Gastech Days III & IV: The natural gas-AI nexus & more

As Gastech 2025 entered Days III and IV, and the finish line approached, conversations and dialogues at the event slightly turned from how natural gas would power an AI driven future to how AI itself would serve as an efficiency and decarbonisation enabler for the energy sector, and by extension to hard-to-abate heavy industry segments. 

To this effect, for the past three years, the event's AI-Energy, Climatetech and Hydrogen content streams have been steadily growing alongside signature plenaries. 

The Oilholic is happy to report that this trend continues. Additionally, this year also saw an even higher number of AI exhibitors. And leading global experts also showcased the impacts of new energy solutions such as methane abatement technologies and AI-driven optimisation, while addressing their impacts on rising energy demand and increased electricity consumption.

Yours truly got into the thick of the action via three panels on equally profound subjects on Day III. The first panel was on the topic of decarbonising heavy industrial sectors with e-fuels. 

Fellow panellists included Marco Àlvera, CEO & Co-Founder of TES, Alessandro Bernini, CEO of Maire, Dr Andrew Wood, CEO & Co-Founder of CATAGEN and Steve Esau, Chief Operating Officer of SEA-LNG. We discussed how with the right policies, collaborations and workforce support, sustainable fuels can contribute significantly to building a resilient, low carbon future. While there will be challenges along the way, there will also be opportunities. 

The second panel's topic was all about the unlocking the potential of low consumption AI technologies to accelerate energy transition goals. 

Panellists who joined yours truly for this panel included Uwa Airhiavbere, CCO - Worldwide Energy & Resources at Microsoft, Henri Domenach, Global Head - Energy Management of ENGIE, Parisa Bardouni, SVP & CTO of Aker Solutions, and Manoj Narender Madnani, MD - International at MARA.

Over an engaging and lively post-lunch exchange, we discussed how to activate low energy consumption, high impact AI technologies to deliver on the decarbonisation promise of generative AI.

And third and final panel that brought Day III's proceedings to a close for both the wider event, and this blogger, was on fostering full value chain collaboration to strengthen the market for scalable climate technologies. 

The panellists for this one included Guido D'Aloisio, CCO of Saipem, Yair Reem, Co-Founder & Partner at Extantia Capital, Charlie Sanchez, President - Infrastructure Advisory at Black & Veatch, and Dr. Ahmed El Sherbiny, VP - Energy Transition Fund at Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. 

This one dear readers was all about plotting a roadmap for fostering the very sort of collaboration that translates ambition into tangible market impact.

Moving on from the penultimate day to the final morning - on Day IV - it was revealed that this year's Gastech saw nearly 50,000 visitors and attendees from over 150 countries, as this international event grows bigger by the year.

Additionally, next year's host city would be Bangkok, Thailand, as the event rotates back from Europe to Asia, the continent with a burgeoning natural gas demand. Well that's a wrap from Gastech 2025. It's been a memorable, insightful and engaging week out here in Milan. To be continued in Bangkok in 2026. Arrivederci for now. More musings to follow. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. 

Gastech Days I & II: Powering a sustainable energy future

The first two days of Gastech 2025 - which officially runs from September 9 to 12 in Milan, Italy - have flown by with senior energy officials, CEOs and global industry experts offering their viewpoints on "powering a sustainable energy future."

The tag line of the event was amplified on Tuesday and Wednesday by two top US officials, dispatched by President Donald Trump, to spread the word that energy, especially LNG, exports from the States will be a stable and reliable for a power hungry world. 

That's as the proliferation of AI and hyperscale datacentres present the prospect of the world's power demand adding the entire consumption of Japan - the world's fourth-largest economy - by the end of the year to the world's current demand level. That'd be a total consumption load of 1,000 TWh, or more than double of what the planet consumed three years ago. 

Renewables simply cant meet that demand, and that's where LNG exports from the US come into view, according to Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior and Chris Wright, Energy Secretary. 

Both officials spent plenty of time at Gastech spread over the first two days, making a case for natural gas, and indicating that the US would double its natural gas production. 

