The global proxy benchmark has pretty much stayed near the mark in the couple of market sessions we have had since, as traders get their first quarter antennae up to gauge the direction of travel. And, of course, factor in recent news of heightened US sanctions on Russia's oil exports.
Many are also factoring in higher US production levels in 2025. So the current firmness in Brent prices may prove to be short-lived.
Many of the curbs target what's described as a "shadow fleet" of ageing non-Western oil tankers that carry Russia's oil. It has sent China and India - two of the biggest buyers of Moscow's black gold - scrambling for alternatives while they work out the situation.
Extremely cold weather in the North Hemisphere, and an anticipation of tougher sanctions on Iran by an incoming Donald Trump administration are also providing an upside. However, wider market fundamentals have not shifted by much.
The dollar remains relatively strong, lack of clarity on where China's demand may eventually go this year persists and there is still plenty of non-OPEC oil out in the market to meet global demand growth projections just north of 1 million barrels per day.
Away from the oil market, yours truly also discussed Central Europe's natural gas conundrum following Ukraine's new year's eve decision to end Russian energy transit via its territory on CGTN earlier this month.
Basically, the old continent will need to find around 15 bcm of natural gas from elsewhere, which it can but at a considerably higher cost. (Full interview clip here).
Finally, switching tack to market related political developments, the year has begun with oil rich Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (finally) on his way out of office and an election on the horizon. Meanwhile, incoming US President Donald Trump has caused a stir revisiting his attempt to acquire the resource-rich and strategically important Arctic island of Greenland.
We're barely a week away from Trump entering the White House with massive implications for the energy market and beyond. And on that note, its time to say goodbye for now. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018.
