CERAWeek Day III: On peak oil demand & more

As the end of day III of CERAWeek nears, for the Oilholic one panel session stood out in particular - Oil Demand: How will it look in a decade? This emotive and extremely polarizing subject turned hot late last year after the International Energy Agency issued a forecast predicting a peaking of oil demand in the 2030s. 

Naturally, OPEC blasted the IEA and said demand would continue to grow for many, many years. It also offered a bullish scenario of 116 million barrels per day in global oil demand by 2045. 

If the Oilholic were to offer his tuppence, oil will indeed continue to be a major part of the energy landscape not just for many years, but many decades. The stark reality of the matter is that no one can say for sure when oil demand will peak whether it is the IEA or OPEC. 

But kudos for the CERAWeek panelists to have at least tried. They included names familiar to the readers of this blog - Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of International Energy Forum and Jeff Currie, a former Goldman Sachs partner and Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle. 

Both were joined by Fred Forthuber, President of Oxy Energy Services, and Arjun Murti, Partner, Energy Macro and Policy at Veriten, and another former Goldman Sachs executive. The discussion was as lively as it gets. Here's the Oilholic's full report on the goings-on of the panel via Forbes. 

The panel followed a related quip by Shaikh Nawaf al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Company, earlier in the day's proceedings. He told delegates that global energy demand will increase faster than the population growth rates through to 2050. "That means that we're going to require more energy intensity for the population in the world."

KPC's answer - why of course - increase its production capacity to 4 million bpd by 2035 from its current level of 3 million bpd. 

See, again the thing here is (as asserted earlier by yours truly), if the various forecasters can't even agree on what demand growth will be like at the end of 2024 (with the IEA predicting 1.3 million bpd and OPEC predicting 2.25 million bpd) - how can they predict for sure what the approaching horizon may look like in 2030! And on that note, it's time to say goodbye. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: CERAWeek 2024 panel on - Oil Demand: How will it look in a decade? © Gaurav Sharma, March 2024. 

OEG Energy site visit & a 'crude' chat with its boss

Last week The Oilholic headed to sunny Scotland for a very interesting visit to one of OEG Energy's industrial sites in Aberdeen, with none other than its Chief Executive John Heiton. 

The scene of the walkabout was the global mission critical offshore logistics group's state-of-the-art Cairnrobin chemical plant.

This impressive six acre site, just south of Aberdeen's city centre, serves as OEG's storage, servicing and processing hub for a wide range of chemicals and aviation fuel on behalf of a veritable-who's-who of the energy business. It was fascinating to observe the place, its personnel, their processes and top-notch North Sea standard protocols on safe and secure handling of their operational tanks. 

The site visit was followed by a long overdue conversation with Heiton about how he is reshaping OEG along two offshore business silos under one group umbrella - traditional offshore energy and renewables. As it appears, after three years of painstaking work and over a dozen acquisitions, in 2023 the company managed the milestone of a near 50%/50% split in revenue between its traditional and renewables units. 

Heiton described it as the inexorable direction of travel for OEG, with double-digit growth expected for OEG's renewables business over the near-term, and solid single-digit growth for traditional energy boosted by operations in emerging oil and gas extraction hubs like Guyana and Suriname, and established ones in Africa and the Middle East. 

The OEG boss - who's company has its footprints in over 60 global locations - also said he'd encountered the same hike in shipping rates between Asia and Europe via the Red Sea as the readers of this blog (and The Oilholic's sources in Singapore) report, i.e. an uptick of 300% to 350% since November! 

That's when attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels began on international energy and commercial shipping in the key maritime artery. 

"However, shipping rates from Australia to China have also gone up and there are no security issues there! So while some of the cost hike (since November) is related to the troubles in the Red Sea, shipping lines may also be using it as an excuse," Heiton said. 

On the subject of oil demand growth in 2024, OEG is going with the International Energy Agency's conservative forecast of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd). "Part of it has to do with operational prudence in going for the lower end of global oil demand growth forecasts, rather than much higher forecasts out there. 

"However, where demand growth goes this year does not materially impact us as a business because a lot of global spare capacity is onshore based. Volume produced by the offshore fields we service doesn't make much of a difference to us as a critical logistics provider. They'd ultimately still require broadly similar levels of outsourced services we provide to the facility/platform in question."

Away from the exclusive snippets for this blog, do read The Oilholic's full interview with Heiton for Forbes here. It offers a much wider perspective on OEG's journey as a company in recent years. That's all for now folks, more blogging to follow later this week. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo 1: John Heiton, Chief Executive of OEG Energy (left) with Gaurav Sharma. Photo 2: Specialist storage tanks at OEG Cairnrobin Chemical Plant, Aberdeen, UK, February 2024. 

