BP’s sale, South Africa’s move & the North Sea

BP continues to catch the Oilholic’s eye via its ongoing strategic asset sale programme aimed at mitigating the financial fallout from the 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill. Not only that, a continual push to get rid of refining and marketing (R&M) assets should also be seen as positive for its share price.

 

This afternoon, the oil giant inked a deal to sell five of its oil & gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico for US$5.6 billion to Plains Exploration and Production; an American independent firm. However, BP Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley reiterated that the oil giant remains committed to the region.

 

"While these assets no longer fit our business strategy, the Gulf of Mexico remains a key part of BP's global exploration and production portfolio and we intend to continue investing at least US$4 billion there annually over the next decade," he said in statement following the announcement.

 

Last month BP agreed to sell the Carson oil refinery in California to Tesoro for US$2.5 billion. As a footnote, the agreement holds the potential to make Tesoro the largest refiner on the West Coast and a substantial coastal R&M player alongside the oil majors. While regulatory scrutiny is expected, anecdotal evidence from California suggests the deal is likely to be approved. Back in June, BP announced its intention to sell its stake in TNK-BP, the company's lucrative but acrimony fraught Russian venture.

 

One can draw a straight logic behind the asset sales which BP would not contest. A recent civil case filed by the US Department of Justice against BP does not mince its words accusing the oil giant of “gross negligence” over the Gulf of Mexico spill which followed an explosion that led to the death of 11 workers. Around 4.9 million barrels of oil spewed into the Gulf according to some estimates.

 

The charges, if upheld by the court, could see BP fined by as much as US$21 billion. The trial starts in January and BP, which denies the claim, says it would provide evidence contesting the charges. The company aims to raise US$38 billion via asset sales by Q4 2012. However, the Oilholic is not alone is his belief that the sale programme, while triggered by the spill of 2010, has a much wider objective of portfolio trimming and a pretext to get rid of burdensome R&M assets.

 

Meanwhile in Russia, the Kremlin is rather miffed about the European Commission’s anti-trust probe into Gazprom. According to the country’s media, the Russian government said the probe “was being driven by political factors.” Separately, Gazprom confirmed it would no longer be developing the Shtokman Arctic gas field citing escalating costs. Since, US was the target export market for the gas extracted, Gazprom has probably concluded that shale exploration stateside has all but ended hopes making the project profitable.

 

Sticking with Shale, reports over the weekend suggest that South Africa has ended its moratorium on shale gas extraction. A series of public consultations and environmental studies which could last for up to two years are presently underway. It follows a similar decision in the UK back in April.

 

Sticking with the UK, the country’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) says output of domestic mining & quarrying industries fell 2.4% in July 2012 on an annualised basis; the 22nd consecutive monthly fall. More worryingly, the biggest contributor to the decrease came from oil & gas extraction which fell 4.3% in year over year terms.

 

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has reacted to declining output. After addressing taxation of new UKCS prospection earlier this year, Osborne switched tack to brownfield sites right after the ONS released the latest production data last week.

 

Announcing new measures, the UK Treasury said an allowance for "brownfield" exploration will now shield portions of income from the supplementary charge on their profits. It added that the allowance would give companies the incentive to "get the most out of" older fields. Speaking on BBC News 24, Osborne added that the long-term tax revenues generated by the change would significantly outweigh the initial cost of the allowance.

 

According to the small print, income of up to £250 million in qualifying brownfield projects, or £500 million for projects paying Petroleum Revenue Tax (PRT), would be protected from a 32% supplementary charge rate applied by the UK Treasury to such sites.

 

Roman Webber, tax partner at Deloitte, believes the allowance should stimulate investment in older fields in the North Sea where it was previously deemed uneconomical. Such investment is vital in preserving and extending the life of existing North Sea infrastructure, holding off decommissioning and maximising the recovery of the UK’s oil & gas resources.

 

“Enabling legislation for the introduction of this allowance was already included in the UK Finance Act 2012, announced earlier this year. The allowance will work by reducing the profits subject to the 32% Supplementary Charge. The level of the allowances available will depend on the expected project costs and incremental reserves, but will be worth up to a maximum of £160 million net for projects subject to PRT and £80 million for those that are not subject to the tax,” Webber notes.

