Jargon free volume on upstream fiscal design

Takings from upstream oil and gas projects, whether they are small scale or big ticket ones, ultimately determine their profitability – the stuff that shareholders, venture sponsors and governments alike have a keen interest in.

It is why oil and gas companies, both state or privately held, deploy an army of petroleum economists to offer conjecture or calculated projections on what the final fiscal share of such ventures might be.

In this complex arena, both budding petroleum economists and established ones could do with all the help they can get. Industry veterans Ken Kasriel and David Wood’s book Upstream Petroleum: Fiscal and Valuation Modeling in Excel (published by Wiley Finance) goes a long way towards doing just that, and quite comprehensively too.

In a volume of 370 pages, with eight detailed chapters split into sequential sub-sections, the authors offer one of the most detailed subjective discussions and guidance on fiscal modeling that is available on the wider market at the moment in the Oilholic's opinion.

The treatment of fiscal systems, understanding and ultimately tackling the complexities involved is solid, predicated on their own views and experience of understanding the tangible value of upstream projects before, during and when they ultimately come onstream, and what the takings would be.

Kasriel and Wood have also included five appendices and a CD-ROM (in the hardcover version) to take the educational experience further, and accompanying the main text of the title are over 400 pages of supplementary PDF files and some 120-plus Excel files, with an introduction to risk modeling.

What is particularly impressive is the authors’ painstaking effort in cutting through industry jargon, putting across their pointers in plain English for both entry-level professionals and experienced practitioners. Furthermore, the sequential format of the book makes it real easy for the latter lot to jump in to a section for quick reference or for a subject specific refresher. 

Generic treatment of taxation, royalties, bonuses, depreciation, profit sharing mechanics, incentives, ringfencing, and much more, including decommissioning finance, are all there and should withstand the passage of time as both authors have called their combined 48 years of experience in the industry into play, to conjure up a reasonably timeless discussion on various issues. 

Above everything else, Kasriel and Wood’s conversational style makes this book a very purposeful, handy guide on a subject that is vast. The Oilholic is happy to recommend it to fellow analysts, (aspiring, new and established) petroleum economists, policymakers, industry professionals, corporate sponsors and oil and gas project finance executives.

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© Gaurav Sharma 2015. © Photo: Front Cover – Upstream Petroleum: Fiscal and Valuation Modeling in  Excel © Wiley Publishers, March, 2015.

Speaking @ OPEC & WPC plus Dec's trading lows

It’s been a hectic few weeks attending the OPEC conference in Vienna and the 20th World Petroleum Congress in Doha, but the Oilholic is now happily back in London town for a calm Christmas. In fact, a more than passive interest in the festive period’s crude trading lows is all what you will get for the next fortnight unless there is a geopolitical mishap. However, before we discuss crude pricing, this humble blogger had the wonderful experience of doing a commentary hit for an OPEC broadcast and moderating a Baker & McKenzie seminar at the WPC.

Starting with OPEC, it was a pleasure ditching pricing and quotas for once in Vienna and discussing the infrastructure investment plans of its 12 member nations in OPEC webcast on December 14th. The cartel has announced US$300 billion of upstream infrastructure investment between 2011 and 2015.

The market is right in believing that Kuwait and Qatar would lead the new build and give project financiers considerable joy. However, intel gathered at the WPC suggests the Algerians could be the surprise package. (To watch the video click here and scroll down to the seventh video on the 160th OPEC conference menu)

This ties-in nicely to the Baker & McKenzie seminar at the WPC on December 7th where the main subject under the microscope was investment opportunities for NOCs.

Six legal professionals attached to Baker's myriad global practices, including familiar names from their UK office, offered the audience insight on just about everything from sources of funding to a reconciliation of different drivers for NOCs and IOCs in partnerships.

Once the panel discussion was over, the Baker partners were kind enough to allow the Oilholic to open the floor for some lively questioning from the audience. While the Oilholic did most of the probing and Baker professionals did most of the answering, the true credit for putting the seminar and its research together goes to Baker’s Emily Colatino and Lizzy Lozano who also clicked photos of the proceedings.

Now from crude sound-bites to crude market chatter post-OPEC, as the end of last week saw a major sell off. Despite the price of crude oil staging a minor recovery in Monday’s intraday trading; both benchmarks were down by over 4 per cent on a week over week, five-day cycle basis on Tuesday. Since the festive period is upon us, trading volumes for the forward month futures contracts will be at the usual seasonal low over the Christmas holidays. Furthermore, the OPEC meeting in Vienna failed to provide any meaningful upward impetus to the crude price level, which like all traded commodities is witnessing a bearish trend courtesy the Eurozone crisis.

Sucden Financial Research analyst Myrto Sokou notes that investors remained very cautious towards the end of last week and were prompted towards some profit taking to lock in recent gains as WTI crude was sliding down toward US$92 per barrel level.

