Showing posts with label AIM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AIM. Show all posts

Thursday, October 19, 2023

'Crude' chat with Afentra Plc CEO Paul McDade

Crude oil benchmarks have been bouncing up and down for over 10 days in the wake of geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Predictably, much of the market analysis community is obsessing over where the risk premium might go, and how to square it against the wider crude oil supply and demand dynamic. 

Here are some thoughts via Forbes on what may or may not move the risk premium needle, and it must be noted that crude benchmarks are still way short of the perma-bull pipedream level of $100 per barrel. 

As volatility bites, what do industry operators do to cut out the noise? The Oilholic recently turned to one industry stalwart for his thoughts on the near to medium-term direction of the crude market and approach to a volatile pricing environment - Paul McDade, CEO of West Africa focussed Afentra Plc (LON: AET), and former boss of Tullow Oil.

According to McDade there's no such thing as an optimum or ideal oil price. "I often get asked what is the right oil price assumption for my business, and my answer is wherever our carefully considered hedging strategy takes us. I place a lot of faith in hedging because we operate in a cyclical industry. 

"We see hedging [or shall I say our hedging program] not as a tool for market bets but rather as a form of business insurance, and it all depends on the payback period. If the payback period is a year, you are OK to assume a base of $80 per barrel. But if its five years you would be crazy not to be a little bit conservative, workout what does the downside looks like and be prudent."

More generally speaking, McDade is bullish on the oil price for 2024 and indeed the next five years. "However, there will always be market noise and volatility that's typically associated with our industry. So if you ask me, could oil slip down to $60 per barrel at some point in 2024? Yes that's likely, but the upside would ultimately go further." 

To read the Oilholic's full interview with McDade for Forbes, and learn more about Afentra's journey please click here. More on market developments to follow over the weekend, but that's all for now folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.
To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: Paul McDade, CEO of Afentra Plc (left) with Gaurav Sharma, September 2023.

Friday, March 22, 2013

By ‘George’! In shale we (Brits) trust?

Delivering his 2013 budget speech on March 20, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne told a boisterous bunch of British parliamentarians that "shale gas is part of the future and we will make it happen."
 
He added that the government will publish guidelines by June which would set out how local communities could benefit from “their” unconventional gas resources. The UK lifted a temporary moratorium on shale gas fracking in December 2012 after much procrastination.
 
At the time, it was announced that the government would establish a new Office for Unconventional Gas with an emphasis on shale gas and coal-bed methane and the role they could play in meeting the country's energy demand. If anyone doubted the UK government’s intent when it comes to shale prospection, this is your answer. Sadly, intent alone will not trigger a shale revolution.
 
The Oilholic has always maintained that a swift British replication, or for that matter a wider European replication, of a US fracking heaven is unlikely and not just because there isn’t a one size fits all model to employ.
 
The shale bonanza stateside is no geological fluke; rather it bottles down to a combination of geology, tenacity and inventiveness. Add to that a less dense population than the British Isles, a largely conducive legislative and environmental framework, and a far superior pipeline network and access equation.
 
Furthermore, as Chatham House fellow Prof. Paul Stevens pointed out last week, “The American shale revolution got where it is today through massive investment, commitment towards research and development and over two decades of perseverance. I don’t see that level of commitment here.” Neither does the Oilholic.
 
Agreeing with Stevens is Dr. Tim Fox, head of energy and environment at the UK Institution of Mechanical Engineers, who opined that it was important for government not to see shale gas as the “silver bullet many claim it is”.
 
“Shale gas is unlikely to impact greatly on energy prices in the UK and we must avoid becoming hostage to volatile gas markets by not being over-reliant on gas,” he added.
 
Well at least the Chancellor is trying to do something and you can’t beat a man down for that. Especially as that is not the only thing he’s trying on the energy front. Addressing the subject of decommissioning in the North Sea, Osborne said the government would enter into contracts with companies in the sector operating in the offshore region to provide "certainty" over tax relief measures.
 
The proposals are also designed to allow the tax effect of decommissioning costs to be sufficiently certain to allow companies to move to a post tax calculation in field security agreements. Andrew Lister, energy tax partner at KPMG, notes, "With hundreds of such agreements in the North Sea it will take many months to understand whether the proposals have had the desired result of freeing up capital and making late life assets more attractive for new investors."
 
"Nonetheless, the oil & gas industry in the North Sea – having endured the shock tax announced in the Budget two years ago – will welcome the announcements on decommissioning certainty, which should support extraction of the UK’s precious oil resources to the tune of billions. Certainty on tax relief for decommissioning costs will encourage companies to invest in the North Sea as the proposals should provide the assurance companies have been wanting on the availability of tax deductions," he added.
 
Osborne also revealed the two successful bidders for the government’s £1 billion support for Carbon Capture and Storage (CC&S) projects as – the Peterhead Project in Aberdeenshire and the White Rose Project in Yorkshire. Away from the direct fiscal measures, one particular move made by the Chancellor also has implications for the energy sector.
 
He pledged to abolish the stamp duty levied on small company shares traded on markets such as the London Stock Exchange's AiM, to end what he described as a "perceived bias" in the tax system "favouring debt financing over equity investment". You could hear the cheers in the City within minutes of the announcement.
 
