Oil shed $10/bbl or 14% week-on-week on Trump Tariffs

Oil futures have taken a heavy pummelling in the wake of the so-called Trump Tariffs right down to four-year lows. That's after President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports to the US, and much higher rates of up to 50% against dozens of countries. 

With major manufacturing centers in Asia on the President's tariffs list published on April 2, both Brent and WTI front-month futures subsequently shed over $10 per barrel or 14% from the price they were trading at the day before the announcement.  

The extreme volatility has brought WTI down below $60 per barrel and Brent shy of $65. A modicum of market calm is unlikely in the short-term, more so as the President has vowed further tariffs against countries (e.g. China) who chose to retaliate. Indeed, there is relatively little to be bullish about oil at the moment. 

In fact, the Oilholic argues via an op-ed in Forbes that bearish sentiment was already entrenched in

crude markets heading in to the second quarter of 2025, before the President's move amplified it. 

So even when the tariff din subsides, it may be wise not to expect an overshoot past prices noted prior to Trump crude shock. (Here's more.)

Yours truly also offered his analysis on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, noting that the road ahead for crude markets will likely be very, very choppy thanks to uncertain demand in China, doubts over the performance of the global economy and lower levels of consumer confidence in key markets. The full interview (dubbed in Arabic) is available here. 

There's heavy uncertainty all around from the commodities market to equites, with real fears of an international trade war and a global recession. So, how much of a drag it turns out to be on near-term oil prices is anyone's guess. Oil futures will remain hostage to Trump's next move. 

Away from crude matters, the Oilholic also published his latest Energy Connects missive on the global digital economy being powered by natural gas for decades. Here's more, have a read on why all those hyperscale datacentres simply cant be powered by renewable energy alone for a good few decades if not more. 

Well that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV channel © Asharq Business, April 2025.

Media missives from CERAWeek 2025

With CERAWeek 2025 by S&P Global drawing to a close on March 14, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week out in Houston by having insightful 1-on-1 discussions, panel chats and wider interactions on the global energy mix and where it is heading to. 

All blog entries for CERAWeek may be found here. Yours truly also provided insight to Energy Connects and Forbes throughout the event as detailed below. 

First off, here are one's daily observations for Energy Connects on the first three days of the event:

• US Energy Secretary and oil industry leaders call for a realistic approach to the energy transition, March 11, 2025.
• Energy leaders call the US a prime investment market, March 12, 2025.
• Leading cross-sector executives pledge to triple global nuclear capacity by 2030, March 13, 2025.

And secondly, here go all observations, interactions and interviews from CERAWeek for Forbes:

• U.S. Energy Secretary Blasts Renewables, Vows To Support Oil And Gas, March 10, 2025.
• Guyana’s Buoyant Oil Exports Find Eager Buyers In Europe, March 12, 2025.
• Activist Investor Drives BP To Do ‘Fewer Things, With Higher Returns’, March 12, 2025.
• Practical Decarbonization Solutions Must Be Nurtured, Says MHI Group’s Green Solutions CEO, March 13, 2025.

And that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma at CERAWeek 2025 © Gaurav Sharma 2025. 

CERAWeek Days IV & V: Going nuclear & rounding up

The home stretch of CERAWeek did not disappoint. But before Days IV and V got underway, the conclusion of Wednesday (Day III) brought perhaps the biggest talking point of the event.

That's after the World Nuclear Association, anchored a huge group of cross-sector executives to commit to expanding nuclear energy.  

How huge you ask dear readers? Well it counts Google, Amazon, Meta, Occidental and Dow, 14 major global banks and financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, and 140 nuclear industry companies among its ranks. Over 30 countries have also pledged their support.  

The target - a tripling of global nuclear power capacity by 2030, which is currently less than 10% of the energy mix. Here's the Oilholic's full in-depth report for Energy Connects on the development. 

One thing the announcement did immediately do is puncture the fawning over natural gas being the fuel to meet the world's power demands that we'd heard for almost three days of the event. More so, as several tech giants - whose burgeoning hypersonic datacentres natural gas is supposed to power - backed the nuclear announcement.

