Oil to touch $300/bbl? Are you having a laugh Pierre?

You have to hand it to hedge fund managers. At the sight of the slightest uptick in crude prices, whether driven by geopolitics, OPEC's shenanigans or dare we say – actual supply and demand dynamics – hedge funds and money managers tend to pile in with long calls in the hope of extending the rally. 

However, when it's a case of all of the above market factors, some tend to get overexcited. Pierre Andurand, whose Andurand Capital Management is often bullish on oil and has been down on its luck for the first quarter of 2018 (according to Bloomberg), is certainly among the excitable creatures.

Earlier this week, in a succession of now deleted tweets, Andurand quipped that concerns over the rise of electric vehicles was keeping investment in upstream oil projects muted thereby extending their lead times over fears of peak demand. 

"So paradoxically these peak demand fears might bring the largest supply shock ever. If oil prices do not rise fast enough, $300 oil in a few years is not impossible," he added. 

Having grabbed the attention of the crude markets, the tweets, of course, were subsequently deleted with no explanation. The Oilholic has an explanation – perhaps rational thinking returned? 

Perhaps a realisation that OPEC's lowering of output has to end at some point? Or perhaps a realisation that the US rig count continues to rise in tandem with American barrels? Or even perhaps a realisation that much of oil demand – as the International Energy Agency notes – is driven by petrochemicals and aviation. In fact, even if one in every two cars is electric, oil demand would still rise. 

Anyway, why should rationality get in the way of a provocative tweet. Or make that a deleted provocative tweet. 

For the record, the Oilholic reiterates his average oil forecast range of $65-75/bbl for Brent for 2018, which is a tad higher than that of many fellow bears in the range of $60-70/bbl, given there still is plenty of oil in the market, and the crude mix of light and heavy is keep the global pool well supplied.

To provide, some content the Brent front month contract closed just shy of $75/bbl on Friday (see chart above, click to enlarge), still in its painfully dull range, albeit lurking near the highest level since November 2014. So only another $225 to stack up in a matter of years Pierre, if the bears get your bullish fever! That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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Discussing Blockchain at ISTrade 2018

Barely had the Oilholic returned from Panama, that it was time to head 1550 miles east to Istanbul, Turkey for ISTrade 2018: The 3rd Energy Trading and Supply Conference on the banks of the Bosphorus. 

Yours truly was invited to speak and moderate a panel on the digitisation of energy trading here with a heavy emphasis on - you guessed it blockchain; an emerging and perennially hot topic at energy trading events which are rapidly beginning to feel like technology events!

More on that later, but first on to 'crude' thoughts, and it seems feedback from the great and good of energy trading in Turkey, on this splash and dash work visit to the country, reconfirms one's thoughts that oil is likely to stay in relatively predictable price bracket of $60-70 per barrel, even if geopolitical risk briefly props it up to $70 per barrel. 

Away from the crude price, ISTrade 2018 delegates also noted how trading arms of 'Big Oil' companies, and established commodities trading houses like Vitol, Gunvor and Glencore and the likes, are investing in blockchain and are being exceptionally candid about it.

It set the scene nicely to discuss energy trading in relation to emerging technology, and the Oilholic's take was that it's a one way street to process efficiencies and optimisation. The market can expect more of the same. To discuss the subject, this blogger was joined on the panel by Ashutosh Shashtri, Director of EnerStrat Consulting and Serkan Sahin, Manager, Europe and Africa Oil and Gas Research at Thomson Reuters.

Elsewhere, at IStrade 2018, a plethora of crucial topics were discussed. Here is the Oilholic's detailed report for Forbes from the event. One final point, before taking your leave, is to flag up a Rystad Energy research note that arrived over the weekend. The independent energy research and consulting firm reckons US oilfield services have more to lose compared to Chinese peers from current trade tensions between both countries initially fanned by President Donald Trump.

On April 3, the US published a list of approximately 1,300 Chinese exports that could see tariffs in the near future. Not to be outdone, the Chinese government promised and delivered additional retaliation.

These potential Chinese tariffs include plastics, petrochemicals, petroleum products and specialty chemicals. "For an oil and gas industry looking to rebound in a higher oil price environment, these tariffs necessitate monitoring. More specifically, oilfield service companies must now take pause," says Matthew Fitzsimmons, Vice President of Oilfield Service Research at Rystad Energy.

American companies Clariant, Ecolab, Hexion and NOV each have had significant revenues from China in the past few years. NOV brought in revenues upwards of $561 million during 2017 from their fibreglass and composite tubular businesses in China.

