Ten years of 'crude' blogging & a big thank you!

Its a day to say thanks and feel a tad nostalgic, as the Oilholic woke up this Christmas eve morning to the realization that today marks 10 years of this oil and gas market blog's appearance on cyberspace!

Boy does time fly! When yours took this blog live and put his first post up on December 24, 2009, Barack Obama had been in the White House for less than a year; Gordon Brown was still in Downing Street; the global economy was limping back from the financial crisis; the US shale revolution's impact hadn't been felt; OPEC had held its latest minister's meeting in Luanda, Angola instead of its secretariat in Vienna, Austria; and Brent and WTI futures closed at $76.31 and $78.05 per barrel respectively, with a premium in the latter's favour! That's a 10-year decline of $9.84 (-12.9%) for Brent and $17.5 (-22.42%) for WTI versus this European morning's prices in Asia.  

Back then, all this blog had was a handful of readers comprising of mutual acquaintances in the trading community who had been providing tips and invaluable feedback since 2007, when yours truly was working on concepts, and a trail site/domain. The subsequent blogging journey began on Christmas eve of 2009 when the Oilholic registered the www.oilholicssynonymous.com domain, and it has been quite a ride, and more, ever since. 

The blog underwent a complete template overhaul in 2011 as the readership started gaining traction. Well past its millionth pageview, it currently averages 12,000 reads a month. 

Well above average readership points are often brought about by posts on energy sector developments and events such as IPWeek, CERAWeek, OPEC and ADIPEC, where this blogger often takes speaking engagements at, resulting in monthly pageviews jumping above 100,000 reads a month. 

As in previous years, bulk of the readers who browse and read this blog in 2019 have come from the US, UK, Norway, Germany and China in that order, with American and British readers leading the pack by some distance. 

Many have logged in from some 127 countries week in, week out. So a massive thank you to all of you because without your readership, feedback and support this blog wouldn't be here. Alongside regular readers who find this blog via established routes, analytics also reveal the impact of Google, where many of you find your way to the Oilholic alongside LinkedIn, Twitter and Forbes.

What this blog has been about over the last 10 years is what it will be about in the future, carrying the Oilholic's analysis, thoughts, rants, musings and social media flags, about past events, developments and emerging scenarios in the sector, and the comments of fellow market experts one is able to interact with. 

It'll also continue to complement the Oilholic's analysis and media career, speaking circuit engagements, serve as a published clippings portfolio hub, broadcast commentary, work undertaken over the last 20 years (and counting), some favourite photographs and a selection of book reviews.

As the years go by, here's hoping this blog is (and will be) as much fun for those reading it as it is for the one writing it. So keep reading, keep it 'crude' and once again thank you for all your support.

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo: Screenshot of Oilholics Synonymous Report's homepage in 2010 © Gaurav Sharma.

Enhanced gas recovery & the good folks at DGOC

The Oilholic just got back from a quick turnaround research trip to the US Appalachian Basin covering the hydrocarbon rich prospection patch between Morgantown, West Virginia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

The latter being that promised American departure point yours truly told you about in 2016, where even the airport authority is privy to the proceeds natural gas! 

Having spent the last six months being convinced by academics and policy wonks that the Appalachian Basin is in trouble given oversupply, pipeline capacity issues, and the prospect of sub-$2/MMBtu Henry Hub prices, it was a breath of fresh air listening to the good folks at Diversified Gas and Oil Plc (LON:DGOC).

The company is currently listed on AIM, has formally announced its intention to move to London's main market and says that business is good. DGOC's simple, effective modus operandi is going after mature long life conventional wells in the region, often neglected by exploration and production firms obsessed with unconventional shale exploration.

The company's CEO Rusty Hutson (fifth from left), COO Brad Gray (second from left) and their team on the ground in Pennsylvania took this blogger around their patch explaining their methods, which include deploying a surprisingly low amount of contractors on site, entrusting employees to chart cost effective, efficient and resource maximising pathways, and of course some prudent management.

Hutson and Gray are also pretty acquisitive almost, always fishing around for primarily natural gas assets they can buy, often at low cost, to turn them around. To give the readers a flavour, recent sellers to DGOC have included the likes of EQT, CNX and Anadarko.

By drilling few wells, and mainly operating and maximising already onstream wells totalling over 60,000, team DGOC believe they can make a decent margin even at $2/MMbtu Henry Hub prices with smart strategic hedging, including hedges stretching 10 years out in the case of some instruments they have deployed.

If enhanced hydrocarbon recovery will bring about a new output wave stateside as many market commentators think, DGOC's contribution is over 92,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to that pool and rising.

You can expect more of the same, and more, Hutson assures the Oilholic. More observations from the trip to follow for publishing outlets but that's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

Addendum I - 27.09.19: Thoughts via Rigzone - 'Smart' Appalachian Operators Can Handle Sub $2 Natural Gas. Click here.

Addendum II - 07.10.19: Thoughts via Forbes - Enhanced Recovery Maverick: Meet West Virginia Oilman Taking Resource Maximization To New Heights. Click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo I: Morgantown, West Verginia, US from the air. © Gaurav Sharma, September 2019. Photo II & III: Gaurav Sharma onsite with DGOC personnel in Pennsylvania, US © Ben Romney, September 2019. 

Various media missives on energy market

The last fortnight has just zipped by with so much going on in the energy market that the Oilholic did not get time to pen his thoughts here (apologies!). However, here are a plethora of thoughts for various publishing outfits on various energy related subjects. 