Away from it all, yours truly took time to meet Dr Hitoshi Kaguchi, Senior EVP, President and CEO of GX solutions, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group. 

Dr Kaguchi's team is busy conjuring up his company's green solutions along their two preferred silos - carbon capture and hydrogen. It was a fascinating conversation, full length of which may be found here on Forbes. 

And there were dialogues a plenty, although some of the conversation was a bit tamer with many of the heavy hitters - sorry to say so - having already come and gone. 

Nonetheless, the bosses of National Grid, Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation, NRG Energy, Edison International and AES Corporation took the dialogue forward on utilities on Days IV and V and how to secure power in our complex world. 

'Crude' conversations were kept alive by a panel on Energy in Latin America with the bosses of Ecopetrol, Tecpetrol, and others partaking in discussions on some of the regional energy transition complexities, and bearing in mind that the global South needs to be included in all discussions. 

And finally, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who has been at CERAWeek all week, addressed the final day's leadership dialogue on "Alaska and the world." And that's a wrap for CERAWeek 2025. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous (left) with Hitoshi Kaguchi, Senior EVP, President and CEO of GX solutions, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group © Gaurav Sharma 2025.

CERAWeek Days II & III: US market, BP's reset and LNG

Days II & III of CERAWeek 2025 have zipped by with plenty of soundbites, among which (1) fawning over the US as a key energy investment destination, (2) discussions over the LNG market, and (3) BP's reset chatter stood out for the Oilholic.

For much of Tuesday (Day II), all you could hear was how the US had become the prime energy investment market, since the election of Donald Trump as President. Here is your's truly's full report for the day on such quips for Energy Connects. 

Chastened by a near-5% stake by activist investor Elliot Investment Management, BP's boss Murray Auchincloss spoke at CERAWeek to explain his company's reset, a return to oil and gas basics and improving company-wide efficiencies. Click here for one's Forbes piece on Auchincloss' outing in Houston. 

Guyana's President Irfaan Ali came to town as well to touch upon his country's phenomenal growth in crude oil production. Its light, sweet variety of crude it appears is something that European importers simply can't get enough of.

Discourse over the importance of the global LNG market and its role in servicing the world's burgeoning power demand dominated much of Day II too, and spilled over into Wednesday (Day III). 

Many delegates deliberated energy giant Shell's latest LNG demand forecast of a rise by around 60% by 2040, largely driven by economic growth in Asia, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport as well as the impact of artificial intelligence.

The energy major reckons more than 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply are set to be available by 2030, helping to meet stronger gas demand, especially in Asia. 

But it has to be acknowledged that start-up timings of new LNG projects remain uncertain.

The Oilholic also took time out for some key networking receptions and talks on both days. 

The first of these engagements included listening to Indian commodities industrialist and Chairman of Vedanta Group Anil Agarwal, about his fascinating journey and the international collaborations being sought by Cairn Oil and Gas, which his group owns. (See photo above)

It was also an immense pleasure and privilege to join the Women In Energy reception at CERAWeek and learn more about the Power Play Awards by ExxonMobil. (See photo left)

The awards, in their seventh year, celebrate individuals within the LNG and decarbonization value chain. 

As announced by S&P Global Vice Chairman Dan Yergin himself, the nominations for the awards are now open dear readers. The winners are expected be revealed at Gastech 2025 in Milan in September. 

And finally, last but certainly not the least, this blogger also had the pleasure of listening to none other than the inimitable Harold Hamm, Chairman of Continental Resources, about his book, his journey, his company's expansion plans, US political climate and more! (See photo below)

Finally, a bit of a footnote to both days as well - a number of energy bosses, including Hamm, believe that US production would plateau by the end of the decade. 

This group also includes Ryan Lance, CEO of ConocoPhillips and Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental, among others. 

But to quote Lance: "It will be a slow decline beyond 2030. That causes some issues. Market share for OPEC+ starts rising again as US production starts to plateau and demand continues to rise as we think it will over time. 

"But there's a ton of resources in the US. I've never been against this industry in terms of technology because you can always figure out a way to get more resource out of the rock."

