ADIPEC Day IV: Reflections at sunset in Abu Dhabi

The final and fourth day of ADIPEC 2023 has reached its conclusion as the sun sets here in Abu Dhabi with the show on a likely track to beat all its previous records (and quite possibly way more than the figure of 160,000 attendees it marketed). 

And that makes sense, as there is likely to be immense interest and intrigue when you bring together the various energy strands of oil, natural gas and renewables; and discuss everything from power markets to the future of shipping, whilst at the same time deliberate the obvious need to decarbonise. 

We came together on day one with the rallying cry of "Decarbonising. Faster. Together", we conclude proceedings perhaps with a call for evolution, understanding and collaboration. 

Evolution, as we explore new horizons offered by the spirit of human ingenuity in coming up with solutions for a low carbon economy. Understanding, that oil and gas will have to play a role for a good few decades yet, if not more, to ensure that energy poverty doesn't become the by-product of a slapdash rush to decarbonise. As for collaboration, need the Oilholic spell it out? Because if we don't work together, collaborate, partner and prepare for the road ahead, we will fail. 

Away from these pensive thoughts, this blogger also took time out on the final day to visit ADIPEC's wonderful Marine & Logistics Zone. It's here that the crew of ADNOC's support shipping fleet took one around a number of vessels currently being run on biodiesel, made from used and recycled cooking oil collected from restaurants around Abu Dhabi! Thank you to all the crew who spared their valuable time for the trip, and it was an experience the Oilholic will treasure. 

Paid a visit to @ADNOCGroup's biodiesel powered fleet of support vessels outside #ADIPEC2023's Maritime & Logistics Zone just before event ends. Had a very interesting talk / walk around vessel Ameer Alkouloub with the crew. Thank you! #OOTT #sustainablefuels #EnergyTransition pic.twitter.com/QNYC2yhwrf

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) October 5, 2023

With the time of departure here, this blogger would like to say that it was great to be back at ADIPEC after a three-year hiatus caused by the briefest of forays into the world of banking. It was great seeing old friends and making new ones in the buzz of this amazing event once again, and a privilege to be a part of it. Finally, and most importantly, my sincere thanks to the amazing team at dmg events who made it all happen and for their most wonderful hospitality. 

Well that's a wrap from Abu Dhabi folks. It'll be time for the big flying bus home to London Heathrow. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: Sunset over Abu Dhabi NEC, the venue of ADIPEC 2023 © Gaurav Sharma 2023.

ADIPEC Day III: On partnerships, progress & more

As Day III of ADIPEC gathered momentum and crowds grew bigger still, global crude oil markets were greeted with the news that Saudi Arabia and Russia would maintain their joint oil production cuts of 1.3 million bpd until the end of the year. However, that didn't stop global oil benchmarks from sliding lower faced with an uncertain demand picture and an ever stronger US dollar. 

Inside the conference halls, and away from the din of the global crude market, various speakers called for heathy and meaningful cross-sector partnerships to open viable energy transition pathways. These may ideally involve stakeholders from across energy industries, financiers, technologists, governments, academia, and, of course, the end-consumer. 

As Niall Hannigan, Chief Financial Officer of Masdar, noted in a panel on fast tracking finance and prioritising investments for the energy transition. "Investors need scale. They want to see a clear policy framework within a geography, underpinned by a stable, transparent regulatory regime. Governments won’t attract investors alone – we need regulators, developers, development banks and commercial banks in the room together to create a programme. That collaborative conversation is essential.”

For his part, the Oilholic marked Day III with a tech heavy outing. It included concluding one's final speaking engagement at ADIPEC 2023's Digitalisation in Energy conference stream with a one-on-one discussion with Saravan Penubarthi, CTO of AiQ, on the future of cybersecurity solutions for energy systems. 

Wrapped up my moderating duties at #ADIPEC2023 with a final Digitalisation in Energy session earlier today with Saravan Penubarthi, CTO of AiQ, on the future of #cybersecurity solutions for #energy systems. Great session, lovely audience at @Chevron Hall 14 #EnergyTransition pic.twitter.com/WDIc77ekQk

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) October 4, 2023

With panel sessions concluded, yours truly also took some time out to have a walkabout in the wider exhibition area spread over several halls. 