Both officials also suggested that the US natural gas industry in general, and LNG in particular, were a force for good and a key enabler of the AI revolution. Here is the Oilholic's latest Forbes missive summing up the US pitch. 

Away from the US position, and prior to Washington's take dominating the goings-on at Gastech 2025, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy's Minister of Environment & Energy Security launched the event on the opening morning on behalf of the host country. 

“Despite the progress of the energy transition, gas will continue to be part of the EU's energy mix for decades to come. This is why the Italian government – while working to ensure that clean, safe and reliable technology such as new nuclear power meets future growing energy demand – is at the same time ensuring that gas supplies are boosted and regasification capacity is increased,” Fratin noted.

Other officials from the European Union, Nigeria, Hungary, and Türkiye, also discussed the crucial role of energy supply diversification, global cooperation, and resilient infrastructure in shaping an inclusive and balanced transformation. 

In particular, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó ruffled a few feathers by noting that his country does have alternatives to Russian oil and gas imports, but chooses to rely on Moscow for strategic, cost efficiency and infrastructural reasons, and not ideological ones. 

Senior industry CEO's also came calling. Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Italy's Eni, told Gastech: "We want to reduce emissions, but this is not achievable overnight. 

"You cannot do it by losing money or through subsidies and incentives. You have to make it affordable, because that is the economy - there is no other way."

Shell CEO Wael Sawan added: "Consistency of the regulatory environment is a priority, making sure that regulation incentivises one area but does not disincentivise others. 

"Everyone is rightly saying that we need to go to lower carbon products, yet we see maximum consumption of everything. We therefore need to broaden the perspective to say not what is good or bad, but to create the right incentives to allow the market to function."

And TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne warned the Americans were building too much LNG infrastructure. "We are facing many US projects. We will face oversupply for some years if all these projects come onstream."

Well into Day II the focus was firmly on the natural gas-AI nexus, as the Oilholic began his Gastech 2025 speaking engagements with a panel on achieving operational excellence through the application of AI. 

The panellists included Dr. Ahmed Mohamed Alebri, CEO of ADNOC Sour Gas, Olakunle Osobu, Deputy MD of NLNG, Michael Deighton, SVP - Operations at Kent, Fabricio Sousa, Global President - Worley Consulting & Technology Solutions at Worley and Andy Webster, Global Digital Senior Director at KBR. 

The engaging panel discussion offered actionable insights into leveraging AI for enhancing  system reliability, and maintain a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving energy landscape. That's as natural gas, hydrogen, and power networks face mounting pressure to enhance efficiency and resilience.

In step with the conference, Gastech's exhibition also opened its doors with a focus on supporting industry growth and collaboration, bringing in more than 1,000 global exhibitors and 20 country pavilions showcase a transformative range of products and services.

From hydrogen-ready equipment and next-generation LNG terminals to AI and machine learning platforms, the exhibition underscored Gastech’s role as the leading meeting place for executives, investors, and innovators to scale new solutions for efficiency and decarbonisation across the value chain.

Yours truly also took time out to discuss the Norwegian election results as they arrived on Day I of Gastech with Enda Brady on TRT World's Roundtable programme. 

Among various other macroeconomic facets, we talked about how Norway's hydrocarbon production is currently at its highest since 2011, by drilling and producing from the North Sea - the very same continental shelf it shares with the UK. 

Ironically while the UK is discouraging fresh North Sea production, Norway's centre-left government that's just been re-elected has no such hang ups. That includes exporting $30 billion-plus of natural gas to none other than their British counterparts, currently governed by a party also of a supposed centre-left political persuasion!

That's all for now folks. More musings to follow from Milan over the coming days. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Gastech 2025 which officially runs from September 9 to 12 in Milan, Italy. Photo II: Doug Burgum, US Secretary of the Interior, speaks at Gastech on September 9, 2025. Photo III: Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell, speaks at Gastech on September 9, 2025. © Gaurav Sharma, September 2025. Photo IV: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma moderates panel on achieving operational excellence through the application of AI on September 10, 2025. © KBR, September 2025. Photo V: Gastech 2025 exhibition floor on September 10, 2025. © Gaurav Sharma, September 2025. Photo VI: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma speaks on TRT World's Roundtable programme. © TRT World, September 2025.