And that's all for now folks, more to follow over the coming days. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: CERAWeek Signage. Photo II: Anil Agarwal, Chairman of Vedanta speaks at a Carin Oil and Gas CERAWeek reception. Photo III: CERAWeek 2025's Women in Energy reception. Photo III: Harold Hamm, Chairman of Continental Resources, speaks at CERAWeek 2025 © Gaurav Sharma 2025.

Checking out Vaeridion's electric 'microliner' concept

(Left to right: Ivor van Dartel, Founder and CEO of Vaeridion, Markus Kochs-Kämper, CTO of Vaeridion, and Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, at the startup's laboratory and engineering site in the Bosch Innovation Campus in Holzkirchen, Germany)

Late last month, the Oilholic headed out to the Bosch Innovation Campus in Holzkirchen, Germany, some 25 miles south of Munich, for a visit to green aviation startup Vaeridion's laboratory and engineering test site of its 'microliner' electric plane concept. 

The company is aiming to make to carbon-neutral electric powered flights the norm for short-haul travel; a niche but lucrative regional market currently serviced in many parts of the world by an ageing conventional fleet of aircraft.

Vaeridion's bold idea is a nine-seater electric plane with a range of 400km, deemed more than sufficient for short hops in a number of regional markets in Europe and beyond. Although the startup's founder and CEO Ivor van Dartel told yours truly his initial focus would be on Northern Europe (BeNeLux, the Nordics and Germany).

And what is it that van Dartel and the good folks at Vaeridion are attempting to put in the air dear readers? The Oilholic would say its brilliant, yet simple and here's how it goes. The electric power train would be supported by rechargeable high voltage batteries integrated in the plane's wing. 

The plane itself will run on a single propeller, but with multi-engine support of two mechanically and electrically segregated motors. 

The microliner will have a dual flight deck and can be operated by a single pilot. And unlike some in the sphere, Vaeridion's solution would be 100% electric. (See right, click to enlarge concept illustration.)

The idea has solid wings - no pun intended. Here's the Oilholic's recent feature on the startup for Forbes, wherein van Dartel has discussed his business plans for taking Vaeridion's microliner to market.

In a nutshell, test flights of the prototype are scheduled for 2027, and first delivery of the aircraft by 2030, with an ambition to produce and move up to 250 planes per year by / before the middle of the next decade.

To support this ambition, Vaeridion's has raised €14 million (£11.75 million, $15.20 million) in a recent funding round involving multiple prominent venture capital funds. They include World Fund and Vsquared Ventures, whose founding partner the Oilholic had the pleasure of meeting in Munich, and was revealed to be the startup's very first backer. 

The investors appear to be in it for the whole journey and Vaeridion is in talks to secure further capital. Especially, as van Dartel and his team are working on a green air mobility solution that will likely be among us by the end of the decade to fulfil a very specific potentially money making niche.

And when the Vaeridion microliner finally takes off, it would be the culmination of a long-held professional ambition of van Dartel's, who is a former Airbus engineer. "Electric air mobility has been on my mind since 2007, when sustainability wasn't even mainstream as it is today. The concept remained close to my heart and the spark stayed with me throughout my professional journey at Airbus."

In over a decade of service at the global aircraft manufacturer, van Dartel worked on Airbus' A380, A350 models, operations, manufacturing, special projects and ultimately became a generalist in 2017, before moving on to its defence and aerospace division in 2019.

Ultimately, he left Airbus in 2021 with the flame rekindled, armed with over 10 years of experience in complex projects, to launch Vaeridion. Today his 50-strong, and rapidly growing, team boasts of fellow dreamers from nearly 20 nationalities, some of whom joined his startup when it had no money or secured funding. 

Vaeridion appears to be on the cusp of making a difference, and attempting something that won't be easy by any means in an evolving, tough landscape of carbon-neutral air travel solutions. It remains to be seen how it will go for this aviation startup, but the Oilholic wishes Team Vaeridion well. 

With those final thoughts, its time to take your leave. More musings to follow soon - next stop Houston, for CERAWeek. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: (Left to right) Ivor van Dartel, Founder and CEO of Vaeridion, Markus Kochs-Kämper, CTO of Vaeridion, and Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, at the startup's laboratory and engineering site in the Bosch Innovation Campus in Holzkirchen, Germany. © Gaurav Sharma, February 2025. Photo II: Vaeridion's microliner electric aircraft concept. © Vaeridion, December 2024. 