Getting going on Day III of @ADIPECOfficial 2023. Here's @Yokogawa's display on #decarbonizing, @ABB_Energy's EV charging station mock-up (& @bakerhughesco talk on sustainable solutions) in the background #ADIPEC2023 #EnergyTransition #OOTT pic.twitter.com/Im6PLyz1p0

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) October 4, 2023

And...also said goodbye to Chevron's Boston Dynamics robotic dog(s) this blogger has been walking by for the past few days :) 

And that's all for Day III, more tomorrow! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: (1) ADIPEC 2023 exhibition floor, Abu Dhabi, UAE, (2) Chevron's Boston Dynamics Robotic Dogs © Gaurav Sharma 2023.

ADIPEC Day II: On techies, ministers, sessions & more

Day II of ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi, UAE began on an even busier note and one group that's making quite a lot of the noise is the techies. Microsoft, Google, Amazon Web Services - you name it - are all here! Spokespersons and sales people of many are telling yours truly that "big data" is the new oil, and well ...err .... doubly so for oil, gas and energy companies clubbed together. 

Much of the chatter they are offering is about utilising cloud computing, and, of course, pitching innovations in new areas such as machine learning, artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT) and serverless computing for energy operations. Not to be left behind, hardware sellers are offering the energy sector custom-designed processors, chips, workstations, platforms and advanced robots.

Parking the noise from the techies aside, the day also saw yet more ministers and officials offer soundbites and rub shoulders with energy CEOs, movers and shakers. Before the final Day IV is out on October 5, around 40 odd ministers would have spoken here. Among them India's Energy Minister Hardeep Singh Puri who said on Tuesday that his country can cope with a $100 oil price should it happen but the development was likely to be "recessionary" for the rest of the world. (More here on Forbes)

Among other developments, ADIPEC delegates were also told that Abu Dhabi would soon be taking its 2GW capacity solar farm located in its Al Dhafra region online. When it does go online, the farm might well be the fourth largest in the world (More here on Forbes)

Meanwhile, Ashraf Al Ghazzawi, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Corporate Development at Aramco opined that the energy transition is far from straightforward, particularly for a nation like Saudi Arabia. 

"First, you have to appreciate the global energy system's scale and magnitude. You're talking about a global energy system of about 270 million barrels of oil equivalent. This system energises a $100 trillion global economy. If you fast forward to 2050, the global economy will double to $200 trillion with, give or take, two billion additional energy consumers coming.

"So any discussion, any plan on energy transition, will have to acknowledge the complexity and the magnitude but also understand that our assumptions and premises have to be underpinned with realistic expectations, realistic solutions and realistic paths towards the energy transition."

And finally, the Oilholic participated in another two sessions on the day. The first of these - held under ADIPEC's Decarbonisation Strategy Conference Stream - was titled "Carbon tax vs. subsidies: what is the best regulatory method to accelerate emissions reduction?" As the title suggests, a lively discussion on the two policy measures that can be used to accelerate emissions reduction followed, and of course free market solutions too. 

Panellists included (left to right), The Oilholic, Dr Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy,  Arne Peder Blix, CEO of ICA Finance, Emmanuel Givanakis, CEO of ADGM Financial Services Regulatory Authority, Georges Tijbosch, CEO and Board Member of MiQ and Thomas McMahon, Co-CEO & Co-Founder of ACX.

Later on a busy afternoon, yours truly also hosted a second session under the Digitalisation in Energy stream titled "EV charging: Driving new energy business models powered by data insights." 

It involved a discussion of how energy retailers are leveraging data insights to generate new EV business models and drive the energy transition. The all star cast of this pivotal discussion included Fiona Howarth, CEO of Octopus Electric Vehicles, Amr Adel, Regional VP for Asia at Shell Recharge, Alaa El Huni, Chief Business Officer of CAFU and Dr. Fan Zhu, Chief Technology Officer, Bayanat. 

All in all, a hectic but rewarding Day II of ADIPEC. And that's a wrap. More to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: (1) ADIPEC 2023's theme of  "Decarbonisation. Faster. Together" on marquee at Abu Dhabi NEC, UAE (2) ADIPEC's Decarbonisation Strategy Conference Stream panel on "Carbon tax vs. subsidies: what is the best regulatory method to accelerate emissions reduction?" © Gaurav Sharma 2023.

ADIPEC Day I: "Decarbonising. Faster. Together"

The Oilholic is delighted to be back at ADIPEC 2023 after a gap of four years, and one virtual ADIPEC (2020) during the Covid pandemic. The tagline this year is rather unique "Decarbonising. Faster. Together" - and one that yours truly, and one suspects 160,000-plus delegates who'd be visiting the event are unlikely to miss. 