Gastech 2025 sessions to be hosted by yours truly

The Oilholic is delighted to be back speaking and moderating at Gastech 2025 being held in Milan, Italy this year. One of the world's largest natural gas conference and exhibition of its kind is being held here from September 9 to 12. 

Yours truly will be holding four panel sessions at the event with distinguished industry leaders from energy sector and its entire value chain. 

Please do join if you can for some fantastic and insightful industry dialogues. Here are the details of the sessions:

Wednesday, September 10, 2025 @ 11:00 CET

Operational excellence through the application of artificial intelligence technologies

With:

• Dr. Ahmed Mohamed Alebri, CEO, ADNOC Sour Gas
• Olakunle Osobu, Deputy MD, NLNG
• Michael Deighton, SVP - Operations, Kent
• Fabricio Sousa, Global President - Worley Consulting & Technology Solutions, Worley
• Andy Webster, Global Digital Senior Director, KBR

(Click to enlarge)

Thursday, September 11, 2025 @ 09:45 CET

Decarbonising heavy industrial sectors with e-fuels

With:

• Marco Àlvera, CEO & Co-Founder, TES
• Alessandro Bernini, CEO, Maire
• Dr. Andrew Wood, CEO & Co-Founder, CATAGEN
• Steve Esau, Chief Operating Officer, SEA-LNG

(Click to enlarge)

Thursday, September 11, 2025 @ 14:00 CET

From investment to impact: Unlocking the potential of low consumption AI technologies to accelerate energy transition goals 

With:

• Uwa Airhiavbere, CCO - Worldwide Energy & Resources, Microsoft
• Henri Domenach, Global Head - Energy Management, ENGIE
• Parisa Bardouni, SVP & CTO, Aker Solutions
• Manoj Narender Madnani, MD - International, MARA

(Click to enlarge)

Thursday, September 11, 2025 @16:15 CET

Fostering full value chain collaboration to strengthen the market for scalable climate technologies

With:

• Guido D'Aloisio, CCO, Saipem 
• Yair Reem, Co-Founder & Partner, Extantia Capital 
• Charlie Sanchez, President - Infrastructure Advisory, Black & Veatch 
• Dr. Ahmed El Sherbiny, VP - Energy Transition Fund, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners

(Click to enlarge)

More musings to follow soon from Milan. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. 

A pre-departure Negroni & more ahead of Gastech 2025

The Oilholic is off to attend and speak at the natural gas industry's biggest jamboree - Gastech 2025 - for yet another year. This year's installment - the 53rd year in a row - is in Milan, Italy. Here's more on this blogger's panels.

So, what better way to contemplate the week that's about to follow other than over a delicious Negroni at the British Airways departure lounge dear readers. 

Now depending on the energy industry or ESG [or lack of] vernacular, call natural gas an 'interim' or 'bridging' or 'destination' or whatever you wish fuel, it's err.... here to stay. Let's face it, those hyperscale datacentres that you continue to hear about on the airwaves, the telly, and all else in between are not going to be powered by renewables in totality anytime soon. 

Because you and yours truly here need Grok, Gemini, Chat GPT and the wider global industrial and manufacturing complex need Industrial AI, and IIoT and more. So, they aren't going away, AI isn't going away, automation isn't going away, and well... natural gas fired power plants aren't going away either. 

That's why the U.S. of A, Australia and Qatar, and pretty much all of the GECF membership are pumping billions of gas dollars (yup,its not just petrodollars) into the business. And the great and good of the industry will be in Milan, including none other than US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. 

To quote the US Department of Energy, he will be there to "engage with energy ministers, nuclear and natural gas providers, members of the European Parliament and Commission, and other high-ranking officials to strengthen long-lasting partnerships and encourage countries to join the US as President [Donald] Trump builds a energy secure and prosperous future.

"This trip follows the announcement of President Trump’s Historic Trade Deal, which included an agreement from the EU to purchase $750 billion in US energy and invest $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028."

