2025 Brent is just north of $81 at the time of writing this blog. 

The oil price isn't too high and it isn't too low at the moment. So if you were OPEC+ why would you make any headline moves on production quotas? Much rather focus on soothing internal tensions for the common cause. Well their common cause, obviously not the consumers'! 

Away from crude prices, the European oil and gas majors sang from the same hymn sheet in recent weeks at the release of their quarterly results - offer shareholders higher dividends and announce multi-billion share buybacks. BP, Shell and TotalEnergies were all at it, but the latter two went one step further by professing their love for a primary US-listing in search of a higher valuation. 

Here are this blogger's musings on their antics and reasons via Forbes, and Chevron calling time on 55 years of oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Oil pump jack model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma October 2023. 

All missives from OPTIMIZE24

With OPTIMIZE24, organised by AspenTech, drawing to a close last week, the Oilholic marked a fascinating and engaging week with a number of pieces for Forbes as well as daily blog posts. 

Here are the Forbes pieces:

• AspenTech ‘Uniquely Positioned’ As An Optimization Enabler For Global Industries, Says CEO, April 30, 2024.
• Net Zero Goals Intertwine With A Viable Circular Economy, Says Sustainability Tech Expert, May 6, 2024.

And here are all the blog entries for OPTIMIZE24:

• 'Crude' carnage, a crazy April & arriving in H-Town, April 29, 2024.
• Kick-off at OPTIMIZE24 & delving into 'bio-optimization', April 30, 2024.
• 'Partnering for the future' at OPTIMIZE24, May 1, 2024. 

That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024.

'Partnering for the future' at OPTIMIZE24

The second and final day of the main conference program at OPTIMIZE24 has now concluded. It started with an early morning primer on the energy transition challenge from geologist, documentary filmmaker and founder of the Switch Energy Alliance Scott Tinker. 

This set attendees up for an insightful panel discussion on navigating net zero hosted by AspenTech's Chief Product & Sustainability Officer Rasha Hasaneen. She was joined by fellow panellists Andre Argenton, Chief Sustainability Officer at Dow, Suresh Kotha, Chief Information Officer at SMUD,  Darryl Willis, Corporate Vice President, Energy & Resources Industry at Microsoft, Zhanna Golodryga, Executive Vice President, Emerging Energy and Sustainability at Phillips 66, Aqil Jamal, Chief Technologist, Carbon Management Research Division at Aramco, and Mike Train, Chief Sustainability Officer at Emerson. 

The hour-long discussion that followed dwelt on how digitization and collaboration in the energy and industrial complex remain crucial to navigating net zero challenges and achieving a just energy transition by tackling the energy trilemma (of sustainability, security and affordability). 

Summing up, Hasaneen noted that existing digitalization tools may hold many of the answers, while innovations - like artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing - may enable a more consistent adoption across both traditional and emerging energy sectors. 

Ultimately, as the AspenTech sustainability head noted: "Technologies do exist to make the world greener and cleaner, willpower and collaboration is what's needed." Or in other words - all parties need to "partner for the future."

Elsewhere, over the course of the day, this blogger heard interesting sessions touching on cybersecurity best practices for operational technology, how AspenTech solutions are being deployed for automating well production, flaring and downtime reduction in the Permian basin, performance engineering for petrochemicals and the company's solutions for supporting the wider hydrogen industry. 

Away from it all, the Oilholic was delighted to host thought leadership videos for AspenTech at OPTIMIZE24 with several of the company's key movers and shakers including Hasaneen (pictured above). The software company's strategic partners and clients also participated in the exercise.

They included senior executives from EY, Accenture, Wood, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Westlake, TenneT and SMUD. The videos will be posted soon on AspenTech's and their partners' commercial and social channels. So watch this space folks!

And finally, the Oilholic shares with you a glimpse of the event's really cool "smart" lanyard. How so? Well the mini device attached to the strap, carried yours truly's event sessions preferences, and flashed a reminder each time they were due to start. Not only that, touching / syncing it with a fellow attendee's lanyard exchanged mutual contact details! All very, very handy and innovative! And that alas is it for the latest edition of OPTIMIZE. 

All that remains is to thank the wonderful Team AspenTech for putting on a fabulous and insightful event in Houston, and for their warm hospitality. Here's to the next installment in the very near future. More musings to follow soon after the flight home to London. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: 'Navigating net zero' panel at AspenTech's OPTIMIZE24 on May 1, 2024 in Houston, Texas, US. © Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma recording an AspenTech thought leadership video with Rasha Hasaneen, the company's Chief Product & Sustainability Officer on May 1, 2024. © Pete Yagmin /AspenTech 2024. Photo III: OPTIMIZE24's smart lanyard. © Gaurav Sharma 2024.

Kick-off at OPTIMIZE24 & delving into 'bio-optimization'

The Oilholic has just concluded his first insightful day at OPTIMIZE24, the thought leadership event for specialist industrial software provider AspenTech. 

The first day of the event's main program saw  attendees from over 50 countries, 20 industries and 100 AspenTech partners who included a veritable who's-who of the energy, manufacturing and industrial complex such as Aramco, Eni, Dow, ExxoMobil, Tennet, Chevron, YPF, OMV and Sabic to name a few. 

Leading technology companies, seen regularly at energy events these days, were also in town including Amazon Web Services and Microsoft who partner on the data side with AspenTech. 

Proceedings were kicked-off by AspenTech CEO Antonio Pietri who summed up the company's ambitions of being a dependable business partner for those looking to improve throughput, firm up their bottomline, improve margins and lower their carbon footprint - all of which are connected. 

Pietri also expressed his enthusiasm for industrial AI as a tool for achieving energy efficiencies, albeit with "guardrails" in place and via a pragmatic approach, in tandem with IIoT and predictive analytics. Ahead of his keynote, the AspenTech also boss kindly spared the time to sit down with the Oilhoic once again, as he has kindly done several times in the past. The resulting and wide-ranging Forbes interview is published here. 

Pietri's keynote set the tone for the sessions that followed. This blogger chose to listen in to how energy majors were attempting to streamline exploration and production, reduce capex and opex, improve health and safety, advance operational excellence and enable the energy transition. 

Many at the venue were happily prepared to give the Oilholic demos and details of upstream and downstream pilot projects to this effect, as well as their existing deployments. 

One key and very interesting theme that made this blogger think was the ongoing re-tuning of the refining complex, which is seeing many European refiners, who once deployed AspenTech solutions to improve efficiencies for the traditional cracking of hydrocarbons, turn to the company's bespoke digital solutions and deploy them produce sustainable bio-fuels. If its a buzzword you seek dear readers - then call it 'bio-optimization'.

Taking in all of its clients global refining optimisation and bio-fuels initiatives, AspenTech claims to have cut 16MT of CO2 emissions in step with $59 billion worth of improved profitability! And on that mammoth refined, or shall we say bio-refined note, its time to bid goodbye for now. We're only just getting started here, so more to follow tomorrow. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: OPTIMIZE24 logo. Photo II: Antonio Pietri, CEO of AspenTech, speaks at OPTIMIZE24, his company's thought leadership conference in Houston, Texas, US on April 30, 2024. © Gaurav Sharma 2024.