Crude prices in tariff war zone as OPEC+ wakes up

Global crude oil markets have taken a bit of a double whammy. First off, US President Donald Trump - a.k.a (perhaps) Tariff Man - is back with... err ..tariffs! Canada, Mexico and China were all (again) in the firing line and (again) retaliated with tariffs of their own against the US. 

As global stock markets plunged, commodity prices took a knock, oil benchmarks slumped as well and then some more. That's because OPEC+ finally woke up to the reality of its production restraint propping up prices as well, as it continues to hemorrhage market share to non-OPEC producers. 

On Monday, with its production already at a one-year high, the producers' group finally decided it had had enough and would start phasing out its 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) voluntary production cut from April. This would be done via monthly increases of 138,000 bpd until the cuts are fully reversed by Q4 2026. 

For clarity, the eight OPEC+ countries - that previously announced these "additional voluntary adjustments" - include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. They were only intending to keep the cuts in place as an interim measure. But kept on rolling the cuts well beyond what they had originally proposed. 

However, overnight they provided a downside surprise to the market when many were expecting another rolling over of the cuts. Before news of the OPEC+ decision arrived, crude prices were already trending lower with Brent and WTI front-month contracts down 3.97% and 3.31% respectively, on the prior week. The double whammy knocked the benchmarks further lower with Brent breaking the $70 per barrel resistance barrier intraday. 

At 18:42 GMT on Wednesday, the Oilholic noted Brent down 2.55% or $1.81 to $69.12 per barrel, while the WTI was down 2.96% or $2.04 to $65.92 per barrel. All indications point to a bearish week at a time when macroeconomic scenarios ranging from uncertain Chinese demand to the threat of global trade wars point to lower crude prices. 

While Trump's moves are often unpredictable, it must be acknowledged that sooner or later OPEC+ would unwind its production. And, so, it has happened! More OPEC+ as well as non-OPEC+ crude may be expected over the near-term tariffs or no tariffs. 

Away from oil, but sticking with Trump, here are yours truly's thoughts in an interview with MarketWatch on Trump's plan to tap mineral wealth from Ukraine, and of course, at home and wherever else possible abroad. 

That's all for now folks, more to follow over the course of the month. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. 

Media missives from India Energy Week 2025

With India Energy Week 2025 drawing to a close on February 14, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week out in Delhi by hosting pivotal industry panel sessions at the event on subjects ranging from bridging the energy transition's investment gaps to harnessing the power of shale oil and gas.

All blog entries for India Energy Week may be found here. Yours truly also provided insight to Energy Connects ahead of the event as detailed below: 

• India's oil demand growth offers abundant opportunities for global suppliers, February 4, 2025.

And here are selected Forbes copies in chronological order based on soundbites and insight from the event. 

• Is India’s Energy Sector Heading For A Big Investment Boom? January 28, 2024
• India’s Modi Renews Pledge Of 500 GW Green Energy Capacity By 2030, February 12, 2024
• Tough But Doable? Financing Net Zero May Require $4 Trillion By 2050, February 13, 2024
• India Won’t Clobber Consumers To Meet Climate Targets, Says Oil Minister, February 13, 2024

And that's a wrap for this year's India Energy Week. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma (far left)hosts a panel at India Energy Week 2025 © dmgevents, February 2025. 

IEW 2025 Days III & IV: India's quest for a gas economy

Over the course of Thursday and Friday - days III & IV - of India Energy Week 2025 that put us on the home stretch of the global event, conversations turned more meaningfully towards the Indian government's assertion of placing a 'gas economy' at the heart of its march to net zero by 2070. 

What many in the industry choose to describe as a 'bridging fuel', is a medium the Indian government, and indeed many others, appear comfortable in embracing to wean them off coal and help with a shift to more sustainable sources. 

In India's case, the country's Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri is leading the charge personally. Yours truly had the pleasure of reconnecting with the Minister and interviewing him for Forbes to discuss a host of energy related issues. Have a read here if you wish. 