And, there you have it! 

But before one takes your leave, here's a bit more pessimism on that deal via yours truly's column in Forbes, and a word on natural gas and the Middle East via Energy connects. 

That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon from Milan. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. 

Meeting billionaire energy entrepreneur Femi Otedola

Energy and Finance Entrepreneur Femi Otedola (left) with Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma in London, UK

Late last month, the Oilholic had the pleasure of a very special meeting in London with an extraordinary energy and finance entrepreneur - none other than Nigerian billionaire and noted philanthropist Femi Otedola - who made his fortune with Forte Oil, a company he subsequently sold for a handsome profit. 

These days Otedola is the Chairman and majority owner of Geregu Power, a power generation company in Nigeria, and has sizeable stakes in Zenith Bank and FBN Holdings. 

The serial entrepreneur sat down for a meeting with yours truly late last month to discuss his life's journey, investment philosophy and his first book - Making it big: Lessons from a life in Business (currently trending on Amazon's Best Sellers list in business books category). 

Read the Oilholic's latest Forbes exclusive for more on Otedola's entrepreneurship, philanthropy, inspiring journey, and why he felt it was the right time to publish his first book. 

In the book, the self-made billionaire recounts that he always felt his true calling was in "business" and not academia, and that he started dreaming about it before he was even 10 years old. It also lays bare the ups and downs he faced, the challenges he met and the opportunities he took advantage of to get to where he is today. 

But what really stood was his passion for researching and conviction investing. "To this day, I follow the courage of my convictions and research when going for an asset acquisition." 

"I tend not to rely on an army of advisers. It may not be everyone's thing, but it is mine. I cannot say that there haven't been challenges in such an approach. Of course, there have been - but you learn from them to make your beliefs and investment approach stronger," he added. 

Overall, a most remarkable encounter with a great industry captain. That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma (right) with billionaire energy and finance entrepreneur Femi Otedola in London, UK © Office of Femi Otedola, August 2025.

A Brent crude price floor at $65 for now?

The global oil market saw crude futures jump to two-week highs on Thursday with the Brent front-month futures contract keeping up its defence of $65 per barrel. But for how long that is the question? 

What's just happened is that a dip in US inventories bumped up the prices a smidge, with little tangible movement on the Ukraine peace push by US President Donald Trump. 

But as The Oilholic told Reuters this morning, if the White House's efforts do result in a halt to hostilities in Ukraine, and Russia gradually coming back into the international fold, it will be bearish for the crude market. 

While for now the Brent price floor to watch out for remains at $65 per barrel, geopolitical infractions aside, there appears to be a mismatch in where the prices are at compared to current global OPEC and non-OPEC crude output levels. 

There will likely be a supply surplus as we enter the fourth quarter of the year and head to the first quarter of 2026, as yours truly said in a recent Al Jazeera interview.

Year-till-date, Brent remains down by around 10% and there's further ground to give. And well, that can only be price positive for global consumers. 

Away from crude prices, here are a couple of Forbes missives from this blogger published over the last few days on Elon Musk and Tesla's potential bid to shake-up the UK electricity market, and why New Zealand's lifting of its 2018 oil and gas drilling ban is unlikely to alleviate the industry pain and energy shortages it caused anytime soon. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on Al Jazeera English TV network. © Al Jazeera, August 2025. 

Speaking and moderating at Gastech 2025

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be speaking and moderating at Gastech 2025 in Milan, Italy, from September 9 to 12, one of the world's largest natural gas industry event. 

Explore this global event's critical conference agenda that is driving the energy transition through groundbreaking innovation, visionary leadership and action here.

Further details on the Oilholic's panels and sessions to follow here over the coming weeks.

Entering its 53rd year this September, Gastech will champion the role of natural gas in delivering affordable, reliable, low carbon energy to meet rising global energy demands. 

Over four days, Gastech will convene 50,000 attendees from over 150 countries, 1,000 exhibitors and 21,000 expert speakers, present company included, uniting the world’s leading energy professionals to power the sustainable energy ecosystem of tomorrow. 