 

Finally on the crude pricing front, Brent's doing US$114-plus when last checked. It has largely been a slow start to oil futures trading week either side of the pond as traders reflect on what came out of Europe last week and is likely to come out of the US this week. Jack Pollard of Sucden Financial adds that Chinese data for August showed a deteriorating fundamental backdrop for crude with net imports at 18.2 million metric tonnes; a 13% fall on an annualised basis.

 

Broadly speaking, the Oilholic sees a consensus in the City that Brent’s trading range of US$90 to US$115 per barrel will continue well into 2013. However for the remaining futures contracts of the year, a range of US$100 to US$106 is more realistic as macroeconomics and geopolitical risks seesaw around with a relatively stronger US dollar providing the backdrop. It is prudent to point out that going short on the current contract is based Iran not flaring up. It hasn't so far, but is factored in to the current contract's price. That’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

© Gaurav Sharma 2012. Photo: Oil Rig © Cairn Energy

A tailored guide to minerals and mining

Mining and quarrying together with oil & gas prospection complete the extractive industries landscape. Minerals have myriad uses in several key sectors of the world economy. Specifically in the oil & gas world, minerals used in the drilling process (e.g. - barytes, bentonites and frac sands) are key components of the hydrocarbon extraction processes.

 

Within this global setting, exploration, logistics and allied businesses are frequently impacted by constantly evolving commercial, legal, health and safety and cross-jurisdictional due diligence scenarios. Furthermore, professionals in the business as well as corporate project sponsors also need to keep abreast of technical and scientific matters ahead of a project feasibility study.

 

The book – Minerals and Mining: A Practical Global Guide – not only seeks to address an information gap in sector but also hopes to mitigate the information overload in this day and age. This succinct handy guide of just under 300 pages dwells on key legal and commercial concerns of the minerals and mining world. Various aspects of the subject at hand are examined by industry professionals via 19 detailed chapters.

 

Each chapter has been authored by jurisdictional experts ranging from Argentina to Russia  who work for some of the most recognisable brands in the legal and advisory business – including, but not limited to Allen & Overy, Norton Rose, SNR Denton and KPMG.

 

Topics include regulations, agreements, tariffs on minerals and mining; legal processes concerning  licences, concessions, production sharing and mining development agreements; financing; mining management and operating facets and last but not the least - the sale and purchase of mining assets. Additionally, mineral trading, environmental protection, social responsibility, accounting and taxation in various jurisdictions have also been examined.

 

The treatment of Latin American nations – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru – stands out for its veracity. However, it is the detailed chapters on emerging scenarios in Africa that sealed the deal for the Oilholic. As with works of this nature, consulting editor Per Vestergaard Pedersen of Lett Law Firm has done a commendable job of knitting this book of experts together. He has also authored an informative chapter on Greenland; a jurisdiction where mining activities have grown exponentially between 2002 and 2012.

 

On the whole, as expected the book is aimed at professionals with a mid-tier and upwards knowledge of the sector. The Oilholic believes it would make a handy and informative reference guide for legal practitioners and financiers. Executives at advisory firms, banks, engineering consultants and mining, shale, oilfield drilling project EPC contractors would appreciate it as well.

 

© Gaurav Sharma 2012. Photo: Front Cover – Minerals and Mining: A Practical Global Guide © Globe Law and Business

G7’s crude gripe, “Make oil prices dive”

As the Oilholic prepares to bid goodbye to Dubai, the G7 group of finance ministers have griped about rising oil prices and called on oil producing nations to up their production. They would rather have Dubai Mall’s Waterfall with Divers enclosure (pictured left) act as a metaphor for market direction! It is causing some consternation in this OPEC member jurisdiction and so it should.

 

First the facts – in a communiqué released on the US Treasury’s website yesterday, the G7 ministers say they are concerned about the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy and were prepared to act. Going one step further the ministers called on producing nations, most read OPEC, to act and now.

 

"We encourage oil producing countries to increase their output to meet demand. We stand ready to call upon the International Energy Agency (IEA) to take appropriate action to ensure that the market is fully and timely supplied," the statement notes. We have been here before back in March when American motorists were worried about prices at the pump and President Barack Obama was in a political quandary.

 

Now of course he is barely months away from a US Presidential election and here we are again. In fact the Canadians aside, all leaders elsewhere in the G7 are facing political pressure of some kind or the other related to the crude stuff too. Cue the statement and sabre rattling of releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs)!

