ADIPEC Day III: On partnerships, progress & more

As Day III of ADIPEC gathered momentum and crowds grew bigger still, global crude oil markets were greeted with the news that Saudi Arabia and Russia would maintain their joint oil production cuts of 1.3 million bpd until the end of the year. However, that didn't stop global oil benchmarks from sliding lower faced with an uncertain demand picture and an ever stronger US dollar. 

Inside the conference halls, and away from the din of the global crude market, various speakers called for heathy and meaningful cross-sector partnerships to open viable energy transition pathways. These may ideally involve stakeholders from across energy industries, financiers, technologists, governments, academia, and, of course, the end-consumer. 

As Niall Hannigan, Chief Financial Officer of Masdar, noted in a panel on fast tracking finance and prioritising investments for the energy transition. "Investors need scale. They want to see a clear policy framework within a geography, underpinned by a stable, transparent regulatory regime. Governments won’t attract investors alone – we need regulators, developers, development banks and commercial banks in the room together to create a programme. That collaborative conversation is essential.”

For his part, the Oilholic marked Day III with a tech heavy outing. It included concluding one's final speaking engagement at ADIPEC 2023's Digitalisation in Energy conference stream with a one-on-one discussion with Saravan Penubarthi, CTO of AiQ, on the future of cybersecurity solutions for energy systems. 

Wrapped up my moderating duties at #ADIPEC2023 with a final Digitalisation in Energy session earlier today with Saravan Penubarthi, CTO of AiQ, on the future of #cybersecurity solutions for #energy systems. Great session, lovely audience at @Chevron Hall 14 #EnergyTransition pic.twitter.com/WDIc77ekQk

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) October 4, 2023

With panel sessions concluded, yours truly also took some time out to have a walkabout in the wider exhibition area spread over several halls. 

Getting going on Day III of @ADIPECOfficial 2023. Here's @Yokogawa's display on #decarbonizing, @ABB_Energy's EV charging station mock-up (& @bakerhughesco talk on sustainable solutions) in the background #ADIPEC2023 #EnergyTransition #OOTT pic.twitter.com/Im6PLyz1p0

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) October 4, 2023

And...also said goodbye to Chevron's Boston Dynamics robotic dog(s) this blogger has been walking by for the past few days :) 

And that's all for Day III, more tomorrow! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: (1) ADIPEC 2023 exhibition floor, Abu Dhabi, UAE, (2) Chevron's Boston Dynamics Robotic Dogs © Gaurav Sharma 2023.

Late one to early crude commotion at OPEC

So after having kept analysts and media in the OPEC Secretariat almost till midnight, and then not issuing a final brief, the producers' group has started day two with its planned OPEC and Non-OPEC meeting of ministers. 

The figure of a 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) deepening of the cuts remains on the cards, but whether it is a paper adjustment or a real-term cut remains to be seen. 

Even before proceedings began, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh left the meeting, with there being little sense in his sticking around given Tehran is exempt from the cuts. 

However, he did quip to journalists on his way out that the deal being brokered is indeed a "fresh cut". Inside the meeting hall, Russian Oil Minister Alexander Novak said the OPEC and non-OPEC agreement was working despite doubts expressed by sceptics, and his Saudi counterpart Abdulaziz Bin Salman asked for the "faith and mercy" of analysts and market commentators so that they don't "twist" numbers put out by OPEC+. (Yup, he really did!)

The oil market will have to believe OPEC+, and objective as well as cynical analysts will have to trust them, he added. Felt more like a sermon, and less like a statement, but hey - whatever works. More drama from here later in the day. But that's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo: OPEC and Non-OPEC Meeting Room, Vienna, Austria © Gaurav Sharma, December 2019. 

First quips & intraday soundbites from OPEC 175

It's the usual manic start to the 175th OPEC Ministers' Meeting here in Vienna, Austria. For those unfamiliar with the drill, here we go - a long queue of analysts and journalists, the Oilholic included, waiting to get in, followed a long queue to go up to see the ministers in the summit's conference room, followed by a mad dash to see them, followed by a media gang b..., I, er media scrum, and the security chucking everyone out! True to form manic wires and tweets follow, and Thursday (6 December) was no different.

Here are some highlights from the Oilholic's attendance and questioning of ministers in two media scrums - that of Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih and UAE Oil Minister and current OPEC President Suhail Al Mazrouei - embedded below via his twitter account:

Saudi #Oil Minister @Khalid_AlFalih insists no formal dialogue with US over #oil production levels, says there is appetite to 'reduce' production, dialogue not just about what #Russia & Saudi Arabia want #OOTT #oilandgas #OPEC pic.twitter.com/1yUgk8MKQO

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) December 6, 2018

#UAE will not use its spare crude production capacity to distort the #oil market, says @HESuhail #OOTT #oilandgas #OPEC pic.twitter.com/C5aVrK1oXU

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) December 6, 2018

And here is a link to Al Mazrouei's opening statement to the conference.