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Milan. 

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Digital event banner courtesy of dmgevents, August 2025.

Seesawing crude price, fresh lows & more

Oil prices have been seesawing all of this week in the wake of another round of Trump Tariffs, an OPEC+ production hike, market uncertainty, and so it goes. You name it, the market bears have it with crude prices currently lurking around 8-week lows. 

Brent closed at its lowest since June 10 on Wednesday, while the WTI closed at its lowest since June 5. 

However, even if you were to drown out the latest din, it is almost inescapable that both benchmarks have struggled to meaningfully maintain a price floor of $70 a barrel. 

Specifically on the global proxy benchmark Brent, as The Oilholic told Reuters, for all of what has been thrown the oil market's way geopolitically, it has struggled to stay above $70 a barrel for any convincing length of time. 

At the time of writing, Brent is down by over 10% on the year, 9% on a six-month basis, and, even more tellingly 11% year-to-date. That's because despite the various permutations and shifts the market has seen, it essentially remains well supplied at a time of uncertain demand.

Furthermore, the various macro factors - most notably China’s manufacturing contraction, weak US labour market data, and the chaos of Trump Tariffs - continue to temper expectations of any sort of lasting bullishness for crude.

Away from crude prices, here are yours truly's Forbes missives on a 10th successive quarterly profit decline at Saudi Aramco, Shell's share buybacks despite its own profits dip, and BP's latest bid to cheer up its underwhelmed shareholders. 

Additionally, here's The Oilholic's latest column for Energy Connects on the sector's incremental embrace of industrial AI and the commercial opportunities that presents the technology industry. 

Well that's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Exploring Elysian Aircraft's electric E9X plane concept

(Left to right: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, Reynard De Vries, Chief Engineer, Elysian Aircraft and Rob Wolleswinkel, Co-CEO and Chief Technology Officer, Elysian Aircraft) 

Earlier this month, The Oilholic headed out to Hoofddorp, The Netherlands, where in the shadow of one of the world's busiest transport hub - Schiphol Airport - startup Elysian Aircraft is attempting something rather unique. 

The company is aiming to build a narrow-body electric plane - something very few, if any, of its peers are having a crack at. In fact, up until the visit, this blogger had only encountered four to 20-seater zero air mobility concepts around the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) and electric conventional takeoff and landing (eCTOL) spheres. 

But Elysian's concept plane called the E9X will be capable of carrying 90 passengers over 500 miles on a single charge. The projected capacity is around half that of the airline industry's short-haul work-horses Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320. It would have a decent chance of success in an industry that appears desperate to lower its carbon footprint. 

To discuss the E9X's potential, pitfalls, development trajectory and taking it to market, The Oilholic sat down for both an off-record as well as on-record analyst's briefing with Elysian's co-founders Daniel Rosen Jacobson (Co-CEO), Reynard De Vries (Chief Engineer) and Rob Wolleswinkel (Co-CEO and chief technology officer) as well as four other members of the now 30-strong team. 

Based on the on-record exchanges with the team, here is the Oilholic's recent feature on Elysian for Forbes. As for the off-record discussions, the plane's proof of concept does stand up to independent scrutiny is all this blogger can say at present, something the startup itself has been working tirelessly on. 

A paper co-authored by De Vries and Wolleswinkel, and two others, published by the Delft University of Technology, is well worth a read too in this context, if you wish to. 

Furthermore, Wolleswinkel told this blogger that his colleagues are under no illusion about the magnitude of the task ahead, but have the courage of their convictions to make it happen in an emerging electric aircraft segment that is littered with more failures than signs of tangible successes.

The company's Series A funding is likely to close by the end of the current quarter, according to Jacobson, who added that it was all about taking "phased but assured steps forward" with patient capital investments. 

It remains a tough landscape of carbon-neutral air travel solutions. Therefore, it remains to be seen how it will go for this electric aviation startup. As things stand, the E9X prototype is expected in 2030, and a service entry by 2033. The Oilholic wishes Team Elysian Aircraft well and will now keep a very keen eye out for their progress. 