 

OPEC and non-OPEC producers' viewpoint, and with some reason, is that the market remains well supplied. Unfortunately plays around paper barrels and actual availability of physical barrels have both combined to create uncertainty in recent months.

 

On the face of it, at its last meeting OPEC – largely due to Saudi assertiveness – was seen producing above its set quota. Oil prices have spiked and dived, as the Oilholic noted earlier, but producers’ ability to change that is limited. Fear of the unknown is driving oil prices. As Saadallah Al Fathi, a former OPEC Secretariat staff member, notes in his recent Gulf News column, “prices seem to move against expectations, one way or another.”

 

Al Fathi further notes that the (West/Israel’s) confrontation with Iran is still on, but it is not expected to flare up. “Even the embargo on Iranian oil is slow to show in numbers, but may become more visible later,” he adds. While an oil shock following an Israeli attack on Iran could be made up by spare capacity, the room for another chance geopolitical complication or natural disaster would stretch the market. This is what spooks politicians, a US President in an election year and the market alike.

 

However, rather than talk of releasing SPRs for political ends now and as was the case in June 2011, the Oilholic has always advocated waiting for precisely such an emergency! While it has happened in the past, it is not as if producers have taken their foot off the production pedal to cash in on the prevailing bullish market trends at this particular juncture.

 

Away from G7’s gripe, regional oil futures benchmark – the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) Oman Crude (OQD) – has caught this blogger’s eye. Oman’s production is roughly below 925,000 barrels per day (bpd) at present. For instance, in June it came in at 923,339 bpd. However, this relatively new benchmark is as much about Oman as Brent is about the UK. It is fast acquiring pan-regional acceptance and the November futures contract is seen mirroring Brent and OPEC basket crude prices. Its why the DME created the contract in the first place. Question is will it have global prowess as a 'third alternative' one day?

 

Elsewhere, the UAE has begun using the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP). It will ultimately enable Abu Dhabi to export 70% of its crude stuff from Fujairah which is located on the Gulf of Oman bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian threats to close the passage in the process. However the 400km long pipeline, capable of transporting 1.5 million bpd, comes at a steep price of US$4 billion.

 

Sticking with the region, it seems Beirut is now the most expensive city to live in the Middle East according to Mercer’s 2012 Worldwide Cost of Living survey. It is followed by Abu Dhabi, Dubai (UAE), Amman (Jordan) and Riyadh (Saudi Arabia). On a global footing, Tokyo (Japan) tops the list followed by Luanda (Angola), Osaka (Japan), Moscow (Russia) and Geneva (Switzerland).

 

Meanwhile unlike the ambiguity over Dubai’s ratings status, Kuwait has maintained its AA rating from Fitch with a ‘stable’ outlook supported by rising oil prices and strong sovereign net foreign assets estimated by the agency in the region of US$323 billion in 2011.

 

Finally, on a day when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Iran has doubled production capacity at the Fordo nuclear site, Tehran has called for ridding the world of nuclear weapons at the Non Aligned Movement (NAM) summit claiming it has none and plans none. Yeah right! And  the Oilholic is dating Cindy Crawford! That’s all from Dubai folks; it’s time for the big flying bus home to London! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

© Gaurav Sharma 2012. Photo: Waterfall at the Dubai Mall, UAE © Gaurav Sharma

The world according to ENOC, Jebel Ali & more

If you could think of one participant in the Dubai economy that exemplifies a bit of a detachment from its debt fuelled construction boom turned bust, then the Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) is certainly it. The Oilholic has always been one for contrasting Dubai’s debt fuelled growth with neighbour Abu Dhabi’s resource driven organic growth. However, ENOC is a somewhat peculiar exception to the recent Dubai norm or some say form.

 

Since becoming a wholly owned Government of Dubai crown company in 1993, ENOC has continued to diversify its non-fuel operations while playing its role as a custodian of whatever little crude oil reserves the Emirate holds. The history of this NOC dates to 1974. Today it is among the most integrated (and youngest) operators in the business, though not necessarily profitable in a cut throat refining and marketing (R&M) world.