It's on banners, flags, posters, flyers, magazines, websites and broadcasts - in short if you are in town, you are unlikely to miss it. 

But what does it all mean? For Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber - ADNOC's boss and the country's Minister of Energy and Advanced Technology, and one might add the President-designate of COP28 - it all about an energy transition that's "just, orderly, equitable and responsible." More on that here via this blogger's latest Forbes post. But kudos from a branding perspective as "Decarbonising. Faster. Together" is just as catchy in 2023, as "Oil and Gas 4.0" was back in 2019. 

Something's of course never change. China has yet again sent a humongous delegation to town with a number of exhibitors, major energy outfits, businesspersons, subject matter experts and dignitaries whose presence you simply cannot miss. 

There are also another 29 country pavilions to visit. Around 1,600 speakers are in town, present company included, and 10 parallel conference streams, two of which the Oilholic will have four sessions in (More details here). The "Make It In The Emirates" theme - encouraging the UAE's domestic industry and manufacturing - also looms large and proud around ADIPEC corridors. 

This blogger also hosted the first of his panel sessions at ADIPEC 2023, titled: "The twin transition: policy alignment between the green and digital agendas," i.e. the simultaneous shift towards a more sustainable and digital economy. 

This engaging discussion included panellists Andrei Covatariu, Co-Chair, Task Force on “Digitalization in Energy” and Vice-Chair of the Group of Experts on Energy Efficiency, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe; Allyson Anderson Book, Chief Sustainability Officer, Baker Hughes and Leonid Zhukov, VP of Data Science, BCG-X and Director of BCG Global AI Institute. 

That's all for the moment folks as we're just getting started in Abu Dhabi. More to follow soon! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: (1) Entrance to ADIPEC 2023, Abu Dhabi, UAE, (2) Pavilions of companies from China. © Gaurav Sharma 2023.

ADIPEC panel sessions to be hosted by yours truly

The Oilholic will be moderating and speaking on the following panel sessions at ADIPEC 2023. Join if you can for some fantastic industry dialogues with great subject matter experts. 

October 3, 2023: Decarbonisation Strategic Conference 

Tuesday, October 3, 2023 @11:45am UAE

Carbon tax vs. subsidies: What is the best regulatory method to accelerate emissions reduction?

(Click image to enlarge for details)

---------------------------

October 2-4, 2023: Digitalisation in Energy Innovation Sessions

Monday, October 2, 2023 @13:00pm UAE

The twin transition: policy alignment between the green and digital agendas

Panel:

Andrei Covatariu, Co-Chair, Task Force on “Digitalization in Energy”, Vice-Chair of the Group of Experts on Energy Efficiency, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

Allyson Anderson Book, Chief Sustainability Officer, Baker Hughes 

Leonid Zhukov, VP of Data Science, BCG-X and Director of BCG Global AI Institute, BCG

Gaurav Sharma, Energy Market Analyst & Senior Contributor, Forbes

---------------------------

Tuesday, October 3, 2023 @14:00pm UAE

EV charging: driving new energy business models powered by data insights

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Wednesday, October 4, 2023 @14:30pm UAE

Future cyber security solutions: towards a ‘zero-trust’ energy system

1-on-1 discussion: 

Saravan Penubarthi, CTO, AIQ

Gaurav Sharma, Energy Market Analyst & Senior Contributor, Forbes

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photos: © Adipec, dmg events 2023.

Oil in the $90s, Reimagining BP without Looney & more

What a difference a fortnight makes - for this blogger was musing end-August on how oil benchmarks were pretty much staying rangebound in the absence of drivers and looking for direction. That driver arrived in the shape of an extension of Saudi-Russian output cuts till the end of 2023 merely a few weeks later. 

Whatever their motivation might be, Riyadh and Moscow have decided that they will not let the market go into surplus mode as the Northern Hemisphere's winter approaches. End result - even the WTI front-month futures contract is finding support above $90 per barrel, and for its part Brent is flirting with $94/95 levels. 

Should we therefore conclude that a return of $100 oil prices is imminent for the first time since July 2022 despite a high interest rate climate, tepid economic activity in China and wider consumer anxiety? The short answer is - yes (barring an unforeseen macroeconomic upheaval), and particularly so, for global proxy benchmark Brent.