With those final thoughts, its time to take your leave. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma with Elysian Aircraft's co-founders. Photo II: Elysian Aircraft's E9X conceptual image. © Elysian Aircraft, July 2025. 

On price caps and sub-$70 crude

Earlier this month, Brent crude futures touched $70 per barrel levels despite a suggested uptick in the amount of oil OPEC+ was bringing on to the market. 

The widely held belief here was that internal cheating or quota busting within OPEC+ ranks meant the announced increase wasn't what it was being made out to be. 

In step with that, Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea upped the geopolitical stakes a bit. 

Then a week ago, the EU and UK moved to lower the price cap on Russian crude from $60 per barrel to $47 per barrel, with effect from September 3. As inventory data at the time also pointed to a decline, traders took their cue and kept prices elevated. 

But keeping prices at $70 Brent levels looked unrealistic then, and has proven to be so in the sessions that have followed since. Thing is, as past Western sanctions and price caps on Russian crude have demonstrated, it always finds a way to reach where those willing to buy it need it, albeit at a discount that's priced comfortably above price cap. 

For instance, the previous price cap and sanctions regime did not prevent India from taking plenty of Russian crude, cracking it and exporting petroleum products and distillates around the world. This point hasn't been lost on the EU, which took a direct swipe at India's Nayara Energy (formerly Essar Oil) - the operator of the country's second-largest single-site refining complex in the coastal town of Vadinar, in which Russia's Rosneft has a stake. 

However, European curbs on Nayara's exports derived from Western sanctions-ridden Russian crude are unlikely to make any tangible difference to the wider scheme of things. India's exposure to the European market is not what it used to be, and its domestic market is more than capable of picking up middle distillate volumes left unexported. 

The wider crude market has also come to the belief that should China and India want Russian crude in higher volumes, they will find a way. Hence, the current decline in prices. Overall, there is ample crude in the market and current price levels are unlikely to be sustained. We are looking at a likely surplus from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, as yours truly noted via Forbes post earlier this month, if not earlier. As such lower prices may beckon. 

Finally, here are another couple of the Oilholic's Forbes missives - the first a take on OPEC's latest forecast dismissing peak oil demand and projecting a global demand growth of 123 million bpd by 2050 contrary to the opinion of many in the market, and the second, a take on how China and India are keeping coal in play and a future energy transition at bay! 

Well that's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

On OPEC's higher output, no peak demand & no access

OPEC's two-day biennial 9th International Seminar came to a conclusion on Thursday after its key voices roundly declared the world simply needed more oil, there was no prospect of peak demand any time soon and denied half the world's scribes an opportunity to forensically question that assertion. 

More on the latter point later, but as The Oilholic noted in an overnight Forbes missive, the Saudi energy minister and de facto OPEC leader Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned against hurting global economic growth and people's "affordability" in the name of energy transition, multiple attendees confirmed to the Oilholic. 

The minister also said Wednesday that as renewable energy sources continue to grow, hydrocarbons will remain “indispensable” in supporting the economic progress of developing countries, and ensuring mission critical hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, aviation and haulage keep going.

And on Thursday - the second and final day of the OPEC Seminar - OPEC published its World Oil Outlook report claiming that crude demand will average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. The producers' group expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and then rise to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and as high as 123 million bpd by 2050. To be read as - there's not going to be a peak demand scenario any time soon.

Now speaking of being reliant on third parties and quotes of seminar attendees to bring you these snippets dear readers, you may be wondering what's afoot. Well, for the first time since September 2004, OPEC turned down the Oilholic's request to attend, write op-eds for Forbes and blogs from the seminar.

Yours truly wasn't alone. It also withheld access to a number of global newswires, WSJ and FT, among many others. And for good measure, the event management company was instructed to tell all "non-partner media" journalists that the venue was full to capacity in case they turned up at the registration desk unannounced. 

There's not much one can do about this, but it didn't stop The Oilholic from flagging the goings-on at the event, and meeting and greeting familiar friends and faces from our 'crude' world. 