Can oil really hit $150? (And more!)

As the current crude oil trading year enters its final two months marked by festive breaks and potentially higher consumer demand as the Northern Hemisphere's winter approaches - thoughts inevitably turn to what price levels we will likely encounter in 2024.

With hostilities in the Middle East failing to lift crude prices despite all the talk of risk premiums and potential supply disruptions, being bullish about oil early in 2024 is proving hard. That's because concerns over crude demand are outweighing concerns over supply. 

We're talking muted demand from the economic powerhouses of Germany and China, lower consumer confidence levels in key OECD markets and elevated interest rate levels kept there by major global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve. 

It therefore came as a surprise to The Oilholic when the World Bank opined that crude prices could hit $150 if hostilities in the Middle East escalate! Here are this blogger's thoughts on that via Forbes. Simply put - don't hold your breath! 

And let's not forget, Brent hasn't even capped a more realistic $100 per barrel level the bulls crave. The benchmark's January 2024 contract is barely higher than current levels, and contracts further out into the summer of next year are even lower. That implies Brent remains in backwardation mode.

Away from the crude price, the latest quarterly earnings posted by energy majors provided plenty of talking points. More so, after the return of megadeals as ExxonMobil swooped for Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron swooped for Hess Corp. 

Other deals may follow as the energy majors fish for viable plays. It's led many, including this blogger, to wonder if a supermajor itself could be vulnerable? The prime candidate for finding itself in this position is BP; a chronically undervalued supermajor in the Oilholic's opinion. More on the subject here via Forbes. 

Is it possible? Yes, especially in a industry built on big ticket deals. Will it happen? Probably no, not least down to BP's $100 billion plus valuation (however discounted that may appear to some). But as yours truly noted on Forbes - that the company has had to bat away questions about being a takeover target is pretty extraordinary and indicative of how far it has fallen. Well that's all for now folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: Oil pump jack model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma October 2023. 

On crude demand & the OPEC seminar’s conclusion

On a calmer second and concluding day of the OPEC Seminar, participants and deliberators' thoughts moved away from obsessing about the oil price and market stability, to pragmatic discussions on a more just and equitable energy transition. And, of course, to the energy sustainability trilemma (sustainability, security and affordability) - i.e., how focusing on one aspect at the cost of the other could have - in the words of many participants - "disastrous" consequences.

Of course, many spokespersons representing developing world producers at the gathering felt they need no lectures from the developed nations; and had every right to tap into the wealth of their hydrocarbons to improve their economic fortunes. No doubt an emotive subject for many, especially since no one can convincingly call time on hydrocarbons anytime soon.

The way the Oilholic views it – human mobility, mainly ground transportation, is unquestionably and increasingly heading in the direction of electric mobility. However, there are no obvious solutions or substitutes for petrochemicals, for aviation, for heavy mining and industry, for the cosmetics value chain, and many other facets of the global economy. So renewable energy, and electric mobility are the low hanging fruits, but what and where next, and how fast? 

BP’s Boss Bernard Looney told the seminar: “Oil and natural gas will continue be a part of the world’s energy mix for several decades to come.” How then do you balance investments in hydrocarbons versus the capex involved in moving away from them, at what pace, and using what proportionalities?

For instance, as the United Arab Emirates' Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei pointed out – current
global oil demand is north of 100 million barrels per day (bpd), and every year the energy industry needs to invest to prevent the depletion of around 8 million bpd.

OPEC puts the figure at $12.1 trillion to 2045 or $500 billion per year. Projection figures can vary from forecaster to forecaster. It's not the amount of money that’s the subject of the most heated debates both in Vienna and beyond, it’s what approach to take over the coming decades. For that there is neither a unified approach nor any sort of magic wand solution. And so the debate rages on, as it did at the OPEC Seminar, and as COP28 approaches with United Arab Emirates, a major hydrocarbon producer being the host nation (as were coincidentally the last two – Egypt and Scotland). So plenty to ponder over. 

And on that note, it’s time to bid goodbye to Vienna. Just before one takes your leave, here’s the Oilholic’s latest Forbes missive on how/why Saudi Arabia remains committed to unilateral cuts, and why the oil price isn’t quite firing up. More analysis to follow over the airwaves in the coming days on what was discussed here, but that’s all for now. Keep reading, keep it crude! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo © Gaurav Sharma, July 7, 2023.