In its collaborative transformation of the energy mix, the current Indian government is carefully examining the US shale revolution. Shale has already greatly changed the rules of international oil and gas trade and geopolitics, with the US making a significant shift from conventional to non-conventional oil and gas fields.

To this effect, the Oilholic hosted a Day III session titled "Harnessing the force of shale oil and gas in building future global energy systems."

Eminent panellists included Barnali Barua Tokhi, MD, Bharat PetroResources Ltd, Rahul Patel, MD and CEO, Transcontinental Energy Services, Trailukya Borgohain, Director (Operations), Oil India Ltd. 

The panel explored emerging concepts in exploration, extraction and distribution that have triggered a global shift in how untapped shale oil and gas resources are used, helping to fill energy supply gaps and change market dynamics. 

As it appears, the world’s remaining proven hydrocarbon reserves, 70% of oil and 45% of gas are considered unconventional. So, how they are tapped matter greatly. The panellists discussed how technological advances have now made many significant reservoirs of recoverable shale resources available to develop in multiple locations worldwide.

As the event neared its close on Day IV, focus also turned to STEM talent and process efficiencies achieved by the industry by deploying industrial AI. And, of course, to the deals that rained at the event as the great and the good of the global energy world queued up to ink agreements in India over the course of the week. 

Signature deals, among several moves, included BP's technical partnerships with EIL and ONGC, BPCL's agreement with Petrobras for 6 million barrels worth of exports to India, and, IOCL and ADNOC's long-term agreement for LNG up to 1.2 mmtpa from 2026 for 14 years.

And here are yours truly's thoughts via Forbes, based on conversations here, on climate finance and the trillions required if the world is to meet its net zero emissions targets. 

Finally, before bidding goodbye to Delhi, the Oilholic also took time out from the hustle and bustle of the conference to provide some analysis, and sum up the goings-on at the event to colleagues at Energy Connects. Watch this space when the good folks at EC publish the interview. 

It's been an immense pleasure and a privilege to attend and speak at India Energy Week for the very first time. But its now time to bid goodbye to India until next year. More thoughts soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: India Energy Week 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma at IEW 2025. Photo III: Gaurav Sharma (left) at the Energy Connects studio in conversation with the media outlet's Editor-in-chief Chiranjib Sengupta at IEW 2025. © Gaurav Sharma 2025.

IEW 2025 Days I & II: Reimagining the future of energy

The first two days of India Energy Week or IEW 2025 have whizzed by with several aspects of the event's core theme - reimagining the future of energy in India and the world - discussed widely at various panel sessions and forums. 

The event was inaugurated on Tuesday by the country's Prime Minister Narendra Modi who noted in his opening remarks that India's wider energy sector ambitions would depend on "key five pillars" - namely "resource availability, a skilled workforce, economic strength, political stability, and strategic geography."

He also reiterated his pledge of more than doubling India's current renewable energy capacity from its current level to 500GW by 2030. Here's The Oilholic's full report for Forbes on the opening remarks. 

Following the Prime Minister's keynote, day I of the event also saw India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri note that the world's energy transition journey can never be a straight cut exercise in resource replacement; rather a nuanced resource utilisation journey reliant on diverse supply chains banking on both  renewable and traditional sources. 

The event also saw several energy ministers from Brazil to Qatar hobnob with their counterparts and delegates on the first day, indicative of the interest in India's energy sector. 

Among them, rather curiously, was UK's eco-zealot minister Ed Miliband who attempted to portray to a foreign audience that he actually cared about the North Sea calling his country a "proud oil and gas producer." But - with his policy actions implying the exact opposite - was widely and rightly ridiculed back home. 

The event's exhibition floor also opened its doors with over 70,000 visitors expected here over the course of the week. Two themes instantly caught this blogger's eye - "Make In India" pegged to domestic manufacturing and Green Hydrogen, an admirable firm favourite of Minister Puri. 

Yours truly also kicked into gear on Day II by moderating a leadership panel session titled "Bridging the energy transition's investment gaps." 