 

While it has no operations in neighbouring Abu Dhabi, ENOC has moved well beyond its Dubai hub establishing a foothold in 20 international markets and other neighbouring Emirates over the years. In case, you didn’t know or had never heard of ENOC, this Dubai crown company has a majority 51.9% stake in Dragon Oil Plc; a London-listed promising upstart. Dragon Oil’s principal producing asset is the Cheleken Contract in the eastern section of the Caspian Sea under Turkmenistan’s jurisdiction.

 

Despite trying times for refiners ENOC’s Jebel Ali Refinery, situated 40km southwest of Dubai City, is the crown company’s crown jewel. Planned in 1996 and completed by 1999, the Jebel Ali refinery’s processing capacity currently stands at 120,000 barrels per day (bpd). It processes condensate or light crude to myriad refined products which get exported as well as feed in to ENOC's own domestic supply chain.

 

ENOC says an upgrade of the refinery was carried in 2010 at a cost of US$850 million. The refinery dominates the landscape of the Jebel Ali free trade zone accompanied by a sprawling industrial estate and an international port. The Oilholic is reliably informed that the latter is among the largest and busiest ports in the region playing host to more ships of the US Navy than any other in the world away from American shores.

 

While being able to host aircraft carriers is impressive, what’s more noteworthy from a macroeconomic standpoint is the fact that the Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone as a destination exempts companies relocating there from corporate tax for fifteen years, personal income tax and excise duties. It’s a privilege to have visited Jebel Ali and also by ‘crude’ coincidence witness ENOC sign a joint venture agreement with Saudi Arabia’s Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Services Company (Aldrees) for setting up service stations in different locations across the latter.

 

The equal-staked venture will see service stations in Saudi Arabia feature ENOC’s regional marquee brand products. The first station is expected to open early next year, with the number of sites rising to 40 in due course. Given that ENOC needs to buy petroleum from international markets as Dubai does not produce enough of the crude stuff, the move has much to do with cost mitigation on the home front.

 

ENOC is forced to sell fuel at Dubai petrol pumps well below the price it pays for crude and refining costs. For instance, over 2011 fuel sales losses at ENOC were thought to be in the US$730-750 million range. So here’s a NOC with profitable non-fuel businesses but troubling fuel businesses looking for ‘crude’ redemption elsewhere. That’s all for the moment folks; a final word from Dubai later! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

© Gaurav Sharma 2012. Photo 1: ENOC Bur Dubai Office, UAE. Photo 2: Jebel Ali Refinery and Industrial Estate, Dubai, UAE © Gaurav Sharma 2012.

Oil rich Abu Dhabi’s 'benign' shadow over Dubai

The Oilholic thinks there is certain poignancy about a street sign in the Dubai Marina area. The sign (pictured left) points to different directions for Abu Dhabi and Dubai city centre – while the macroeconomic direction for both Emirates is anything but following on from the 2008-09 domestic real estate crisis. As if with perfect metaphorical symmetry, the sign’s current backdrop is coloured by construction conglomerate EMAAR’s flags, the odd logo of another construction conglomerate Nakheel and ongoing building work; some of which is a little ‘behind schedule’ for good reason.

 

In March this year, the UAE’s oil production came in at 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) with attempts on track to increase it to 3 million bpd. Of this, Dubai’s production on a standalone basis has never accounted for more than 70,000 bpd at any given point excluding barrels of oil equivalent in offshore gas findings. It is Abu Dhabi that holds 95% of proven oil reserves in the UAE.

 

With Dubai’s oil reserves set to be exhausted within a few decades bar the emergence of a significant find, a decision was taken in the late 1990s, by the powers that be, to diversify towards finance, tourism and manufacturing. The decision made sense but the approach was not sensible. By 2008, construction, real estate, trade and finance and not oil & gas had become the biggest contributors to Dubai’s economy.

 

Dubai was to be the go to capital market of the Middle East, so ran the spiel. Along came the construction of some of the tallest skyscrapers in the world such as – the Burj Dubai (renamed Burj Khalifa later for a reason), Palm Islands, Emirates Towers and the Burj Al Arab hotel. However, the global financial crisis that was to follow laid bare the fact that some of tall buildings downtown were built (or about to be built) on a mountain of debt covered by a cone of opacity. A global credit squeeze hit debt laden Dubai where it hurt – its brash, inflated property market.

 

The Oilholic distinctly remembers a wire flash from December 2008 when Mohammed al-Abbar, CEO of Emaar, told the world’s scribes that his company held US$350 billion in real estate assets and US$70 billion in credits. Concurrently, industry peer Nakheel declared US$16 billion in debts.