In fact, the question right now shouldn't be whether oil will get to $100 levels, but rather whether it would stay there? Of that, one is not too sure. Current price levels of futures contracts six month out point to a different story, and different a demand (and supply) dynamic for Q2 2024. Here are the Oilholic's thoughts on market direction via Forbes. 

Away from the direction of the oil price, the market for blue chip energy stocks got a shock after BP's social media loving CEO Bernard Looney suddenly resigned late on Sept 12 over his failure to fully disclose details of "past relationships" with colleagues! What might follow next for BP could be pivotal - will it continue down the path set by Looney or mark a return in focus to core oil and gas operations? (More here.)

Finally, this blogger also found the chance for two exclusive Forbes interviews earlier this month with Jim Johnson, CEO of engineering group Hunting Plc, and Christopher Hudson, President of dmg events. Click on the hyperlinks above should you wish to read these. But that’s all for now, for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it crude!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: Kristina Kasputienė from Pixabay2

Crude oil stuck in the $80s, Europe's LNG woes & more

We're four months from the end of crude trading year 2023 and oil prices appear to be stuck at $80+ per barrel levels. And for all the market chatter of $100 per barrel oil prices, a July and early August rally, tightness in the physical market and all else in between - there seems to be no convincing bullish or bearish pattern either way. So here are one's musings on the direction of travel and what hedge funds are up to via Forbes. 

The global crude market for all intents and purposes remains challenging. Tight physical supply in the wake of Saudi and Russian cuts, unexpected industry outages and summer demand can only do so much to support higher prices when the wider economic climate remains dicey in a high interest setting. Simply put, as long as global central banks remain hawkish, the crude market is unlikely to fire up to levels (shall we say three figures) the perma-bulls hope for. 

Away from crude prices, here are some thoughts on the Europe's LNG woes, the jet fuel market and the rapidly dwindling 'war windfall' of oil and gas majors. Away from musings on Forbes, the Oilholic is busy getting back on the speaking circuit, resuming dialogues with energy industry movers and shakers for market insights, offering analysis on international broadcasts, and more. All in all - it's been a hectic four weeks. But fear not, blogging here will also pick up pace shortly. Just getting a few things on track for the exciting road ahead. That's all for now folks! More soon! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo © Image by Terry McGraw from Pixabay. 

On Guyana & other 'crude' musings

As the month of July comes to a close, it seems the Saudis have indeed achieved near-term success with global oil benchmarks - Brent and WTI - now above $80 per barrel. It's a price level that Riyadh can live with. Although it is worth wondering at what cost (i.e. the good old debate about losing market share vs propping up the market without the help of friends / foes)? 

On a related note, while for much of OPEC+ the recent uptick in crude prices may come as a relief, for one new non-OPEC kid on the crude exploration block it has the makings of a spectacular boost in fortunes - Guyana. Here are the Oilholic's thoughts via Forbes on this micro-state in Latin America, with a population of less than a million people, and its full-blown oil boom. 

Guyana's headline crude production which came in at less than 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) as recently as 2020 has grown nearly four-fold to just shy of 383,000 bpd in 2023, and is still growing, according to the country's Ministry of Natural Resources. That said all the market chatter of it either joining or being asked to join OPEC is a load of nonsense that been denied by the oil producers' organization itself.

Elsewhere in the Oilholic's world, yours truly offered his perspective market perspectives on CGTN and Asharq Business News following the conclusion of the OPEC International Seminar earlier this month, and noted OMV's potential recoverable natural gas find of approximately 48 TWh, or 28 million barrels of oil equivalent. This discovery carries the potential to alter the natural gas market in Central Europe, and is Austria's largest gas discovery in the last 40 years. So watch this space! That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo © Image by Omni Matryx from Pixabay. 

On crude demand & the OPEC seminar’s conclusion

On a calmer second and concluding day of the OPEC Seminar, participants and deliberators' thoughts moved away from obsessing about the oil price and market stability, to pragmatic discussions on a more just and equitable energy transition. And, of course, to the energy sustainability trilemma (sustainability, security and affordability) - i.e., how focusing on one aspect at the cost of the other could have - in the words of many participants - "disastrous" consequences.

Of course, many spokespersons representing developing world producers at the gathering felt they need no lectures from the developed nations; and had every right to tap into the wealth of their hydrocarbons to improve their economic fortunes. No doubt an emotive subject for many, especially since no one can convincingly call time on hydrocarbons anytime soon.

