Oil shed $10/bbl or 14% week-on-week on Trump Tariffs

Oil futures have taken a heavy pummelling in the wake of the so-called Trump Tariffs right down to four-year lows. That's after President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports to the US, and much higher rates of up to 50% against dozens of countries. 

With major manufacturing centers in Asia on the President's tariffs list published on April 2, both Brent and WTI front-month futures subsequently shed over $10 per barrel or 14% from the price they were trading at the day before the announcement.  

The extreme volatility has brought WTI down below $60 per barrel and Brent shy of $65. A modicum of market calm is unlikely in the short-term, more so as the President has vowed further tariffs against countries (e.g. China) who chose to retaliate. Indeed, there is relatively little to be bullish about oil at the moment. 

In fact, the Oilholic argues via an op-ed in Forbes that bearish sentiment was already entrenched in

crude markets heading in to the second quarter of 2025, before the President's move amplified it. 

So even when the tariff din subsides, it may be wise not to expect an overshoot past prices noted prior to Trump crude shock. (Here's more.)

Yours truly also offered his analysis on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, noting that the road ahead for crude markets will likely be very, very choppy thanks to uncertain demand in China, doubts over the performance of the global economy and lower levels of consumer confidence in key markets. The full interview (dubbed in Arabic) is available here. 

There's heavy uncertainty all around from the commodities market to equites, with real fears of an international trade war and a global recession. So, how much of a drag it turns out to be on near-term oil prices is anyone's guess. Oil futures will remain hostage to Trump's next move. 

Away from crude matters, the Oilholic also published his latest Energy Connects missive on the global digital economy being powered by natural gas for decades. Here's more, have a read on why all those hyperscale datacentres simply cant be powered by renewable energy alone for a good few decades if not more. 

Well that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV channel © Asharq Business, April 2025.

Discussing Blockchain at ISTrade 2018

Barely had the Oilholic returned from Panama, that it was time to head 1550 miles east to Istanbul, Turkey for ISTrade 2018: The 3rd Energy Trading and Supply Conference on the banks of the Bosphorus. 

Yours truly was invited to speak and moderate a panel on the digitisation of energy trading here with a heavy emphasis on - you guessed it blockchain; an emerging and perennially hot topic at energy trading events which are rapidly beginning to feel like technology events!

More on that later, but first on to 'crude' thoughts, and it seems feedback from the great and good of energy trading in Turkey, on this splash and dash work visit to the country, reconfirms one's thoughts that oil is likely to stay in relatively predictable price bracket of $60-70 per barrel, even if geopolitical risk briefly props it up to $70 per barrel. 

Away from the crude price, ISTrade 2018 delegates also noted how trading arms of 'Big Oil' companies, and established commodities trading houses like Vitol, Gunvor and Glencore and the likes, are investing in blockchain and are being exceptionally candid about it.

It set the scene nicely to discuss energy trading in relation to emerging technology, and the Oilholic's take was that it's a one way street to process efficiencies and optimisation. The market can expect more of the same. To discuss the subject, this blogger was joined on the panel by Ashutosh Shashtri, Director of EnerStrat Consulting and Serkan Sahin, Manager, Europe and Africa Oil and Gas Research at Thomson Reuters.

Elsewhere, at IStrade 2018, a plethora of crucial topics were discussed. Here is the Oilholic's detailed report for Forbes from the event. One final point, before taking your leave, is to flag up a Rystad Energy research note that arrived over the weekend. The independent energy research and consulting firm reckons US oilfield services have more to lose compared to Chinese peers from current trade tensions between both countries initially fanned by President Donald Trump.

On April 3, the US published a list of approximately 1,300 Chinese exports that could see tariffs in the near future. Not to be outdone, the Chinese government promised and delivered additional retaliation.

These potential Chinese tariffs include plastics, petrochemicals, petroleum products and specialty chemicals. "For an oil and gas industry looking to rebound in a higher oil price environment, these tariffs necessitate monitoring. More specifically, oilfield service companies must now take pause," says Matthew Fitzsimmons, Vice President of Oilfield Service Research at Rystad Energy.

American companies Clariant, Ecolab, Hexion and NOV each have had significant revenues from China in the past few years. NOV brought in revenues upwards of $561 million during 2017 from their fibreglass and composite tubular businesses in China.

"The giant service company NOV was anticipated to have over $650 million in annual revenues from China for the remainder of the Trump presidency. A trade war between the two nations could certainly impact their ability to grow in this market," Fitzsimmons adds. 

Hexion, a chemistry company offering oilfield drilling chemicals, had $309 million in revenue from China during 2017. Rystad Energy estimates Hexion's Chinese business could grow to $350 million in 2019, if it were not impacted by trade tariffs. Continued Chinese and American trade tensions could have an adverse effect on these companies.

While less volume is at stake, the trade tensions also give reason for concern to Chinese service companies. Hilong and Drill Pipe Master are two pipe fabricators that were impacted by initial US tariffs. However, these companies have strong domestic customers and diverse international clients that will soften adverse effects from trade tensions.

Well there you have it, although many here in Istanbul are hoping things would calm down between the Trump White House and China, with cooler heads prevailing eventually. That's all from Istanbul folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo1: Glimpses of ISrade 2018, April 9-10, Istanbul, Turkey © Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo 2: The Oilholic speaking at IStrade 2018.