Eminent panelists included Bhupinder Singh Bhalla, Former Secretary of Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Roberto Bocca, Head, Centre for Energy and Minerals, World Economic Forum, Hitesh Vaid, CFO of Cairn Oil and Gas, and Katan Hirachand, Chief Executive & Chief Country Officer - India, Societe Generale. (See below right for details, click on image to enlarge)

It was a fascinating discussion on climate finance acknowledging the complexities and opportunities of the energy transition and the mammoth task of underpinning global action by investment dollars,  trillions of which may be required according to some. Securing these would be the challenge of our age. 

Elsewhere on day II, other sessions touched on the reliable role of gas in the energy mix and discussed the familiar topic of technology as an efficiency enabler and facilitator of faster decarbonisation. 

Various aspects of India's energy ecosystem, its policy framework and investment drive were also examined, and how the global south could perhaps take some learnings from the country's approach over the last decade. That's all for now folks. There's plenty more to come from IEW 2025. So keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Yashobhoomi Convention Centre, Delhi, India - the venue of IEW 2025. Photo II: 'Make In India' display at the IEW 2025 exhibition. Photo III: Gaurav Sharma at the Indian government's green hydrogen booth. © Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo IV: Detail of 'Bridging the energy transition's investment gap.' (Courtesy: dmgevents)

Getting ready for India Energy Week 2025

The Oilholic is delighted to be back in Delhi ahead of India Energy Week 2025 as the world's second-largest of crude oil importer and a leader in renewables opens its doors to the global energy community. 

The week-long event - being held from Feb 11 to 14, 2025 - will showcase India's energy sector and its potential. Yours truly would be speaking and moderating sessions at the event as advised last month.

The venue for India Energy Week happens to be the 100,000 square feet Yashobhoomi Convention Centre near the Indian capital's Indira Gandhi International airport. If you have been out and about town as this blogger has, you can't really miss the event's signage and the buzz created around it from fuel forecourts to shopping malls, transport terminals to state highways leading in to town. 

For background on India's energy sector, should you need it, here are this blogger's thoughts on investment opportunities in the Indian energy sector via a piece on Forbes, and its rising oil demand via a market assessment for Energy Connects. 

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends over an exciting few days in the Indian capital. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in New Delhi. More soon from here. But for now keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma in front of India Energy Week 2025 signage in New Delhi, India.© Gaurav Sharma 2025

A visit to Metafuels SAF 'Aerobrew' lab and pilot plant

(Left to right: Leigh Hackett, Chairman of Metafuels, Marco Ranocchiari, Leader of Energy Systems Integration platform, Paul Scherrer Institute, Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, Saurabh Kapoor, CEO of Metafuels at the Aerobrew pilot plant and laboratory.)

Last month, the Oilholic headed out to the Paul Scherrer Institute in Würenlingen, Switzerland, to visit a laboratory and pilot site run by start-up firm Metafuels. It's attempting something that's a bit different in the sustainable aviation fuels space by producing its fuel via a methanol-to-jet fuel process. 

For context, you'd mostly find that e-sustainable aviation fuels or e-SAFs start-ups (i.e. those deploying renewable energy to produce synthetic fuel), do so by deploying the Fischer-Tropsch process. It involves sequential chemical reactions that convert a carbon monoxide and hydrogen mix, or synthetic gas ("syngas") into liquid hydrocarbons. 

But the team at Mefafuels led by two experts from the carbon capture and storage sphere - CEO Saurabh Kapoor and Chairman Leigh Hackett - is attempting something no other start-up known to yours truly is currently doing by viably deploying methanol synthesis to produce their SAF. 

Via their chosen method, methanol is synthesised from carbon monoxide and hydrogen at high pressure using catalysts made up of copper and zinc oxide. This too is a long-established process. But only recently have petrochemists managed to create pathways and additional steps for synthesising longer-chain hydrocarbons such as butylene, ethylene, propylene, and ultimately kerosene / jet fuel. 

Kapoor, Hackett, and a third co-founder Ulrich Koss, along with a team of a dozen people, believe they have come up with a methanol-to-jet fuel process that makes their e-SAF "economically viable" with fewer unwanted by-products and less waste compared to the routinely deployed Fischer-Tropsch process. 