Still not sure what triggered but if it has something to do with objective reporting and searching questions - that ain't getting compromised folks, not now, not ever!

Non-access also meant that market commentary had to be done offsite, including with Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV. Yours truly discussed Brent crude touching $70 per barrel intraday on Wednesday with Senior Business News Anchor Nour Amache, and why near-term market sentiment was being impacted by lower inventories and anticipated higher summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere.

Furthermore, OPEC may have raised its output, but the hikes have already largely been factored in by traders. So, the move is currently not serving as a drag on prices. However, it would be interesting to note what happens when summer demand tails off, and the fourth quarter approaches with more OPEC+ barrels and hedged US / non-OPEC crude on the market. 

That will likely create a surplus, especially for light sweet crude, thereby potentially driving prices lower. Who knows, it may even convince US President Donald Trump to perhaps top up his country's strategic reserves. It seems we're heading for an interesting second half of the year. 

Well that's all from Vienna folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo I: Gaurav Sharma, energy analyst outside OPEC International Seminar venue at Hofburg Palace in Vienna, Austria on July 9, 2025 © Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma offers oil market commentary on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025. © Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025.

Vienna bound ahead of OPEC seminar

After the latest OPEC meeting follows the producers' group's seminar - its invitation to the great and the good of the energy world held once every two years in Vienna. 

As the Oilholic heads out there for a business trip, while sitting and musing at London's Heathrow airport before the flight, one cannot but help notice that oil benchmarks are on the up. 

That's despite OPEC+'s decision to up production by another half a million plus barrels. The group has effectively unwound nearly 90% of the so-called "voluntary" cuts it brought in back in 2022. Conventional market wisdom would suggest that oil futures would head lower on the development but they haven't. 

That's down to three key reasons. They include: (1) an expectation that the summer driving season in Northern Hemisphere in general, and the US in particular, would absorb the additional barrels, (2) an uptick in attacks on cargoes in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels providing an element of risk, and (3) a belief that quota busting within OPEC+ ranks means many of the additional barrels are not all that additional at all. 

Regardless of where we head to in the very near-term, there is likely to be a surplus and relatively weaker prices as the end of the year approaches. It sets up an interesting second half of the trading year, one, that as things stand, the market bears are likely to win bar another major geopolitical flare-up or a macroeconomic event. 

Well that's all for now folks. More musing from Vienna soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma, June 2025.

Do sub $60 oil prices beckon in H2 2025?

The second half of the current crude oil trading year was ushered in by a larger-than-expected output hike by OPEC+ over the weekend, just ahead of the first week's trades in Asia. The market was largely pricing in a 411,000 bpd hike like the previous month, but got a whopping 548,000 bpd uptick instead. 

The latest addition effectively unwinds nearly 90% of the "voluntary" OPEC+ cuts in place since 2022. Here is the Oilholic's take on it via a column for Forbes. Unmistakably, this is a very bearish development. But it is also a statement of intent that OPEC is more than willing to take the fight to non-OPEC producers in a bid for a higher market share. 

Of course, non-OPEC production - especially that of the US - continues to go from strength-to-strength, at least for now, until production hedges unwind in the next 12 to 18 months. Until then it might well be a buyers' market with likely lower, even sub $60 per barrel Brent prices in a glut-ridden market. 

And speaking of the US, here is yours truly's latest Energy Connects column on how that record high US production has effectively reset the global energy market's risk premiums, as recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated.   

The said events, i.e. the Israel-Iran conflict and the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities by the US, were the subject of The Oilholic's most recent appearance on TRT World's Round Table programme. Escalating tensions brought home long-held market anxieties - about energy cargoes in the Strait being disrupted as well as higher risk premiums - to the fore once again. 

Together with fellow guests on the programme, yours truly discussed why the closure of the Strait would be an act of self-harm for Iran, why Tehran simply won't (and didn't) do it, and ultimately why oil prices failed to hold on to the gains following a cessation of hostilities, courtesy of a well-supplied market and lacklustre demand growth. 

Here's an upload of the broadcast via TRT World's YouTube stream. Have a listen in if interested. Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on TRTWorld's Round Table programme in June 2025 © TRT World, 2025.