"The giant service company NOV was anticipated to have over $650 million in annual revenues from China for the remainder of the Trump presidency. A trade war between the two nations could certainly impact their ability to grow in this market," Fitzsimmons adds. 

Hexion, a chemistry company offering oilfield drilling chemicals, had $309 million in revenue from China during 2017. Rystad Energy estimates Hexion's Chinese business could grow to $350 million in 2019, if it were not impacted by trade tariffs. Continued Chinese and American trade tensions could have an adverse effect on these companies.

While less volume is at stake, the trade tensions also give reason for concern to Chinese service companies. Hilong and Drill Pipe Master are two pipe fabricators that were impacted by initial US tariffs. However, these companies have strong domestic customers and diverse international clients that will soften adverse effects from trade tensions.

Well there you have it, although many here in Istanbul are hoping things would calm down between the Trump White House and China, with cooler heads prevailing eventually. That's all from Istanbul folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo1: Glimpses of ISrade 2018, April 9-10, Istanbul, Turkey © Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo 2: The Oilholic speaking at IStrade 2018. 

Admiring the Panama Canal: A true engineering marvel

A vessel passes the Panama Canal's Miraflores Locks

The Oilholic finds himself on this glorious sunny day roughly 5,300 miles away from his abode of London town, admiring a marvel of modern engineering – the Panama Canal. In fact, yours truly got to do so both from the shore and on the water aboard the Pacific Queen.

Being a creature of habit, a Forbes piece will follow later down this month. However, this outing is no 'crude' assignment, rather a bid by this blogger to fulfill a long held desire to see the Canal. This maritime shortcut – in operation since 15 August, 1914 built after a decade of construction – serves to connect the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans at the narrowest point of the Isthmus of Panama and the American continent.

The journey, north to south or vice versa, takes around 8 to 10 hours over a distance of around 80km (50 miles) depending on traffic, saving shippers of bulk cargo and commodities, including oil and gas, almost 15 days of circling around Cape Horn.

And for those privileged enough to have travelled on the Canal, as the Oilholic did today, would notice its locks – including the iconic Miraflores and Pedro Miguel locks – serve as water lifts to raise or lower ships from the Pacific or Atlantic Oceans, depending on their North or Southbound routes, either side of the Isthmus of Panama, to the artificial Gatun Lake 27 meters above sea level; the Canal's connecting water body for transit.

The Panama government pumped in $5.3bn towards the Canal's expansion in 2007 following public consultation, and the expanded Canal – inaugurated on 26 June 2016 – saw its capacity double. So atop Panamax vessels, it can now handle Neo-Panamax vessels (or Aframax class).

These days toll fees charged for the largest vessels per crossing could be in the range of $500,000 to $800,000. The Panama Canal Authority, a public body entrusted with running the Canal since Panama took over the administration of the waterway from the US in 1999, argues that a trip around Cape Horn would cost way more both in monetary terms and time of passage.

Not content with visiting the Miraflores center, The Oilholic also lapped up views of the waterway from Cerro Ancon - Panama City's highest point.

But of course, the main show came on board the Pacific Queen, when one got a feel of the Panama Canal going southbound from the Atlantic to the Pacific crossing Gatun, Pedro Miguel and Miraflores locks, being first raised to Gatun lake, and then lowered on the journey to the Pacific, heading under the Centennal Bridge and the Bridge of the Americas before ending a memorable voyage.

All in all, an amazing outing and to have been here and seen it. And with that done, it's time to head back. Photos from the outing - with captions - are spread across this post (and below), along with a video of a tanker crossing the Miraflores locks (above). But alas, that's all from Panama City folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

ADDENDUM: April 16, 2018: As promised here is The Oilholic’s report on ‘crude’ traffic on the Panama Canal for Forbes.

The Oilholic's glimpses of the Panama Canal:

Miraflores Locks, Panama Canal

Tanker makes its way through Miraflores Locks

Pedro Miguel Locks, Panama Canal

Vessel crossing Pedro Miguel Locks

Gatun Lake, Panama Canal

Bridge of the Americas

View of Panama Canal & Albrook Port from Cerro Ancon

© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photos © Gaurav Sharma, April 2018. 

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Meeting YuMi & getting Swiss chocolates packed

Technology, especially AI and robotics, were hot topics at the recently concluded IHS CERAWeek in Houston, Texas, US. 

They simply had to be, with a succession of ‘Big Oil’ and utility bosses stressing on the need for a more efficient optimised energy industry.