In their laboratory, Metafuels demonstrated to the Oilholic that the synthesis works as they intend it to, and with the desired efficiency, to produce a jet fuel they've trademarked with a rather catchy name - Aerobrew. (See right)

Several members of the team, including Kapoor and Hackett, as well as designated officials from the Paul Scherrer Institute led by Marco Ranocchiari, spent an entire day with The Oilholic, explaining and demonstrating the viable path to upscaling their Aerobrew. 

Moving beyond the lab, Metafuels' demonstration plant with a production capacity of 50 litres is nearly complete which this blogger was also given a kind tour of. The plant will help Metafuels work on concepts for producing Aerobrew on a much larger scale. 

And speaking of scaling up the process, here's yours truly's feature on Metafuels for Forbes, which touches on the firm's plans for commercialising Aerobrew. The first step of this would an industrial-scale commercial plant with a capacity of 5000 litres, or hundred-times that of the pilot plant by 2028. 

The anticipated cost of production of 5,000 litres of Metafuels' e-SAF will likely be around 50% lower and the yield around 80% higher, according to the company. This is massive if achieved on a commercial scale. 

While The Oilholic can personally testify that Metafuels' offer is what it says on the tin, or shall we say an eagerly-awaited barrel of Aerobrew - the start-up is neither short of belief nor backers. 

Speaking of the latter, it has raised $22 million so far in funding via a diverse set of venture capital funds. 

At the time of writing, these include Celsius Industries, RockCreek, Fortescue Energy Ventures, Verve Ventures, Energy Impact Partners and Contrarian Ventures, as well as the Swiss Federal Office of Energy. The future looks promising for both Metafuels, and the demand for SAFs, especially in European aviation markets. 

So, it will be interesting to see where this goes, and the Oilholic intends to keep you posted when / where possible. With those final thoughts, it's time take your leave. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: The Oilholic with the Metafuels team at Aerobrew lab as captioned. Photo II: Metafuels SAF Aerobrew. Photo III: The Oilholic with the Metafuels team at Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland. © Gaurav Sharma, December 18, 2024. 

Speaking and moderating at India Energy Week 2025

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be moderating and speaking at India Energy Week 2025 due to be held in New Delhi, India from February 11 to 14, 2025. This global energy event aims to unite over 700+ exhibitors, 70,000+ energy professionals and 500+ speakers from across the globe. It will offer invaluable insights, thought leadership, foster collaboration among key stakeholders and accelerate progress on the sustainable energy agenda. 

Explore the event's groundbreaking agenda and register as a delegate here. 

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in New Delhi.

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Digital event banner courtesy of dmgevents, 2025.

"Drill Baby, Drill!" (Again)

What can only be described as the greatest political comeback in history was completed on Monday by Donald J. Trump as he returned to the White House as the 47th President of the United States. 

Destroying all premature political obituaries about him and opponents of descriptions, the Trump 2.0 era began with a familiar cry of "drill baby, drill" from the President, among other things. 

Drill the Americans will, and already are, pumping north of 13 million barrels per day of crude oil. Here's The Oilholic's Forbes piece on the day's 'crude' developments and how the President wants to tap into America's "liquid gold" to usher in a "a new golden era" for the country. 

As for the oil price itself, this blogger stands by what one told Reuters earlier during the day's trading session - the Trump administration will most likely go after Iran and Venezuela, with heightened sanctions on Russia already priced in oil market. 

This will likely keep the Brent front-month futures contract around $80 per barrel. However, the direction of travel from there will be dictated by emerging Trump policies, non-OPEC production, international trade wars (or not) and China's economy. 

That's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: US flag. © DWilliam / Pixabay, 2015. 

Oil spikes as US hikes sanctions on Russia & more

Happy New Year dear readers. Oil trading began on a much firmer footing this month, with Brent capping the $80 per barrel mark for the first time in three months on January 10. 

The global proxy benchmark has pretty much stayed near the mark in the couple of market sessions we have had since, as traders get their first quarter antennae up to gauge the direction of travel. And, of course, factor in recent news of heightened US sanctions on Russia's oil exports.

Many of the curbs target what's described as a "shadow fleet" of ageing non-Western oil tankers that carry Russia's oil. It has sent China and India - two of the biggest buyers of Moscow's black gold - scrambling for alternatives while they work out the situation. 