 

As speculators ditched the Dubai real estate market, property values tumbled, construction stalled and unemployment spiked. Inevitably, both Nakheel and Emaar were left with a pile of defunct assets, angry investors, homeowners defaulting and many dodging service charges. One contact recollects an instance where a fresh development lost 63% of its marked pre-crisis value. While Emaar was holding firm, Nakheel owned by Dubai World was imploding.

 

Absence of organic growth and the end of a debt fuelled boom had Dubai staring into the abyss. With the credit rating of the entire UAE being threatened, a miffed white knight came along on December 14, 2009 in the shape of Abu Dhabi. The oil rich emirate had decided to bailout its beleaguered neighbour on the day to the tune of US$10 billion.

 

Not only that, Abu Dhabi then went on to provide Dubai with US$25 billion in the shape of buying Dubai bonds. Local independent commentators say the actual figure may never be known but a 2010 calculated guess puts Dubai’s debt to Abu Dhabi in the range of US$80 to US$95 billion. When asking for an official confirmation, yours truly was told to “enjoy the sunshine!”

 

However, a most polite spokesperson on the Abu Dhabi side says it took remedial action needed at the time in good faith and to this day the UAE central bank is firmly committed to domestic banking institutions exposed to the real estate crisis of 2009, bringing about institutional reforms and learning from it.

 

Yet, transparency never comes easy for Dubai even after facing a financial storm it never envisaged. In March this year, Richard Fox, head of Middle East and Africa sovereigns’ ratings at Fitch, summed it up best while speaking in London. “Ratings agencies have no plans to give Dubai a credit rating because its government has not asked to be rated, and the lack of transparency would make a credit assessment difficult,” he said.

 

Three years later both Nakheel and Emaar are thought to be in a much happier place according to local media outlets. This is particularly true of Emaar which builds its domestic projects on land that is provided free in the main and uses migrant labour on little more than US$8 to US$10 a day based on anecdotal evidence and the Oilholic’s own findings! Despite recent attempts by the government to rectify the manner in which Dubai’s property market is hitherto disconnected from conventional market ground rules, not much has changed.

 

One thing is certain, Dubai will never be disconnected from its ‘benevolent’ oil rich neighbour Abu Dhabi. Some complain that Abu Dhabi’s crude help must have come with strings attached; something which was strenuously denied by both sides in 2009.

The Oilholic thinks strings weren’t attached; Abu Dhabi quite simply now holds most of the strings! So it was fitting that on January 4, 2010, when Emaar inaugurated the world tallest building (pictured right) – its name was promptly changed from Burj Dubai to Burj Khalifa in honour of Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the Emir of Abu Dhabi.

 

For oil producing nations, the challenge has always been to establish a viable non-oil sector which counters the impact of a resource driven windfall on other facets of the economy. Dubai had every chance, not to mention a more pressing need than its neighbour to do this and messed it up spectacularly. Au contraire, Abu Dhabi has managed the challenge rather well as it seems.

 

For an Emirate which holds 9% of global proven oil reserves and 95% of that of the UAE, Sheikh Khalifa’s Abu Dhabi sees around 44% of its revenues come in from non-oil sources. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Emirate’s sovereign wealth fund rumoured to have nearly U$900 billion in managed assets, leads the way.

 

Ratings agencies may grumble about Dubai’s opacity but all three major ones do rate Abu Dhabi. Fitch and Standard & Poor's rate Abu Dhabi 'AA' while Moody's rates it 'Aa2'. Sheikh Khalifa is actively looking to increase the share of non-oil revenue in Abu Dhabi to 60% within this decade if not sooner.

So maybe the several streets signs in Dubai pointing to the route to Abu Dhabi and the imposing Burj Khalifa (a structure that’s hard to miss from practically most parts of Dubai) have a metaphorical message. And probably there is envy and gratitude in equal measure. Cosmopolitan Dubai is now increasing reliant on black gold dust from Abu Dhabi. That’s all for the moment folks; more from Dubai later! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

© Gaurav Sharma 2012. Photo 1: A street sign on the Dubai Marina, UAE. Photo 2: Burj Khalifa, Dubai, UAE © Gaurav Sharma 2012.