The way the Oilholic views it – human mobility, mainly ground transportation, is unquestionably and increasingly heading in the direction of electric mobility. However, there are no obvious solutions or substitutes for petrochemicals, for aviation, for heavy mining and industry, for the cosmetics value chain, and many other facets of the global economy. So renewable energy, and electric mobility are the low hanging fruits, but what and where next, and how fast? 

BP’s Boss Bernard Looney told the seminar: “Oil and natural gas will continue be a part of the world’s energy mix for several decades to come.” How then do you balance investments in hydrocarbons versus the capex involved in moving away from them, at what pace, and using what proportionalities?

For instance, as the United Arab Emirates' Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei pointed out – current
global oil demand is north of 100 million barrels per day (bpd), and every year the energy industry needs to invest to prevent the depletion of around 8 million bpd.

OPEC puts the figure at $12.1 trillion to 2045 or $500 billion per year. Projection figures can vary from forecaster to forecaster. It's not the amount of money that’s the subject of the most heated debates both in Vienna and beyond, it’s what approach to take over the coming decades. For that there is neither a unified approach nor any sort of magic wand solution. And so the debate rages on, as it did at the OPEC Seminar, and as COP28 approaches with United Arab Emirates, a major hydrocarbon producer being the host nation (as were coincidentally the last two – Egypt and Scotland). So plenty to ponder over. 

And on that note, it’s time to bid goodbye to Vienna. Just before one takes your leave, here’s the Oilholic’s latest Forbes missive on how/why Saudi Arabia remains committed to unilateral cuts, and why the oil price isn’t quite firing up. More analysis to follow over the airwaves in the coming days on what was discussed here, but that’s all for now. Keep reading, keep it crude! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo © Gaurav Sharma, July 7, 2023.

All about crude "market stability"

The Oilholic arrived at the first day of the OPEC International Seminar to find the oil producers' group in a belligerent mood led by kingmaker Saudi Arabia. The kingdom's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said recent OPEC+ actions demonstrate the strength of the partnership and teamwork with Russia. 

Furthermore, he uttered two words that shaped the entire day - "market stability". Addressing delegates, Abdulaziz said his country will do whatever it takes to ensure it, and looks like Riyadh is not ditching its stance of unilateral voluntary oil production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in a huff. Though Abdulaziz did go to some length to say the Kingdom's current stance does imply it was returning to its 1980s swing producer status.

His address followed that of several of his OPEC ministerial peers repeatedly mentioning the need for "market stability" - cue a higher crude price, perhaps one that's above $81 per barrel the Saudis need to balance their budget. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei chimed in by adding that if anything OPEC deserves an even larger market share in a "balanced" energy market, and added that market commentary on the group's intentions had been a tad er....unbalanced. 

And not to be outdone, Azerbaijan's Minister of Energy Parviz Shahbazov quipped that if OPEC+ or OPEC didn't hypothetically exist as groups, "we would need to create them" across the energy value chain, and not just oil, in the interests of well, you guessed it - "market stability". 

But one of the main reasons a higher oil price that OPEC+ craves is proving elusive is down to the 6 million bpd of Russian oil that is still finding its way to the market despite a near absence of Western buyers, and India and China duly obliging by importing copious amounts it. 

Canada, Guyana, US, Brazil and Norway are all also pumping more. But the biggest weight on the crude price is the uncertain economic climate and the hawkish stance of global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve. More to follow from Vienna, but that's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it crude! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo © Gaurav Sharma, July 5, 2023.

Back on a road (err...flight path) well travelled!

It's nearly time for BA706 - a very familiar British Airways flight number as far as the Oilholic's travels go. For after a gap of over three years in earnest, the Oilholic is back on a 'crude' road (err...flight path) well travelled and heading to the 8th International OPEC Seminar in Vienna, Austria. The core subject for deliberations is "Towards a sustainable & inclusive energy transition" and yours truly is looking forward to a fascinating few days of international dialogues. 

One must say, waiting for a flight to the Austrian capital once again for an OPEC gathering after gap years spent in the "in-house" corporate world brings a renewed sense of excitement and anticipation, eagerness to reconnect with old friends in energy analysis community and make new friends. 

Prevalent energy market conditions are miles apart from where we were in a pre-Covid world in March 2020 (scene of the last crime....err...visit). And who can forget the negative WTI oil price that followed in April 2020. Furthermore, energy transition is high on the agenda in a changed (hopefully pragmatic) world. So cheers to it all. 