Oil will rally in 2021 but joy would be short-lived

Oh what a 'crude' year 2020 turned out to be as the Covid-19 pandemic ravaged the global economy and our lives, and even briefly created the aberration of negative oil prices back in April. Few would be unhappy to see the back of 2020, and the Oilholic is most certainly among them.

However, as a new trading year beckons, it is best cut out the din, and trade both the direction of the oil market as well as energy stocks with a level head. First off, all the doomsday oil demand decline scenarios from earlier in the year, of as much as 20 million barrels per day (bpd) on 2019 levels, simply did not materialise.

The actual figure is likely to be shy of 9 million bpd, which, while wiping out nearly a decade's worth of demand growth on an annualised basis, is nowhere near as catastrophic. Economic signals point to a rebound in post-pandemic demand when human mobility, consumption and core economic activity, especially in East Asia and the Indian subcontinent begin a rapid bounce back in 2021.

So what of the oil price? Using Brent as a benchmark, the Oilholic envisages a short-lived bounce to $60 per barrel before/by the midway point of the year, and on the slightest nudge that civil aviation is limping back to normal. However, yours truly firmly believes it won't last.

That's because the uptick would create a crude producers' pile-on regardless of what OPEC+ does or doesn't. Say what people might, US shale isn't dead and there remains a competitive market for American crude, especially light sweet crude, that will perk up in 2021.

Other non-OPEC producers will continue to up production on firmer oil prices as well. And finally, a Joe Biden White House would bring incremental Iranian barrels into play even if the return of the Islamic Republic's barrels is more likely to be a trickle rather than a waterfall. All of the above factors will combine to create a sub-$60/bbl median for the demand recovery year that 2021 will be. And the said price range of $50-60 will be just fine for many producers.

As for energy stocks, who can escape the battering they took in 2020. By the Oilholic's calculations, valuations on average fell by 35% on an annualised basis, and nearly 50% for some big names in the industry. 

However, based on fundamentals, where the oil price is likely to average in 2021 (~base case $55/bbl), portfolio optimisation and an uptick in demand, yours truly expects at least a third of that valuation decline to be clawed back over the next 12 months. And depending on how China and India perform, we could see a 15-20% uptick.

Of course, not all energy stocks will shine equally, and the Oilholic isn't offering investment advice. But if asked to pick out of the 'crude' lot – the horses yours truly would back in 2021 would be BP and Chevron. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'! Here's to 2021!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2020. Photo: Terry McGraw/Pixabay

OPEC+ announces deeper cuts of 500kbpd

It's official - OPEC+ has decided to "deepen its cuts" by ~500,000 barrels per day (bpd), thereby upping its output reduction from 1.2 million bpd, 1.7 million bpd.

And if the new chief OPEC powerbroker Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is to be believed, and every participant well...err....participates, the market could well be looking at a real terms cut of 2.1 million bpd. 

That is wishful thinking and will be severely tested as the Saudis say OPEC+ compliance would be keen monitored. To this effect, OPEC will have an extraordinary meeting of ministers in March 2020, on top of its regular meeting in June. 

For its part Saudi Arabia will up its cuts "voluntarily" to 400,000 bpd (+167,000 bpd) bringing its headline production down to 9.744 million bpd. Errant Iraq has promised to cut 50,000 bpd. Nigeria, Libya and Iraq remain exempt, but Nigerian Minister Timipre Marlin Sylva said his country would be cutting production "voluntarily."

There seems to be no shortage of volunteers. Here are two other key quotes:

• "Signal we want market to take is that we are collectively showing readiness to rebalance the market, prevent heavy inventory buildup in Q1 2020," - Abdulaziz bin Salman.
• "Russia wants to avoid any oil market turbulence in 2020. We are not concerned with US shale, seeing signs of shale slowdown," - Russian Oil Minister Alexander Novak. 

Finally, the Saudi Minister sounded pretty peeved about getting a "battering from the media" about the Saudi Aramco IPO, adding that the company's valuation would hit $2 trillion very soon. And that's that; more composed thoughts upon the Oilholic's return to London, but that's all for the moment from OPEC folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo: Saudi Oil Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman speaks at the conclusion of the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, Austria © Gaurav Sharma December 6, 2019.

On OPEC discipline & deepening cuts

The Oilholic is back in Vienna, Austria for the 177th OPEC Ministers' meeting and their (now) regular haggling with 10 Russian led non-OPEC producers who've signed up to a collective cut of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).

With the cuts set to expire in March and the oil price nowhere near $70 per barrel using Brent as a benchmark, there is chatter here of deepening the cuts.

