Tuesday, April 08, 2025
Oil shed $10/bbl or 14% week-on-week on Trump Tariffs
Wednesday, March 05, 2025
Crude prices in tariff war zone as OPEC+ wakes up
As global stock markets plunged, commodity prices took a knock, oil benchmarks slumped as well and then some more. That's because OPEC+ finally woke up to the reality of its production restraint propping up prices as well, as it continues to hemorrhage market share to non-OPEC producers.
On Monday, with its production already at a one-year high, the producers' group finally decided it had had enough and would start phasing out its 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) voluntary production cut from April. This would be done via monthly increases of 138,000 bpd until the cuts are fully reversed by Q4 2026.
For clarity, the eight OPEC+ countries - that previously announced these "additional voluntary adjustments" - include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. They were only intending to keep the cuts in place as an interim measure. But kept on rolling the cuts well beyond what they had originally proposed.
However, overnight they provided a downside surprise to the market when many were expecting another rolling over of the cuts. Before news of the OPEC+ decision arrived, crude prices were already trending lower with Brent and WTI front-month contracts down 3.97% and 3.31% respectively, on the prior week. The double whammy knocked the benchmarks further lower with Brent breaking the $70 per barrel resistance barrier intraday.
At 18:42 GMT on Wednesday, the Oilholic noted Brent down 2.55% or $1.81 to $69.12 per barrel, while the WTI was down 2.96% or $2.04 to $65.92 per barrel. All indications point to a bearish week at a time when macroeconomic scenarios ranging from uncertain Chinese demand to the threat of global trade wars point to lower crude prices.
While Trump's moves are often unpredictable, it must be acknowledged that sooner or later OPEC+ would unwind its production. And, so, it has happened! More OPEC+ as well as non-OPEC+ crude may be expected over the near-term tariffs or no tariffs.
Away from oil, but sticking with Trump, here are yours truly's thoughts in an interview with MarketWatch on Trump's plan to tap mineral wealth from Ukraine, and of course, at home and wherever else possible abroad.
That's all for now folks, more to follow over the course of the month. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Monday, January 20, 2025
"Drill Baby, Drill!" (Again)
As for the oil price itself, this blogger stands by what one told Reuters earlier during the day's trading session - the Trump administration will most likely go after Iran and Venezuela, with heightened sanctions on Russia already priced in oil market.
This will likely keep the Brent front-month futures contract around $80 per barrel. However, the direction of travel from there will be dictated by emerging Trump policies, non-OPEC production, international trade wars (or not) and China's economy.
That's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!Saturday, March 14, 2020
On Tankers, Travel Bans & Turbulence
Monday, January 20, 2020
Summing up the geopolitics heavy last 4 weeks!
As it transpired, skirmishes in Iraq between Iran-backed militia and US forces heightened Middle East tensions over Christmas. What then followed took the market by surprise. In the small hours of January 2, the New Year got its first geopolitical jolt, after a US airstrike killed Qasem Soleimani, an IranianGeneral of the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and commander of its Quds Force, a division primarily responsible for extraterritorial military and clandestine operations.
In the Oilholic's opinion, courtesy US President Donald Trump, it was the biggest targeted political killing in the region since that of another Iranian protégé - Lebanese Islamic Jihad Organization's founder and then Hezbollah's second-in-command ImadMughniyeh in 2008; a man widely thought to have masterminded the 1983 US embassy bombing in Beirut.
As speculators piled into the oil futures market with long calls, expecting the inevitable Iranian response, Tehran duly obliged via missile strikes on Iraqi bases housing US troops that it gave prior warning of and the attack caused no casualties. However, as has now been acknowledged, the Iranians mistakenly shot down a civilian airliner tragically killing 176 innocent people on board.
Away from all this, the Oilholic also had the pleasure of listing to Royal Dutch Shell's electric car driving Chief Financial Officer Jessica Uhl at a Reuters Breaking Views event in London on January 16. The oil giant's finance boss offered up some choice quotes on the evening, few of which are embedded here via yours truly's Twitter feed below (@The_Oilholic).
#Shell CFO Jessica Uhl tells @Breakingviews summit: Profound changes required for reducing #carbon footprint, climate risk of a global economy 80% reliant on fossil fuels, including altering aviation fuels complex, wholesale changes #bvpredicts #OOTT #oilandgas pic.twitter.com/g6yMPOIAWu— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) January 16, 2020
#Shell CFO Jessica Uhl tells @Breakingviews summit: "We are working to be a relevant energy company 10, 20, 30 years down the road,...have resiliency in our cashflow." #OOTT #oilandgas @Shell #bvpredicts— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) January 16, 2020
#Shell CFO Jessica Uhl tells @Breakingviews summit: Not just a headline coal to #NaturalGas switch, @shell has plenty of low #carbon solutions waiting to be deployed. Human ingenuity will rise to meet the #ClimateChange challenge." #OOTT #oilandgas #bvpredicts— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) January 16, 2020
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Friday, April 19, 2019
Being careful of what Hedge Funds wish for
Replicating a favourite pastime of the inimitable former Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi, on this sunny day in Vienna - I could think of nothing better than a brisk walk down the city's Ring Road from the Intercontinental to Rathaus, before the flight home : ) pic.twitter.com/xyEn9IQd9F— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) April 19, 2019
Monday, September 10, 2018
Just boring variation not a crude rally or slump
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
In Houston Town To Trump's Iranian Frowns
Friday, March 09, 2018
Frackers on the side of geopolitical angels?
Additionally, he noted that the UK oil & gas industry was going through "a renaissance; after remarkable, painful restructuring in the North Sea was behind it."
Thursday, April 20, 2017
Two Forbes posts on very different matters
Sunday, December 25, 2016
Merry Christmas & a few crude notes!
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Diesel powered XPT from Melbourne to Sydney
Flying would have taken one up in the air and down into Sydney in little over an hour, but the train journey took 11.5 hours zipping past mountain sides, streams, woodlands, lush green farming country, industrial heartlands, the odd wallaby, countless sheep and towns not normally on tourists’ itinerary accompanied by with changeable weather.
Leaving Melbourne’s Southern Cross Station at 8:30am, the 'XPT' or express train headed to Benalla, Wangaratta, Albury, Culcairn, Henty and The Rock stations in that order.
If you know your cricket, next came Wagga Wagga, birthplace of Aussie greats Geoff



Forever etched in one’s memory – that where were you moment when Donald Trump won the US presidency – well the Oilholic was in Campbelltown just prior to hitting Sydney central!
The Oilholic’s assessment – the journey might well have been between Victoria and New South Wales, but in a cool eclectic sort of way, a throwback to 1980s British Rail.

In 2016, the XPT yours truly got on at Melbourne saw the Paxman locomotive with four low-pressure turbochargers and two high-pressure turbochargers giving it 1,492 kW / 2,000 horsepower lug six clunky carriages (seven during peak times) between Melbourne and Sydney, with one being a sleeper car for those who can’t handle the arduous journey sitting up. Two trains go in each direction dialy.
There’s a pantry car too, serving hot meals, cold beer and plenty of sausage rolls. This blogger loved a throwback to the old days. Some, including Aussie mates, say it’s for the train buffs only or a dumb touristy move.

One leaves you with a view of the Sydney Opera House (Click on all images to enlarge); seeing it means one more item off the bucket list. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!