“After market close on Friday, Moody’s downgraded Belgium by two notches to Aa3, as liabilities associated with the Dexia bailout and increased Eurozone risks were cited as key factors. In addition, market rumours on Friday of a France downgrade by S&P were not followed up, though the agency did have server problems during the day. Suspicion is now that they will wait until the New Year to conclude review on Eurozone’s second largest economy,” Sokou said in a note to clients.

Additionally, crude prices are likely to trade sideways with potential for some correction higher, supported by a rebound in the global equity markets. “However, should the US dollar strengthen further we expect some pressure in the oil market that looks fairly vulnerable at the moment,” Sokou concludes.

Away from pricing projections, the Reuters news agency reports that Libya has awarded crude oil supply contracts in 2012 to Glencore, Gunvor, Trafigura and Vitol. Of these Vitol helped in selling rebel-held crude during the civil war as the Oilholic noted in June.

On to corporate matters and Fitch Ratings has upgraded three Indonesian oil & gas utilities PT Pertamina (Persero) (Pertamina), PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) (PLN) and PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGN) to 'BBB-' following the upgrade to Indonesia's Long-Term Foreign- and-Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The outlooks on all three entities are Stable, agency said in a note on December 15th.

Meanwhile, a Petrobras communiqué suggests that this December, the combined daily output of the Brazilian major and its partners exceeded 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/day) in the promising Santos Basin. The company said that on December 6, two days after operations began at well RJS-686, which is connected to platform FPSO Cidade de Angra dos Reis (the Lula Pilot Project), the total output operated by Petrobras at the Santos Basin reached 205,700 boe/day.

This includes 144,100 barrels of oil and condensate, in addition to 9.8 million cubic meters of natural gas (equivalent to an output of 61,600 boe), of which 8.5 million cubic meters were delivered to the Monteiro Lobato Gas Treatment Unit (UTGCA), in Caraguatatuba, and 1.3 million cubic meters to the Presidente Bernardes Refinery (RPBC) Natural Gas Unit, in Cubatão, both in the state of São Paulo.

Finally, ratings agency Moody's notes a potential sizable lawsuit against Chevron Corporation in Brazil could have a negative impact on the company, but it is too early to judge the full extent of any future liability arising from the lawsuit.

Recent news reports indicate that a federal prosecutor in the state of Rio de Janeiro is seeking BRL20 billion (US$10.78 billion) in damages from Chevron and Transocean Ltd. for the offshore oil leak last month. The Oilholic thinks Transocean’s position is more troublesome given it’s a party to the legal fallout from the Macondo incident.

That’s all for the moment folks – a crude year-ender to follow in early January! In the interim, have a Happy Christmas! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Photo 1: Gaurav Sharma on OPEC's 160th meeting live webcast from Vienna, Austria on Dec 14, 2011 © OPEC Secretariat. Photo 2 & 3: The Oilholic at Baker & McKenzie seminar on investment opportunities for NOCs at the 20th World Petroleum Congress in Doha, Qatar on Dec 7, 2011 © Lizzy Lozano, Baker & McKenzie.

Talking to Deloitte, Kentz and Baker & McKenzie

As Day three ends, the Oilholic had the pleasure of great chats with friends at Deloitte, Kentz Engineers & Constructors and Baker & McKenzie here at the 20th WPC. Starting with the latter first – B&M – who have taken the initiative to discuss NOCs and IOCs from a different angle.

While the age old debate about NOCs versus IOCs is history, new opportunities for synergies and investment are emerging between the two and the Chicago-headquartered law firm wants to discuss these over a seminar here at the Congress. Let’s face it, NOCs overtook IOCs ages ago and most IOCs now seek partnerships with NOCs. Furthermore, since now would be a good time for asset acquisition; it is worth talking about the opportunities that exist for NOCs.

The Oilholic has been kindly invited by B&M to moderate the seminar wearing his Infrastructure Journal’s writer as well as this humble blog author’s hat. In sunny Qatar – its two hats better than one. Details on how it all went to follow when the seminar is over.

Since, the hot weather makes one thirsty, a parched Oilholic also had the pleasure of a few dwinkys with friends at Kentz. A chance and pleasant meeting with CEO Dr. Hugh O'Donnell courtesy Reuters’ very own resident oilholic Tom Bergin, author of the splendid book Spills & Spin, was deeply appreciated.

Dr. O'Donnell sees huge regional opportunities here in the Middle East and feels Asia Pacific and Australia would be good bet for investment in the oil & gas sector in this macroclimate for his firm. Sorry the conversation was off record at a social setting so it would not be appropriate to reveal more.

Last but certainly not the least, met several friends (new and old) from Deloitte, including Carl D. Hughes, the advisory firm’s global head of energy and resources. Like Dr. O’Donnell, Hughes sees potential in looking East. The Oilholic and Deloitte colleagues were in agreement about the challenges faced by the refining sector in Western jurisdictions and why new build in India is necessitated by demand.

Shale invariably had to creep in to the discussion – who would have thought that at the 20th Congress the US delegation would be heading here as the world’s leading producer of gas? By the way, got up close to an F1 McLaren car at ExxonMobil's stand! Pretty cool methinks! (See photo above left & click to enlarge). More later; keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Photo: 20th World Petroleum Congress exhibition floor & entrance © Gaurav Sharma 2011.