First off, despite all the geopolitical pressures, worries of an escalating trade war continues to be the dominant bearish sentiment in the market and could turn mildly bullish if resolved. So here are some thoughts on Forbes in defence of those with bearish oil price forecasts who some say are being complacent, alongside a note on the prospects of US Midstream stocks. 

And a take on why Formula E versus Formula 1 motorsports offer a microcosm of the tussle for human mobility. Away from Forbes here is yours truly's article on the Big Data tsunami that is heading the oil and gas industry's way via Rigzone.

Finally, here's a take on the cybersecurity challenge the energy industry faces on Energy Post (behind paywall). More on this mad, mad crude market soon. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019.

A calmer view on oil market volatility

The Oilholic is just about to end his latest visit to Oslo, Norway following a two-day energy technology event but decided to stop en route to the airport to admire the calm waterfront off the Fornebu business district. Here's a view of the Fornebukta. Its serenity is as far removed from the ongoing kerfuffle in oil market as can be.

Both Brent and WTI ended the month of May some 11% lower, with the market just not buying the geopolitical risk angle following attacks on tankers off the Port Of Fujairah. 

Now it seems two more tankers have been attacked in the region, but apart from a brief uptick, the bears are still in control. The WTI is well below $60 per barrel, and Brent is struggling to hold the floor at $60. That's because regardless of the market discourse over geopolitical risks in the Middle East and US-Iran tensions; what's actually weighing on the market is the trade tension between US and China. 

Were that to be resolved, it would in the Oilholic's opinion be a much bigger bullish factor than skirmishes in the Middle East. Another factor is what is OPEC going to, or rather isn't going to, do next? Its ministers' meeting for April was postponed to June 25-26, and now it seems that going to postponed again to July. All of that at a time when the market remains cognisant of the fact that the cartel does not have an exit strategy for the cuts drive. 

Here is this blogger's latest take on the subject for Rigzone published overnight. OPEC is doing a balancing act of compromising its market share in a bid to support the price; but its a temporary stance that can be prolonged, but one that cannot become a default position give US production is tipped to rise over the short-term.

Additionally, should the Russians call off participation in the ongoing OPEC and non-OPEC cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd); the desired effect of any standalone cuts made by the cartel of the sort it made in the past, would not be quite the same given the ongoing cooperation in itself is extraordinary in nature, and has held firm since December 2016, for the market to price it in as such. 

Many fellow analysts here in Oslo share the same viewpoint. OPEC's production came in at a record low of 30.9 million bpd in May, according to the latest S&P Global Platts survey. That's the lowest level since February 2015, before Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Congo joined, and when Qatar was still a member.

How the cartel reasserts its credibility is anyone's guess but all things considered, it remains difficult to see crude oil benchmarks escape the $50 to $70 price bracket anytime soon. That's all from Oslo folks! But before this blogger take your leave here's another view of the scenic, albeit rain-soaked Oslofjord (above right). It was a pleasure visiting Norway again, reconnecting with old friends and contacts and making yet newer ones. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo 1: Fornebukta, Fornebu, Norway. Photo 2: Oslofjord, Oslo Norway © Gaurav Sharma June, 2019.

That over 10% slump in oil price

As the crazy month of May comes to a close, commentators using the supply constriction and geopolitical risk premium pretexts to big up prices have been left scratching their heads. Using Middle Eastern tension and murmurs of OPEC rolling over production cuts as the backdrop for predicting $80+ Brent prices didn't get anywhere fast. 

Instead prices went into reverse as the US-China trade spat, Brexit, Chinese and German slowdown fears weighed on demand sentiment. Here is yours truly's take via Forbes:

Trump’s trade war rhetoric is a factor in oil demand, but other concerns over the global economy are rightfully cancelling supply constriction arguments https://t.co/7zBKGmM5Fn pic.twitter.com/GWtEMAPROW

— Forbes (@Forbes) May 31, 2019

For what it is worth, at the time of writing this blog post both oil benchmarks are posting a May decline of +10% in what can only be described as a crude market rout. 

Away from the oil price, it seems rating agency Moody's has withdrawn all the ratings of Venezuela's beleaguered oil firm PDVSA including the senior unsecured and senior secured ratings due to "insufficient information." At the time of withdrawal, the ratings were 'C' and the outlook was 'stable'.

With Venezuela in free-fall and its oil production well below 1 million barrels per day (at 768,000 bpd in April) - not much remains to be said. In any case, the US will be importing less and less crude from Latin America not what happens in Caracas, given uptick in its shale-driven output. 

Away from 'crude' matters, the Oilholic also touched on LNG markets. Here is yours truly's take for Forbes on how the US-China trade spat will serve to dampen offtake for US LNG Projects; and here is a missive for Rigzone on the disconnect between US President Donald Trump's rhetoric on American LNG exports to the Baltics versus the ground reality. 

That's all for the moment for mad May folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019. 

New avenues for 'crude' analysis

The Oilholic has had a hectic start to 2019 for sure, even though the crude market has behaved pretty predictably in January, having recovered ground it lost towards the end of 2019.

That's because yours truly has started providing insight on a regular basis to three more avenues alongside Forbes. These include The Energy Post and Energy Post Weekly, industry recruitment and insight portal Rigzone, and London-based financial start-up ReachX.

Here are a few snippets:

• Energy Post: Commentary on energy sector investment in blockchain - January 23, 2019 (Behind Paywall / Subscribers' login)
• Rigzone: Commentary on direction of the oil price in 2019 - January 28, 2019
• ReachX: Podcast with Paul Welch, CEO of North Africa focussed independent upstart SDX Energy - January 22, 2019

Plenty more to follow. But that's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it crude!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019.