Kerfuffle over fracking in the UK

Earlier this week the Oilholic noted plenty of predictable commotion as the UK finally got fracking following years of legal limbo. On Monday (October 15), Cuadrilla confirmed it had started fracking at its natural gas prospection site in Little Plumpton, Lancashire, after the failure of a legal challenge the previous week.

Here's the Oilholic's take on the development via Forbes, but amid the pro and anti-fracking hot air, shouty crackers and genteel debaters, statements and counter-statements, an interesting report from the pro-shale 'Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)' found its way into this blogger's mailbox.

Having done a review of UK media coverage about fracking, it concludes that major outlets have been "hyping claims of environmentalists while playing down the benefits" of shale gas. GWPF's Andrew Montford is particularly scathing about the output of the Guardian and the BBC. 

"They tend to recount wild stories and then move on without correcting the record. The public should therefore be very cautious about what they read on the subject in the next few weeks, as shale gas fracking begins in the UK."

Here is Montford's review (PDF download); you be the judge of it! That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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Two Forbes posts on very different matters

Dear readers, it has been an exceptionally busy month of April courtesy travel, speaking engagements and IBTimes UK affairs that have kept the Oilholic severely occupied to the near blasphemous point of ignoring this blog! Sincere apologies! However, one did pen thoughts down on two key matters via regular posts on Forbes. 

Earlier this month, petrochemical giant Ineos bought the UK's North Sea Forties pipeline system from BP. Obviously, its huge for Ineos which would have control of 40% of UK's oil and gas output, but the development is also indicative of a strategic shift of oil majors away from mature prospects to emerging ones. (Read more here). 

The second key matter is US President Donald Trump’s recent airstrikes on Syria, Afghanistan and his dispatching of an aircraft carrier group to the Korean Peninsula to square up to a belligerent North Korea and in defense of the South. As safe-haven asset prices soared, Brent has also marched back up to $55 and WTI back above $50. Go long if you want to, but the rally won't last - there's still too much oil in the system. (Read more here). 

That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2017.

On the Firth of Forth with an ethane tanker

As a mad month of travelling nears its end, the Oilholic was up earlier today in the small hours of the morning sailing on the Firth of Forth, Scotland, observing Panamax tankers load up Forties crude from the North Sea at the Hound Point Terminal at sunrise (see left). 

If you are lucky enough to catch the morning din with the weather holding up, it is quite a sight. However, the main purpose of being anchored in the middle of the Firth of Forth so early was not to see Panamax tankers fill-up, but rather to take a peek at the Ineos Insight; a ship carrying ethane sourced from the Marcellus shale stateside to British waters. Lo and behold she surfaced soon enough too (see below right).

This first consignment of US shale gas to the UK has given yours truly plenty of talking points for better parts of a fortnight. So here’s a take on its geopolitical significance for IBTimes UK, and a chat with Ineos director Tom Pickering. And well here is a spot report of the day’s event too, bagpipes, boat rides, canapes and all. 

However, if the back story is your thing, here it is as described for Forbes, and a more holistic account on this blog. 

With plenty of column inches dedicated to the event by yours truly to it, there’s little more to be done other than to pass on the links above to you and enjoy a view of oil and gas industry history in the making. That’s all from Scotland folks! It’s on to Edinburgh and then back to London. Keep reading, keep it crude!

Update 29/10/16: Furthermore, since this historic shale consignment arrived in Scotland, which has a moratorium on shale exploration, here is the Oilholic's IBTimes UK column touching on the hypocrisy of the Scottish Government’s stance on shale.

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© Gaurav Sharma 2016. Photo 1: Sunrise at Hound Point Terminal, Firth of Forth, Scotland, UK. Photo 2: Ineos Insight arrives in British Waters © Gaurav Sharma, September 2016 

Shale gale blows from Appalachian fields to Grangemouth refinery

The Oilholic has bid farewell to the Big Apple, and finds himself visiting a shale gas drilling site in Switzerland Township, Eastern Ohio, via Pittsburgh, where there is something rather unique going on from a European perspective. 

It seems Ineos, the very Alpine and European Switzerland-headquartered petrochemicals firm, and Consol Energy (which owns several Marcellus hale drilling sites), have come together to dispatch shale gas from the US of A to the old continent.

Given serial British industrialist and founder of Ineos Jim Ratcliffe is involved in the enterprise – there are no half measures.

The company has commissioned eight-dragon class ships, with an investment of $2bn (£1.54bn) towards shipping more than 800,000 tonnes a year of ethane from Pennsylvania to Grangemouth (UK) and Rafnes (Norway). 

Each of the ships is capable of carrying over 27,500 cubic meters of gas sourced from the Marcellus shale. Norway has already received its first consignment with the UK tipped to receive its first one on September 27th. 

Ratcliffe’s petrochemicals business needs steady, reliable feedstock and exporters such as Consol, need buyers offering better proceeds than currently on offer stateside. So natural gas from Ohio and Pennsylvania is finding its way via a physical pipeline to Marcus Hook Terminal in Philadelphia, from where it gets dispatched via a virtual pipeline of these eight ships constantly moving the gas to Europe, providing Ineos with gas for the foreseeable future.

While implications for Europe are huge, what it means for US exporters is no less significant. Take Consol itself, a company moving away from its coal mining heritage dating back over 150 years, to natural gas exploration and production. 