IOC’s bonds, Dragon's shares & Shell’s spill

The Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) issued its much talked about bonds to the tune of US$500 million last week, with a 5.625% rate due in 2021 to fund ongoing and future domestic projects. Banking on the premise of burgeoning demand among other metrics, ratings agency Moody’s gave it a Baa3 rating with a stable outlook.

Through its 10 refineries with a combined capacity of 1.2 million barrels a day, IOC is India’s largest downstream company with a near 40% market share. While it is a publicly listed company, the Indian government owns 78.92% of it. From an Indian majority state-owned behemoth to a LSE-listed upstream company 51% owned by the government of the Emirate of Dubai – Dragon Oil – which was brought to the Oilholic’s attention recently.

Dragon’s share price is nowhere near its own 52-week high of 609p, but past few trading sessions following its H1 interim results have seen its price rise nearly 4% or 20p on average to about 490p in a decidedly bearish environment. (For the record, it is not the biggest LSE-listed riser of the day – that accolade goes to Heritage Oil but that’s a story for another day).

Question is do you buy it? Examining past performance seems to suggest so and Dragon has recorded a 25% average (gross) production growth for H1 2011. Furthermore, the upstream co has set itself a rather ambitious production growth target of 20% on an annualised basis for the year.

For 2011-2013, the company seeks to maintain target of average annual production growth in the range of 10% to 15%. Away from production projections and by force of habit the Oilholic always looks at the EPS which is up 125% year over year for the first half of this year. Additionally, it remains a takeover target for the majority owners (among others).

The Dragon’s central plank or prized asset is prospection in the Cheleken, an offshore Turkmen jurisdictional area in the eastern section of the Caspian Sea. This can be further narrowed down to an operational focus on the re-development of two oil-producing fields - Dzheitune (Lam) and Dzhygalybeg (Zhdanov).

On the ground Dragon looks promising; on paper it looks a shade one-dimensional. From an investor’s standpoint, that would make its shares a reasonable medium term investment. The Oilholic is always partial to the idea of going long; hence Dragon’s shares are appealing within reason.

Moving on to an offshore story of a grave kind, Royal Dutch Shell confirmed that a leak in a flow line leading to the Gannet Alpha oil platform, east of Aberdeen, Scotland, found on Wednesday is “under control with leakage considerably reduced.” According to local sources, a Remote-Operated Vehicle (ROV) has been deployed for inspection checks and to monitor the subsea leak.

Admittedly not much is coming out in terms of information, except for Shell’s claims that the oil would disperse naturally and not reach the UK coastline. The Oilholic finds the lack of information to be frustrating and sincerely hopes Shell is not doing a BP style “underestimation”. At this point there is no reason to believe that is the case.

Finally, both WTI and Brent are in the green up 1.83% and 1.31% in intraday at 15:15GMT. The bears are still in Crude town, but quite possibly taking a breather after last week’s mauling, or as Commerzbank analysts note, “Even if the short term trough appears to be reached, weak physical demand should keep oil prices in check.”

Update 16:45 GMT: Latest estimates from Shell’s press office suggest 216 tonnes or 1,300 barrels had been spilled.

Update 10:30 GMT, Aug 16: Shell says additional leakage has been discovered in the flow line beneath Gannet Alpha platform

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Photo: Dzheitune Lam Platform B © Dragon Oil Plc.

Moody’s Says Global Integrated Oil Industry Stable

A report published on Wednesday by Moody’s notes that the global integrated oil and gas industry outlook remains stable and the sector is likely to continue seeing a moderate recovery over the next 12-18 months. However, it adds that the recovery could be more subdued for international oil companies (IOCs).

Oil prices have generally averaged over US$75+ per barrel, and Moody’s has joined ranks with the wider market in noting that the oil sector is well past the bottom of the cycle.

Thomas Coleman, a Senior Vice President at Moody's, says, "The integrated oil companies on the whole enjoy a strong and competitive financial position today; with oil prices trading in a moderate level of about US$75 a barrel as the world's leading economies continue to emerge from the serious downturn of 2008-2009."

Overall, the report notes that the demand for crude oil will remain strong outside the OECD, as – well no prizes for guessing – China and other booming economies, most notably India, steadily increase consumption.

The report also notes that IOCs' earnings and cash flow are improving and could rise by almost 20% over the next 12-18 months - thanks to the H1 2010 revival in crude prices - but these companies remain exposed to fairly weak conditions in the refining sector, which is set to take on even more capacity in 2010 and in coming years.

In addition, high inventories worldwide and recent commodity price volatility amid deepening concerns over Eurozone debt issues further illustrate the risks to the sector, according to Moody's. On the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the ratings agency noted that the "costs of drilling in the Gulf will escalate dramatically when the US government's ongoing moratorium ends, though deepwater drilling is unlikely to come to permanent halt."

© Gaurav Sharma 2010. Photo courtesy © Shell