Ironically, these are being flogged to the media and analysts by Iraq; the one OPEC member that has hardly complied with its share of the cuts. However something is definitely afoot at Helferstorferstrasse 17. The reasons being a paucity of leaks, few unscheduled remarks, Iranians keeping mum despite being tetchy, and the media / analysts not being allowed "access to ministers" before their opening remarks to the conference, i.e. no "gang bang", only a "speech listening" at more than an arm's length. 

Most unusual level of discipline being shown by #OPEC ministers, sources, no leaks, 2 of my oldest sources keeping mum. Additionally, media/analysts will not have "direct access" to ministers at opening session. Is a deeper #oil production cut coming? #OOTT #oilandgas pic.twitter.com/zSrG3moK3E

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) December 5, 2019

From that has emerged the "deepening of cuts" figure of 500,000 bpd. Of course, no details have been provided, especially on the level of Russian compliance. Apparently the likes of Nigeria and Iraq would be squeezed to fall in line too, according to the rumour mill.

What's more is this 500,000 bpd cut a "paper adjustment" with compliance current over 140% or is the cut being upped to 1.7 million bpd? Not too sure, not convinced as convincing answers are not forthcoming.

And will that even work? The Oilholic seriously doubts it; simply because 2-2.5 million bpd of non-OPEC supply growth is expected next year, and there are deep rooted concerns over demand, as noted on Forbes. Still the OPEC show goes on, and we'll probably have some finality after the OPEC+ meeting concludes tomorrow (Dec 6). 

That's all for the moment from Vienna folks, but there's more to follow. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo: Media briefing room at OPEC's 177th Ministers' Meeting in Vienna, Austria on December 5, 2019 © Gaurav Sharma, 2019

Oil market in wait & see mode ahead of OPEC

The next OPEC+ ministers' meeting on December 5-6 is upon us, and the Oilholic's reading of the past few weeks does seem to suggest the oil market is in a holding pattern. More so as there has been little by way of resolution of the ongoing US-China trade spat. 

For many intents and purposes, trade concerns remain the key market driver, perhaps making OPEC a bit of a non-event. A rollover of the OPEC+ agreement - that has kept 1.2 million barrels per day of production - out of the market has already been priced in. So the only surprise to the upside would be if the producers' group introduces even deeper cuts; a scenario that on paper appears to be highly unlikely. 

Meanwhile, excluding a short-lived spike in the wake of the drone attack on Saudi Aramco, oil prices, using Brent as a benchmark, have largely remained range-bound at lower $60 per barrel levels oscillating between $58-$65 (see chart above left, click to enlarge). . OPEC's basket of 14 crude oils meanwhile is averaging just shy of $64 at the time of writing (see chart left, click to enlarge). 

While the OPEC meeting would be interesting from the standpoint of soundbites, this blogger is not holding his breath out for any substantial price movement. Continuing with the markets theme, yours truly also made several observations from the recently concluded ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi, for various publications, including OPEC's ongoing dilemma for Forbes. There's also the issue of oil demand, and while attention has been focussed on how the US-China trade spat is impacting it, here's the Oilholic's take on whether, and by how much, the proliferation of electric vehicles could stunt demand growth. 

Plenty of words were penned on the Aramco IPO too, but here's a piece - via Rigzone - on how Brit oil majors Shell and BP are attempting to add long-term value for shareholders. Additionally, here are the Oilholic's recent Forbes reports on ADNOC upping its digital drive and India's wooing of global energy investors as its energy demand continues to rise. 

Finally, here is the Oilholic's missive on another piece of industry process efficiency and optimisation kit that has just been successfully tested by ABB in waters off Vaasa, Finland. The global software industrial giant claims to have found the "holy grail" of offshore subsea power solutions via its joint industry project with Chevron, Equinor and Total.

Its latest power distribution and conversion technology system for energy companies will be able to provide a reliable supply of up to 100MW of power, over distances up to 600km out at sea and down to a whopping 3,000m water depth. 

ABB claims the system will need "little or no maintenance for up to 30 years following deployment" making oil and gas production feasible in far out and deep ocean environments. It'll be interesting to see the take up of the kit, and company sources have promised to update the market on a regular basis. 

And on that note, its time to end this blog post leaving you with a view of the waters of the Gulf of Bothnia, from Kalle's Inn, Finland (above right, click to enlarge);  a popular spot near Vaasa that the Oilholic visited before heading back home. From here you can catch the Northern Lights, maybe even rent one of the waterfront cabins for the night. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Graph I: Brent futures 3-month movement © BBC. Graph II: Average price tracker of OPEC crude oils basket. Photos: View of Gulf of Bothnia from Kalle's Inn, Finland © Gaurav Sharma 2019.