Putting it altogether, some summary points:

1) The Saudis are still denying any discussions were held with the Americans with regard to oil production levels. 

2) Data suggests Riyadh is pumping in excess of 11 million barrels per day (bpd).

3) An OPEC cut of 1 million bpd is likely (which would be below market expectations). 

4) All rather mum and diplomatic about Qatar's decision to quit OPEC. 

5) Saudi Arabia wants "all" participants to contribute to cut, Iran is against it, while Libya and Nigeria are exempt from it (as things stand). 

More from Vienna soon! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo: Start of the 175th OPEC Ministers' Meeting in Vienna, Austria on December 6, 2018 © Gaurav Sharma 2018. 

OPEC’s new deal: Fudgy math or fuzzy stats?

The deed is done and not a single Iranian appeared visibly riled in the end. Following the conclusion of OPEC's 174th Ministerial Meeting on Friday here in Vienna, Austria, the cartel announced a 'nominal' production hike of 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

But the futures market expected more and has gone into full bullish mode as the weekend approaches. At 18:32pm BST on Friday, the WTI front-month futures contract was at $68.77, up $3.23 or +4.93% and Brent was at $74.88, up $1.83 or +2.51%.

Both benchmarks more than recovered their overnight declines, as traders who – like the Oilholic – delved into the OPEC statement, encountered some real fudgy math or perhaps fuzzy stats. It seems all what OPEC has done is "insist" on 100% compliance with a 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) cut it put forward in November 2016. 

The cartel's claim is that some of its members 'overcut' due to their own enthusiasm, or due to circumstances, geopolitics or lack of investment (Latter cases to be read as Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela). 

According to OPEC, this meant that compliance with the cuts touched 152% in May, instead of 100% or 1.824 million bpd. So now all OPEC has asked its members to do is bring compliance down to 100%, or put 624,000 barrels back on to the market and not a million! 

Of course, as has become the norm for over a decade now, OPEC did not reveal which individual member will do what and who is or isn't partaking in the exercise. That's the compromise to keep Iran onside for the moment. Here is one's Forbes piece for a more detailed perspective; but it is a jolly old fudge here at Helferstorferstrasse 17.

And oh, by the way, Congo's request to join OPEC has been accepted. So, if there's an OPEC-Plus or a Super-OPEC, it'll have 25 members to begin with. That's all from Vienna for the moment folks! More tomorrow when OPEC chats to its 10 non-OPEC counterparts.Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo: Opec Secretariat, Vienna, Austria © Gaurav Sharma 2018

Seems to be a done deal at OPEC

The Oilholic is back in Vienna, Austria for the 172nd OPEC Ministers meeting, and this blogger's 10th year of covering 'crude' matters. Oh how time flies! 

However, on this occasion, it looks like a done deal here at Helferstorferstrasse 17, even before things have begun. 

Crude sources suggest Opec's ministerial committee has proposed an extension of output cuts ahead of a formal announcement on the matter. Here's one's IBTimes UK report on the matter. 

The source also suggested that leading oil market power brokers Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia have given the proposal their backing. Meanwhile, non-Opec producer Oman has said it is "not opposed" to the deal, but was seeking "more clarity and discussion" on the matter, according to newswire Reuters.

Elsewhere, the Kuwaitis are wondering if a 12-month extension to cuts was worth contemplating, something the Saudis and Russians would probably not agree to.

At 2:58pm BST, both oil benchmarks were broadly flat staying close to overnight ranges, with the Brent front-month contract at $54.24 per barrel, up 0.17% or 9 cents, and West Texas Intermediate up 0.02% or a cent at $51.46 per barrel.

Opec's formal announcement is expected at 4pm BST on Thursday. That's all for the moment from Vienna folks. Keep reading, keep it crude! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2017. Photo: OPEC secretariat, Vienna, Austria © Gaurav Sharma 2017.

The crude question of post-OPEC compliance

The ministers have left town having announced OPEC’s first real-terms headline oil production cut in eight years, sending oil futures rocketing intraday by over 8%. Now that the Oilholic has gathered his thoughts, one feels the significance of such a move cannot be understated, but overstating carries perils too.

Starting with former point first; describing the announced cut of 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million bpd as ‘historic’ is about right. For starters, after many years, OPEC proved that it can get its act together, set aside political differences and come up with a cut. Admittedly, bulk of the production cut would come from Saudi Arabia, which would shoulder 486,000 bpd in cuts. 

However, willingness to participate came from across the OPEC board, with Iran also promising to temper its expectations rather than keep banging on about its stated ambition of hitting a production level of 4 million bpd. Furthermore, Indonesia, a net oil importer, unable to partake in the cut, suspended its membership, although truth be told it was farcical for it to have come back to OPEC last year. 