It has one of the largest acreage in the Appalachian, and is slowly divesting coal assets, delving deeper into gas exploration. In more ways than one, Pennsylvania itself appears to be going through an economic renaissance along with much of the Rustbelt courtesy of shale gas exploration. 

Moving on from Eastern Ohio, and before hopping on the flight back home, the good folks at Consol took also yours truly to an onstream shale gas extraction facility actually on Pittsburgh airport land (see above right). Process refinements, extraction techniques and automation needed to drill such wells is also moving up in leaps and bounds. Compared to the Oilholic’s last visit to a shale gas extraction facility in 2013, drilling times have halved.

Automation also enables drilling to continue 24 hours a day, seven days a week with fewer personnel. Of course, the basics remain the same – i.e. drillers often drill vertically down 8,000 to 10,000 feet before horizontal drilling commences, followed by fracking.

As for the controversy that almost inevitably accompanies fracking, Tim Dugan, chief operating officer of Consol, says a well planned and thought out fracking process “does not cause earthquakes” with bulk of what's in the fracking fluid being water and rest of the materials fully revealed.

Dugan also says seismic studies have improved in step with the shale gas industry, helping drillers avoid faultlines that could potentially cause tremors.

Ineos is hoping to relay Dugan’s message, and the economic transformation shale has brought to the rustbelt, back to the UK.

Not only is Ineos instrumental in exporting US shale gas, it also holds 30 shale exploration licences in UK that it hopes will one day revive the British oil and gas industry. There's much promise, but its early days yet. That’s all from the USA for the moment folks, its been a memorable visit to another shale extraction site; one's first outside of Texas.

However, just before one takes your leave, a special shout out to Mike Fritz of Consol Energy, who accompanied this blogger over two days with various stopovers from Eastern Ohio to Pennsylvania, enduring traffic jams, pesky questions, site visits and information requests – all of which were met with a friendly smile. Keep reading, keep it crude! Next stop London Heathrow.

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© Gaurav Sharma 2016. Photo 1: Consol Energy's shale gas drilling site in Switzerland Township, Ohio, USA. Photo 2: Consol Energy's shale pad on Pittsburgh Airport Land, Pennsylvania. Photo 3: The Oilholic at a Shale drilling site, Ohio, USA © Mark Simpson, September 2016

Oil bust of 2015 worse than you thought

While much of Wall Street appears to be at peace with the ‘lower for longer’ oil price slant, new research suggests the industry slump of 2015 was not as bad as we thought stateside; it was actually much worse! 

According to ratings agency Moody's, the oil bust that began in 2015 may turn out to be on par with the telecoms industry collapse of the early 2000s, and worse still it continues to fester. 

Both in terms of the number of recorded bankruptcies, as well as the recovery rates for creditors – 2015 was annus horribilis, with 2016 showing signs of making it look tame.

David Keisman, Senior Vice President at Moody's, says the agency recorded 17 oil & gas bankruptcies in 2015, with 15 coming from the Exploration & Production (E&P) sector, one from oilfield services, and one from drilling. Furthermore, Moody's E&P bankruptcies have accelerated in 2016, with the year-till-date figure about double that for all of 2015.

"The jump in oil and gas defaults that was driven by slumping commodity prices, was primarily responsible for the increase in the overall US default rate in 2015 and continues to fuel it in 2016. When all the data is in, including 2016 bankruptcies, it may very well turn out that this oil & gas industry crisis has created a segment-wide bust of historic proportions," Keisman adds.

That’s because during the telecoms collapse, Moody's recorded 43 company bankruptcies in the three-year period between 2001 and 2003.

Revealing further data, the agency said firm-wide recovery rates for E&P bankruptcies from 2015 averaged only 21%, significantly lower than the historical average of 58.6% for all E&P bankruptcies filed prior to 2015, and the overall historical average of 50.8% for all types of corporates that filed for bankruptcy protection between 1987-2015.

At the instrument level, reserve based loans on average recovered 81%, significantly lower than the 98% recovered in prior energy E&P bankruptcies from 1987-2014. Similarly, other bank debt instruments also on average recovered much less than in previous bankruptcies. For their part, high yield bonds recovered a dismal 6%, compared to a recorded rate in the low 30% in previous E&P bankruptcies.

Finally, Moody’s also notes that “distressed exchanges did little to stave off bankruptcies. More than half of the E&P companies that completed distressed exchanges ended up filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection within a year.”

The agency's sobering take follows those of its ratings industry rivals, with Fitch noting that all European oil majors are likely to generate large negative free cash flows for the full-year 2016, and S&P observing that energy and natural resources segment has the highest concentration of global corporate defaults by sector accounting for 65 issuers, or 56%, of the 117 defaults worldwide in the year to August-end. 

Away from industry doom and gloom, and just before yours truly bids goodbye to the Big Apple, one had the invitation to attend the ICIS Kavaler Award Gala reception sponsored by the Chemists Club at the City’s Metropolitan Club. 

This year’s winner was British serial Industrialist Jim Ratcliffe, the founder of chemicals firm Ineos. According to ICIS, Ratcliffe is the first foreign winner of the award, decided by his peers in the chemicals business. 

Pre-gala, the Oilholic had a drink to that; albeit one which was shaken not stirred, quite like much of the oil & gas industry is at the moment. That’s all from New York folks, with Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania calling next! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2016. Photo 1: Wall Street Signage, New York, USA. Photo 2: The Oilholic in The Big Apple © Gaurav Sharma, September 2016