Oil market fundamentals return with aplomb

The oil futures slide began even before Iran's muted response to the US bombing of its nuclear sites had ended on Monday. And the benchmarks tanked further still once a ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect in the following session. 

That's because oil market fundamentals took hold the moment de-risking started, evaporating the so-called risk premium double quick. 

Prior to this week's declines, oil futures had risen 20% month-over-month. Those price gains have now almost entirely been lost. And so much so for the outlandish claims that Iran may shut the Strait of Hormuz, which was never going to happen as yours truly noted in a column for Forbes. 

Since the start of hostilities on June 13, the Oilholic has always maintained that if there was a swift end to the conflict - as has been the case - price will fall rapidly again. That's because the market remains well supplied with plenty of non-Middle Eastern, non-OPEC crude from Brazil, Canada, Guyana, Norway, and indeed - the US - still the world's number 1 producer of oil. 

If you believe global oil demand growth for 2025 to be in the region that's just a smidge north or south of 1 million barrels per day, that can be serviced by growth in non-OPEC production alone. And OPEC+ led by the Saudis and Russians is also pumping more in a fight for market share. 

It all points to a market surplus come the end of 2025, especially for light sweet crude. That itself points to oil prices heading lower, perhaps even below $60! Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Crudely heading down uncharted 'dire straits'?

On Saturday night the Israel-Iran conflict, and its domino effect on the world's energy markets, took another twist after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. 

The Americans dropped 14 “bunker buster” bombs against three nuclear facilities in Iran - Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. The move came just over a week on from Israel's own campaign of attacks on Iran's nuclear and military targets began. Inevitably, Iran responded with retaliatory missile strikes of its own on Israel. 

But the latest escalation by the US takes the oil market into uncharted waters (or straits shall we say). Early on in Israel's campaign, many assumed Iran's oil and gas infrastructure would not be attacked. However, that myth was shattered after Israel attacked Shahran Oil Terminal in Tehran, and two natural gas fields that Iran shares with Qatar. 

It hinted at the possibility that the Israelis were in no mood to compromise. Thereafter, oil futures capped the $75 mark, and lurked some 20% above last month's levels using Brent as a benchmark. 

Unsurprisingly, old market chatter that Iran would somehow close or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz has resurfaced, as yours truly discussed in an interview with Germany's ARD Radio 1 on Tuesday while out in the Middle East. 

The Oilholic also discussed the direction of the market with Turkiye's Anadolu News Agency noting that if the crisis persists and / or worsens, crude price points will have to recalibrate to a new normal around $80 per barrel Brent prices. However, if tensions or the conflict are quickly diffused, we could see a drop to $70 or below, as and when more normalized market fundamentals kick in once again.

The Oilholic also subsequently said in a BBC interview on Friday that the very fact we happen to be discussing oil breaching a $80 ceiling and not a $100 one is because the market remains well supplied ahead of the US summer driving season. 

It's also a perception helped in no small part by the Saudis via OPEC+ and a decision by the producers' group to raise production for three successive months. 

It's why the market has priced in a heightened level of near-term hostilities between Israel and Iran in as balanced a way as possible, without succumbing to unfounded conjecture or worse still an actual push toward $100 driven by paper bulls - especially now that chatter about Tehran blockading the Strait of Hormuz is all the rage again. 

So, here's yours truly's take via Forbes on why its something the Iranians have threatened to do since the 1980s, but have in actual fact never done or attempted even once, and remains a highly unlikely prospect despite any chatter of any sort. 

However, Iran-backed Houthi Rebels could make life difficult for energy shipping by resuming their attacks in the other strait - i.e. the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. 

Of course, the Israel-Iran story still has some way to go. But the presence of a lot of non-OPEC oil is keeping somewhat of a lid on things. It's why in the small hours of the morning in Europe, and early morning trading in Asia on Monday, gains in the wake of the attack still remain muted at sub-$80 Brent crude prices. (02:00am BST)

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. Photo II: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on BBC News channel. © BBC, June 2025.