To warm up, and prior to embarking on this journey, yours truly has fired a few missives via Forbes. Based on the Oilholic's reading of the current market situation and macroeconomic climate, oil prices remain rangebound and stuck in $70s for Brent (More here). 

And here are yours truly's thoughts on Shell's dividend hike and return to 'crude' basics. If sustainable investment trusts, learning more about Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions and OPEC's June meeting are topics of interest, you can find your way there via the Oilholic's Forbes profile (details below). But that's all for now, and for the moment folks. Am BACK! So keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo © Gaurav Sharma, July 4, 2023.

Glimpses of the 23 WPC 2021 in Houston

The 23rd World Petroleum Congress (WPC) – widely regarded as the oil and gas industry's most prestigious and high profile global event – returned to Houston, Texas, US this week. It's taking place from December 5-9, 2021. Often described as the "Olympics" of the energy business, the World Petroleum Congress has been held since 1933 when London hosted its first round. 

From 1991 onward, the event has gone on to be held every three years. After a COVID-19 enforced delay in 2020, which pushed the event forward by a year to December 2021, Houston hosted the event for a second time, having previously hosted the 12th WPC in 1987. This blogger is privileged to be here and delighted to bring you some glimpses of this prestigious event. 

The 23rd World Petroleum Congress (23 WPC) floor in Houston, Texas, US

The 1.8m sq ft George R. Brown Convention Center in downtown Houston is the venue of 23 WPC 

Exhibition floor of the 23 WPC

ExxonMobil's stand at the 23 WPC exhibition

NASA's Space Exploration Vehicle on display at the 23 WPC

Sonya Savage, Minister of Energy of Alberta, Canada (left) calls for an honest conversation on the need for oil & gas as the world transitions to a low carbon economy

Boston Dynamics' RoboDog 'Spot' vows visitors at the 23 WPC

It is all about keeping the youth interested & having viable STEM pathways to avert a talent gap crisis in the oil & gas business, as deliberated by this panel

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (right) visits the 23 WPC exhibition floor

© Gaurav Sharma 2021. Photo © Gaurav Sharma, December 2021.

Glimpses of GMIS 2021

As we embark on a post-COVID journey, it is heartening to note that energy, industry and manufacturing events are gradually returning to the physical format with all of us having had enough of endless Zoom conferences in lockdown. One such signature fixture that's back with a bang is the Global Manufacturing and Industrialisation Summit (GMIS), established in 2015, to further dialogues on the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s transformative potential. 

A joint initiative between United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology of the United Arab Emirates, GMIS 2021 has returned to the physical format from November 22 to 27, 2021 in Dubai alongside the Dubai Expo 2020. Here are some glimpses of the ongoing event: 

Dubai Exhibition Centre where GMIS & Expo 2020 are being held

'Make it in the Emirates' & GMIS2021 going hand in hand 

US Climate Envoy John Kerry (right) & ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber get the lowdown on RoboRace car at GMIS2021

CEO of Mubadala Khaldoon Al Mubarak tells US journalist John Defterios that the UAE is going big on AI investment

Vision of making Dubai a solar powered City

© Gaurav Sharma 2021. Photo © Gaurav Sharma, November 23, 2021.

Murban futures launch, OPEC+ and Q1 2021

The first crude quarter of 2021 threw up a number of interesting developments for the oil markets, from fluctuating price sentiments to a divergence of views on the global supply-demand dynamic. More on market permutations later, but the Oilholic would like to kick-off this post by flagging a historic development that carries the potential of bringing about profound changes to the crude futures market – the launch of the Murban Futures contract.

It had been long-time coming with ambitions for the contract launch first surfacing early in 2019, and official confirmation arriving later that year. Market upheaval caused by the Covid-19 pandemic pushed the launch forward to 2021, when on March 29 the contract launched with a debut price of $63.43 per barrel. 

And with it history was made – Murban, traded on IntercontinentalExchange Futures Abu Dhabi, is the world's first futures contract predicated on the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (ADNOC) flagship onshore crude oil. It means the offered market positions are directly linked to a major regional production centre. 

Alongside ADNOC as its backer, are nine of the world's largest energy traders including BP, ENEOS, GS Caltex, INPEX, PetroChina, PTT, Shell, Total and Vitol. Their hope is that physical oil traders use it as a benchmark, and price quality differentials off it accordingly as is the case with Brent. If physical traders are convinced that the new benchmark is reasonably liquid, it would take liquidity away from WTI, Brent and Dubai crude.