The crude question of post-OPEC compliance

The ministers have left town having announced OPEC’s first real-terms headline oil production cut in eight years, sending oil futures rocketing intraday by over 8%. Now that the Oilholic has gathered his thoughts, one feels the significance of such a move cannot be understated, but overstating carries perils too.

Starting with former point first; describing the announced cut of 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million bpd as ‘historic’ is about right. For starters, after many years, OPEC proved that it can get its act together, set aside political differences and come up with a cut. Admittedly, bulk of the production cut would come from Saudi Arabia, which would shoulder 486,000 bpd in cuts. 

However, willingness to participate came from across the OPEC board, with Iran also promising to temper its expectations rather than keep banging on about its stated ambition of hitting a production level of 4 million bpd. Furthermore, Indonesia, a net oil importer, unable to partake in the cut, suspended its membership, although truth be told it was farcical for it to have come back to OPEC last year. 

Additionally, at least on paper, OPEC has managed to extract concessions from non-OPEC producers as well, chiefly Russia. It seems we will see around 600,000 bpd of non-OPEC cuts, of which Russia would account for 300,000 bpd. The market awaits further details after an imminent meeting between the Russians and OPEC takes place, but it all seems positive for now. 

That said the crude world should temper its expectations. Announcing a production cut is one thing, getting OPEC and non-OPEC participants to carry it out is a different thing altogether. If one or more members fail to comply, the domino effect could be others going down the non-compliance path too. In a first of its kind, OPEC has set up a monitoring committee comprising of Algeria, Kuwait and Venezuela to keep tabs on the situation – and it has its work cut out. 

Of course, OPEC has no way of policing non-OPEC compliance and past experiences of extracting concessions from Russia haven’t really worked. We’ll know soon enough when data aggregators such as S&P Global Platts and Argus report back on cargo loadings in January and February. The events in Vienna will support the price for sure over the medium term – lifting it to the $55-60 range. However, what that does is support the US shale industry too. 

Of course, the projected price uptick is unlikely to drag US production levels to the dizzy heights of 2014, but the market should now brace itself for additional barrels from North American producers. Finally, before one takes your leave, here is some additional analysis in the Oilholic's latest Forbes post. With those crude thoughts, that’s all from Vienna folks. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2016. Photo: OPEC building exterior, Vienna, Austria © Gaurav Sharma, November 2016.

Crude markets post Brexit: Keep calm & carry on

Right after the OPEC summit, we went into the home strait of the UK’s June 23rd referendum on its membership of the European Union, which has resulted in a Brexit or to put it more blandly – Britain’s exit from the EU.

 

It drained the life out of talking about anything else, or writing about anything else or blogging about anything else. So please accept the Oilholic’s apologies for not responding on wider ‘crude’ affairs via this blog for much of the month.

 

The deed is done; the British public voted 52% to 48% in favour of exiting the European Union, and to quote one departing EU official – "what has been done cannot be undone." The development followed a predictable market kerfuffle, with some comparing or at least attempting to compare its aftermath to the Lehman Brothers collapse. As the Oilholic said on a recent broadcast, serious though it might be, it is not quite on that scale for the oil markets.

 

Oil will continue to lurk around the $50 per barrel level and struggle to cap that over the next six months, and much of it would have little direct connection to the Brexit vote. On the eve of the vote, yours truly looked at FX, oil and gold plays via a Forbes column, and did an oil market impact assessment or a crude Brexit post mortem exactly a week on from the outcome of the result.

 

Brexit’s only contribution has been to add to the prevailing market sentiment that oil demand growth will not quite fire up. Most demand growth projections, for instance those of the IEA and OPEC, are in the 1.2 – 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) range. The Oilholic suspects come the end of the year, even the lower end of that range might not be matched.

 

Brexit and the uncertainty in Europe would have some impact, but much of the oil market is reliant on emerging market demand and its direction should be the primary cause for concern. Europe accounts for only 15% of global trade. The direction of global trade and manufacturing is eastwards, by default so is the direction of the oil market.

 

Furthermore, there is still plenty of oil around according to physical traders. What was one of the biggest oil gluts of all time last year, will not be resolved in a matter of months. The Oilholic has always maintained that the oil market will not rebalance until much later into 2017 and the oil price will stick around $50 level until December.

 

Given that context, Brexit is just another crude problem, but not the only problem. Keep calm and carry on!

 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2016. Photo: Oil rig in South Asia © Cairn Energy.