The annual event itself, now past its 37th year and counting, also saw its tech floor and space grow bigger in addition to the dialogues that took place. In the midst of it all, robotics and engineering giant ABB’s boss Ulrich Spiesshofer insisted that the Oilholic should not leave Houston without paying YuMi a visit. 

That would be the company’s small-parts assembly robot first introduced to the industrials market in 2015; and has been making waves ever since.

It has vowed US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and even conducted Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli and the Lucca Philharmonic Orchestra at the Teatro Verdi in Pisa, Italy. 

True to his word, this blogger paid YuMi a visit and found it vowing and amusing CERA Week delegates in equal measure, by packing Swiss chocolates for them. (See video below)

According to ABB North America spokesperson Chris Shigas, the speed you see in the video is only 50% of what YuMi is capable of.  The company describes it as a ‘co-bot’. 

In Shigas’ own words: “It’s a collaborative, dual arm, small parts assembly robot solution that includes flexible hands, parts feeding systems, camera-based part location and state-of-the-art robot control.”

YuMi weighs 38kgs and is the size of a small human being. It can [and does], operate without a protective cage with in-built health and safety features designed for it to work alongside human co-workers. The thought process and platform collectively give YuMi its name - “you and me” working together to create “endless possibilities,” as ABB suggests.

In fact, the Swiss chocolate nibbles you see YuMi pick and pack are pretty light compared to the 500 gram payload it can currently handle. 

Shigas said that thanks to its compactness, YuMi can be easily integrated into existing assembly lines thereby increasing productivity.

What created the real buzz for oil and gas folks at CERA Week was the fact that YuMi features lead-through programming, which, in simple terms, does away with the need for specialised training for operators. That opens up endless future possibilities for a plethora of industries.

Well, that’s all for the moment folks! But before the Oilholic takes your leave, a photograph with YuMi was in order for a keepsake, given it has rubbed shoulders with presidents and chancellors, and might soon be coming to a facility near you. We both also seem to be in matching attire, more by coincidence than by design, in this blogger's case at least! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo 1: ABB's YuMi at IHS CERA Week 2018. Photo 2: The Oilholic with YuMi. Video: YuMi packs Swiss chocolates © Gaurav Sharma March, 2018. 

Flurry of soundbites & final musings from Houston

As IHS CERA Week came to a close on Friday, the Oilholic published two Forbes interviews with a 'tech twist', given technology enabled process efficiencies and cost optimisation seem to be in overdrive in the oil and gas industry.

First off, it was a pleasure, yet again, to exchange views with engineering and robotics giant ABB’s boss Ulrich Spiesshofer.

In a wide-ranging interview, Spiesshofer noted: "We are taking the oil and gas industry from an automated into an autonomous operations sphere, where you have self-learning processes, where you use AI to augment human potential, to optimize the control loop for operations and maintenance." (Read the whole interview here.)

Secondly, yours truly also exchanged views with Peter Zornio, Chief Technology Officer of Emerson's automation division, who said the inexorable direction the energy sector was heading in via broad spectrum digitisation meant more business for his company.

"We are working on a proposal where we become a turnkey supplier directly looking at client equipment and alerting them when something goes wrong."

While Emerson is offering full-scale outsourcing, Zornio admitted the industry might not be ready for this level of optimisation. The whole discussion is available here.

With bags packed from CERA Week 2018, this blogger's two standout quotes from the event were uttered by BP CEO Bob Dudley and International Energy Agency's Executive Director Fatih Birol. Dudley reminded the audience of the importance of the integrated model in current climate, when he noted: "Our downstream business contributes billions of dollars to the dividend we give to our shareholders."

And Dr Birol, when asked what should US producers make of their new found clout in the oil and gas world with forecasts of American production exceeding that of market leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia, quipped: "They should enjoy!"

Finally, on a week-on-week basis, the oil benchmarks ended Friday (9 March) over 1% higher; read what you will into it – but one reckons, price oscillation in the $55-70 per barrel range is about par. 

That's all from Houston folks, as it's time for the flight home to London. But before the Oilholic takes your leave, here is a view (above) from Houston Rodeo 2018, which this blogger had the pleasure of visiting yet again. 

It's a fantastic affair that draws in thousands every year – with a carnival atmosphere, barbecues, fun rides, livestock on display topping up the rodeo – all with a very unique Texas flavour! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo 1: Houston's Skyline. Photo 2: Houston Rodeo 2018, being held in Texas, US © Gaurav Sharma March, 2018.