That is no mean feat and there have been previous false dawns in the region. To improve the odds of the benchmark's success, ADNOC has removed destination restrictions on the crude setting Murban apart from its regional competitors who have historically been bogged down by such limitations. And Asian refiners will now have a direct means to hedge against shifts in the price of Murban, rather than using derivatives linked to Dubai crude.

Of late, ADNOC’s production levels have averaged above 2 million bpd, with half of it set aside for the export market. In Fujairah - the main delivery point for Murban - ADNOC is currently building underground storage caverns that will be able to hold 42 million barrels of crude, including Murban. This will further strengthen the physical barrel underpinning of Murban futures. All in all, a very noteworthy development that carries a reasonably high chance of success over the coming years. Here's the Oilholic’s more detailed take on the development via Forbes.

Switching tack from the debut of Murban futures to the crude world in general, bullish sentiment that took hold in November 2020 has catapulted oil prices from $40 to $60-plus levels for both Brent and WTI. There's now chatter of $100 per barrel medium-term prices and a spike to even $190 in certain circumstances if you are to believe JPMorgan. 

This is nothing short barmy chatter by the longs and is wildly optimistic. In terms of reconciling expected crude oil demand in a post-Covid world versus supply, the Oilholic reckons the paper market is running two to three quarters, or around $5 per barrel, ahead of the physical market. 

Economic output in key markets remains sluggish, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) does not expect crude demand to catch up with supply until the third quarter of 2021. As for OPEC+, while its market calls on March 4 and April 1 have been described as bullish, they are in truth really bearish. 

On March 4, OPEC+'s headline production cut level was pegged at 7 million bpd, along with an additional and surprising voluntary cut of 1 million bpd by Saudi Arabia alone. However, Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed to marginally increase their output to keep the OPEC+ peace.

And on April 1, OPEC+ said an additional 350,000 bpd will be added to production, with another 350,000 in June. From July, output will be increased by 450,000 bpd. Both OPEC+ announcements cheered the bulls. However, the market remains in real danger of getting ahead itself. That’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it crude!

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk 

© Gaurav Sharma 2021. Photo: Kristina Kasputienė from Pixabay

Oil will rally in 2021 but joy would be short-lived

Oh what a 'crude' year 2020 turned out to be as the Covid-19 pandemic ravaged the global economy and our lives, and even briefly created the aberration of negative oil prices back in April. Few would be unhappy to see the back of 2020, and the Oilholic is most certainly among them.

However, as a new trading year beckons, it is best cut out the din, and trade both the direction of the oil market as well as energy stocks with a level head. First off, all the doomsday oil demand decline scenarios from earlier in the year, of as much as 20 million barrels per day (bpd) on 2019 levels, simply did not materialise.

The actual figure is likely to be shy of 9 million bpd, which, while wiping out nearly a decade's worth of demand growth on an annualised basis, is nowhere near as catastrophic. Economic signals point to a rebound in post-pandemic demand when human mobility, consumption and core economic activity, especially in East Asia and the Indian subcontinent begin a rapid bounce back in 2021.

So what of the oil price? Using Brent as a benchmark, the Oilholic envisages a short-lived bounce to $60 per barrel before/by the midway point of the year, and on the slightest nudge that civil aviation is limping back to normal. However, yours truly firmly believes it won't last.

That's because the uptick would create a crude producers' pile-on regardless of what OPEC+ does or doesn't. Say what people might, US shale isn't dead and there remains a competitive market for American crude, especially light sweet crude, that will perk up in 2021.

Other non-OPEC producers will continue to up production on firmer oil prices as well. And finally, a Joe Biden White House would bring incremental Iranian barrels into play even if the return of the Islamic Republic's barrels is more likely to be a trickle rather than a waterfall. All of the above factors will combine to create a sub-$60/bbl median for the demand recovery year that 2021 will be. And the said price range of $50-60 will be just fine for many producers.

As for energy stocks, who can escape the battering they took in 2020. By the Oilholic's calculations, valuations on average fell by 35% on an annualised basis, and nearly 50% for some big names in the industry. 

However, based on fundamentals, where the oil price is likely to average in 2021 (~base case $55/bbl), portfolio optimisation and an uptick in demand, yours truly expects at least a third of that valuation decline to be clawed back over the next 12 months. And depending on how China and India perform, we could see a 15-20% uptick.

Of course, not all energy stocks will shine equally, and the Oilholic isn't offering investment advice. But if asked to pick out of the 'crude' lot – the horses yours truly would back in 2021 would be BP and Chevron. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'! Here's to 2021!