Additionally, at least on paper, OPEC has managed to extract concessions from non-OPEC producers as well, chiefly Russia. It seems we will see around 600,000 bpd of non-OPEC cuts, of which Russia would account for 300,000 bpd. The market awaits further details after an imminent meeting between the Russians and OPEC takes place, but it all seems positive for now. 

That said the crude world should temper its expectations. Announcing a production cut is one thing, getting OPEC and non-OPEC participants to carry it out is a different thing altogether. If one or more members fail to comply, the domino effect could be others going down the non-compliance path too. In a first of its kind, OPEC has set up a monitoring committee comprising of Algeria, Kuwait and Venezuela to keep tabs on the situation – and it has its work cut out. 

Of course, OPEC has no way of policing non-OPEC compliance and past experiences of extracting concessions from Russia haven’t really worked. We’ll know soon enough when data aggregators such as S&P Global Platts and Argus report back on cargo loadings in January and February. The events in Vienna will support the price for sure over the medium term – lifting it to the $55-60 range. However, what that does is support the US shale industry too. 

Of course, the projected price uptick is unlikely to drag US production levels to the dizzy heights of 2014, but the market should now brace itself for additional barrels from North American producers. Finally, before one takes your leave, here is some additional analysis in the Oilholic's latest Forbes post. With those crude thoughts, that’s all from Vienna folks. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2016. Photo: OPEC building exterior, Vienna, Austria © Gaurav Sharma, November 2016.

He’s making an inventory, checking it twice...

Full of festive cheer, he’s making a crude inventory, checking it thrice, gonna find out whose Iranian (sorry naughty) and nice – Saudi oil minister is coming to town. Nah, not really! 

For what it’s worth Khalid Al Falih actually turned up pretty late on Tuesday, just on the eve of the 171st OPEC Ministers' meeting. Having initially told a Saudi newspaper, an Opec production cut may not be needed, speaking at a pre-conference media scrum, Al-Falih said a deal could be done and would need wider cooperation within OPEC.

Separately, Suhail Al Mazroui, oil minister of the United Arab Emirates, told yours truly, for an IBTimes UK interview, that the ongoing OPEC meeting was not a make or break scenario for the oil market.

Al Mazroui admitted the last few months had seen “intense” negotiations, but added that: "However, from all signs I have seen, things are positive." 

We shall see. The Oilholic believes a final decision would go right down to the wire, and puts the chance of an agreement only at 50%. Watch this space! More from Vienna shortly folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma, November 2016. Photo: Khalid Al-Falih, Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia, speaks to reporters at the 171st OPEC Ministers' Meeting in Vienna, Austria on 30 November, 2016 © Gaurav Sharma, 2016.

OPEC’s cut is not an oil market panacea

Manic few weeks of travel and speaking engagements meant the Oilholic could not pen his thoughts on the Saudi-Russian agreement over the need to lower oil production, and other OPEC shenanigans sooner. 

Plus the last fortnight has given much food for thought news-wise, with the oil price registering a noticeable uptick (see chart left, click to enlarge).

Forget, the world’s two leading producers, it appears all of unruly OPEC is onboard for a production cut too, going by recent soundbites. But is it? Really?

For starters, while the market has been told there is consensus among the cartel's members about the need to cut oil production; details on how OPEC would go about it would only be provided on 30 November, after the conclusion of it’s next ordinary meeting. 

It implies that until December, everyone within OPEC can keep pumping regardless, ahead of its pledge to limit “production to a range of 32.5m to 33m barrels per day (bpd).” Seeing is believing, as the old saying goes.

Secondly, how is OPEC going to enforce the quota? That's something it has been particularly poor at going by recent form. The market has not been given individual members’ quotas since 2008, and OPEC's latest monthly report acknowledges the prospect of rising production from Libya and Nigeria. 

So assuming Libya, Nigeria, Iraq and Iran would not partake in either cutting or freezing production – will it be left to Gulf oil exporters, led by the Saudis, to cut production? The Oilholic finds that very difficult to believe, but stranger things have happened. 

Thirdly, will the latest attempt succeed and are the Russians really in agreement this time around? That is anybody’s guess, but if it fails – OPEC and Russia will have a serious credibility problem for the future, as it would be the third attempt at capping crude production this year alone to falter. 

For all intents and purposes, it appears both OPEC and Russia are aiming for a $60 per barrel oil price. If that is their aspiration, it would suit North American players just fine, whose pain threshold - in the Oilholic's opinion - happens to be around $30 per barrel. 

Anyway you look at it, non-OPEC production will rise. So such short-term overtures, should they materialise, are bound to reap only short-term rewards. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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