Extremely cold weather in the North Hemisphere, and an anticipation of tougher sanctions on Iran by an incoming Donald Trump administration are also providing an upside. However, wider market fundamentals have not shifted by much. 

The dollar remains relatively strong, lack of clarity on where China's demand may eventually go this year persists and there is still plenty of non-OPEC oil out in the market to meet global demand growth projections just north of 1 million barrels per day. 

Many are also factoring in higher US production levels in 2025. So the current firmness in Brent prices may prove to be short-lived. 

Away from the oil market, yours truly also discussed Central Europe's natural gas conundrum following Ukraine's new year's eve decision to end Russian energy transit via its territory on CGTN earlier this month. 

Basically, the old continent will need to find around 15 bcm of natural gas from elsewhere, which it can but at a considerably higher cost. (Full interview clip here).

Finally, switching tack to market related political developments, the year has begun with oil rich Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (finally) on his way out of office and an election on the horizon. Meanwhile, incoming US President Donald Trump has caused a stir revisiting his attempt to acquire the resource-rich and strategically important Arctic island of Greenland. 

We're barely a week away from Trump entering the White House with massive implications for the energy market and beyond. And on that note, its time to say goodbye for now. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. 

Driving home for Christmas... (petrol prices edition)

Season's greetings dear readers. Many of you may be driving home for Christmas and looking forward to the New Year, with perhaps that most famous of Chris Rea songs playing on the radio. 

As you fuel up for the journey ahead, it is now pretty certain the current year and its festive season will end with petrol prices (or gasoline if you wish) at their lowest since 2021. 

That's because crude oil prices are at their lowest for nearly three years too, owing to lower demand (mainly from China), higher supply (largely from the US) and a stronger dollar (courtesy of the US Federal Reserve). 

Here are your truly's observations on the current market permutations via Forbes, and why lower prices may last well in to 2025. 

From a UK perspective, at the time of writing this blog, a litre of petrol would set you back on average by 135p (US$1.70), and sub 130p if you happen to a Costco member. In fact, lower prices at the pump are being replicated across Europe.  

And average US prices are pretty low this festive season as well, with a gallon of petrol going for $3.145 this week, counting in regional fluctuations around the mark. That's $0.83 per litre or 66p - a price, as always, many in Europe can only dream of!

On that note, it's time to take your leave for the festive week. The Oilholic will be back in Jan. And wherever you are driving or travelling to (or not driving or travelling at all), be safe and merry. Here's wishing you all a great Christmas & a Happy New Year! The Oilholic will be back in Jan, after the holidays. 

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Driving in Gloucestershire, UK on December 23, 2024 © Gaurav Sharma 2024. 

Media missives from ADIPEC 2024

With ADIPEC 2024 drawing to a close on November 7, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week out in Abu Dhabi by hosting four pivotal industry panel sessions at the event on subjects ranging from climate finance to hydrogen markets in Asia.

Yours truly also hit the airwaves to discuss the wider energy market, impact of the US elections, an incoming Donald Trump administration and the various developments at ADIPEC 2024 which attracted over 200,000 people this year. 

These included broadcasting calls with the BBC, WION, Energy Connects and more, with this blogger's week also peppered with plenty of missives via the keyboard for Forbes, and of course this blog.

All blog entries for each ADIPEC day may be found here. And here are selected Forbes copies in chronological order based on soundbites and insight from the event. 

• ADNOC Boss Urges Energy Peers To Fully Embrace Power Of AI, November 4, 2024
• Donald Trump’s Presidency Will Likely Boost U.S. Oil Output In 2025, November 6, 2024
• Strait Of Hormuz: Why Iran Wont Harm Critical Oil Shipping Route, November 7, 2024
• British Energy Majors May Lean More On Oil And Gas To Boost Profits, November 8, 2024
• New U.K. Tax Rates Are Hammering North Sea Oil And Gas Drilling, November 12, 2024

That's a wrap for this year's ADIPEC. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Gaurav Sharma at ADIPEC 2024 studio in Abu Dhabi, UAE on November 4, 2024 © dmgevents /APCO Worldwide.