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk

© Gaurav Sharma 2020. Photo: Terry McGraw/Pixabay

Additional ADIPEC Energy Dialogues

As revealed in July, for much of 2020 yours truly has been participating in the recording of the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) Energy Dialogues series. Here is a further selection from the series, also available via ADIPEC's YouTube channel and the event's website.

Recent sessions included informative discussions with Dr. Peter Terwiesch, President of Industrial Automation at ABB, Craig Hayman, Chief Executive Officer of AVEVA and Hugo Dijkgraaf, Chief Technology Officer of Wintershall Dea. 

Dr. Peter Terwiesch, President of Industrial Automation, ABB

Craig Hayman, CEO, AVEVA

Hugo Dijkgraaf, Chief Technology Officer, Wintershall Dea

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk

© Gaurav Sharma 2020. Video © ADIPEC / DMGEvents, UAE

Joining Citi Private Bank

Some personal news: After 16 years of scrutinizing #oil, #energy markets, felt I needed a change. Delighted to accept such an opportunity @Citi Private Bank at VP-level. I remain a 'crude' man but broadening analytical scope to EMs, circular economy, impact investing & more #OOTT

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) August 11, 2020

It has been a fantastic 'crude' journey for the Oilholic in the energy market and this blog has been with yours truly every step of the way for over a decade. Thank you all for your support. While long may that continue, commentary here would be a little tempered and slightly irregular as this blogger has taken up a Vice President / Lead Analyst's position at Citi Private Bank. 

Things won't be coming to a close here, but whatever appears on this blog would be in a private capacity only. That also applies to any commentary published here in the past prior to Aug 1, 2020. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

© Gaurav Sharma 2020.

Hosting ADIPEC Energy Dialogues

Over the last few months, yours truly has been participating in the recording of the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) Energy Dialogues series. Some of the recordings are now up. Here is a selection of them, also available via ADIPEC's YouTube channel and the event's website.

Recent conversations have included informative discussions with Morag Watson, SVP Digital Science & Engineering at BP, Jeff Zindel, Vice President and General Manager at Honeywell Connected Enterprise, Cybersecurity and Thomas Gangl, Chief Downstream Operations Officer, OMV.

Morag Watson, SVP Digital Science & Engineering at BP

Jeff Zindel, Vice President and General Manager at Honeywell Connected Enterprise, Cybersecurity

Thomas Gangl, Chief Downstream Operations Officer, OMV

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To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2020. Video © ADIPEC / DMGEvents, UAE

End of 'voluntary' Saudi cuts, no Covid-19 end in sight

In the lead up to the OPEC+ summit on June 6, oil benchmarks continued to rise toward $40 per barrel and subsequently went beyond. Brent even capped $42 levels briefly as OPEC+ decided to predictably rollover ongoing crude production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) - scheduled to end on July 1 - by another month. 

All of it was accompanied by the common din of crude oil demand returning, underpinned by hopes of China reverting to its average importation rate of around 14 million bpd by end-2020. Such an assumption is fanciful in the Oilholic’s humble opinion, as a semblance of normalcy, especially in the aviation sector, is unlikely before Q1 2021. But even that assumption was further punctured by Saudi Arabia withdrawing its additional 'voluntary' cuts of 1 million bpd in June, atop what they were already cutting as part of the OPEC+ agreement. 

To quote Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman: "The voluntary cut has served its purpose and we are moving on. A good chunk of what we will increase in July will go into domestic consumption."

Be that as it may be, that's bearish joy for those with short positions who can now also count on rising sentiment in favour of a second wave of the Coronavirus or Covid-19 hammering crude oil demand, with rising cases in the U.S. and as well as a fresh outbreak in China. So, oil futures have duly retreated from $40 levels.

However, here's what this blogger doesn't get – how can it be all about a possible second wave, when the initial pandemic is far from over! Just look at the official and anecdotal data coming out of India and Brazil. 

And while European pandemic hotspots might be cooling down, the initial threat is far from over. A crude market recovery remains a long, long way off. The Oilholic reckons it will be Q1 2021 before we get into a proper recovery mode and can think of a nuanced reversal in market fortunes. By that argument near-term volatility is likely be in $30-40 range, unless Covid-19 situation escalates. To assume the only way is up from $40 is pretty daft. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it crude!

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To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2020. Image by Omni Matryx from Pixabay.