The London Stock Exchange, for its part, described the move as a “bold and decisive growth-orientated policy…” to which the Oilholic would add, “a policy that would improve the take-up of shares in small independent oil & gas upstarts who often list on the AiM.”
 
Finally, moving away from the UK budget, but sticking with Parliament, the Oilholic recently had the pleasure of meeting and interviewing Margaret Hodge MP, chair of the UK public accounts committee, for CFO World (for the full interview click here). This veteran parliamentarian has taken upon herself and her committee to make the issue of corporate tax avoidance a mainstream subject in the UK.
 
Ever since it emerged last year that the likes of Starbucks, Amazon and many others were employing aggressive tax avoidance schemes to mitigate their British tax exposure, Hodge has been on the case. They quipped "we’re not doing anything illegal", she famously quipped back, "we’re not accusing you of being illegal; we’re accusing you of being immoral!"
 
End result, we’ve got everyone from the OECD to the G8 discussing corporate tax avoidance. And oh – Starbucks are 'voluntarily' paying more tax in the UK too! That’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’! 
 
To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
 
© Gaurav Sharma 2013. Photo 1: Big Ben and the Houses of Parliament, London, UK © Gaurav Sharma. Photo 2: Margaret Hodge MP, chair of the UK public accounts committee (left) with the Oilholic (right) © Gaurav Sharma.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Crude M&A activity, Majors' profits & more

As we approach the end of the year, the Oilholic is convinced that 2011 will see M&A activity in the oil & gas sector returning to, or perhaps even exceeding pre-crisis deal valuation levels. Research for Infrastructure Journal by this blogger suggests that while the year still has a little over two months left the deal valuation figure for acquisition of oil & gas infrastructure assets, using September 30th as a cut-off date, is well above the total valuation for 2008, the year that the global credit squeeze meaningfully constricted capital flows.

In fact, back in 2008, Infrastructure Journal noted 23 oil & gas M&A corporate finance transactions valued at US$19.33 billion. Deal valuation then declined to US$18.14 billion and US$16.70 billion in 2009 and 2010 while the number of transactions first fell to 19 and then rose to 32. In fact 2009 would have been a wretched year in relative terms, had it not been for a US$6.3 billion transaction concerning the acquisition of Stogit & Italgas. Big ticket deals were largely absent in 2010 and while the number of transactions rose, valuation declined. IJ analysts have so far noted 21 transactions and a deal valuation to the tune of US$27.11 billion (and counting) in 2011. (Click on graph to enlarge © Infrastructure Journal)

Michael Byrd, Houston-based partner at Baker & McKenzie feels that conditions for making an oil & gas asset acquisition are quite conducive, more so for upstream assets. “Opportunities exist in all three – Downstream, Midstream and Upstream projects, but in case of the latter, projects in remote offshore and onshore basins have become more economical due to new technologies and more favourable oil prices (long-term),” he said in recent webinar which makes for compelling listening, caveats and all, if asset acquisition is on your mind. You could possibly download a recording here.

Alternatively, Baker & McKenzie have another one of these webinars coming-up on November 16 under their Global Energy Webinar Series. This one would discuss the full cycle of tax planning and compliance issues around permanent establishments for major energy and power projects.

Moving away from IJ’s figures and Baker & McKenzie webinars, financial advisers Ernst & Young’s research on a related note suggests that increases in M&A of London-based AiM-listed oil & gas firms are to be expected following substantial falls in their market valuation.

The firm’s quarterly index shows the value of AiM-listed oil and gas companies fell 26% in the three months to September. The index has been in decline since the start of 2011. Additionally, fundraising by AiM-listed oil and gas companies totalled £168.7 million during the third quarter - a fall of 48% on the same quarter last year.

Jon Clark, oil & gas partner at Ernst & Young, said, "Those companies with weaker balance sheets and particularly those with development projects will be looking towards larger, better capitalised acquirers. The slowdown in the global economic recovery and the market turbulence created by issues including the US credit downgrade and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis will continue to turn investors off riskier assets. This doesn't bode well for the fourth quarter."

All-in-all, the remainder of 2011 would be a good time to swoop for an asset or even an entire mid-cap company. Concurrently, the oil majors are queuing up to announce decent profits. The third quarter’s current cost of supply net income at Shell doubled to US$7.2 billion, compared with US$3.5 billion during the same period a year ago. ExxonMobil saw its quarterly profits rise by 41% to US$10.3 billion.

Earlier in the week, BP said its operations were “regaining momentum” and that it had “turned a corner” reporting third quarter profits of US$5.14 billion, a near tripling of the US$1.85 billion replacement cost profit it made in the same period a year ago. The firm is also increasing its asset selling programme from US$30 billion to US$45 billion.

Meanwhile, the British Energy and Climate Change Select Committee of MPs has criticised the UK Treasury's move earlier this year to increase a levy on the oil & gas industry calling it an "opportunistic raid". On the back of recent good news from the North Sea – they said in a report that the way in which the £2 billion hike was announced may have undermined investor confidence.

The report notes: "If the (UK) government is serious about maximising production from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), it needs to consider the long-term impact of changes to the tax regime on investment. The evidence on the impact of 2006 increase in the supplementary tax charge on oil and gas production in the North Sea is inconclusive, but there is a clear need to sustain investor confidence by avoiding surprises, such as the further increase announced in the 2011 Budget. It is not sensible to make opportunistic raids on UKCS producers." Powerful stuff – well delivered!

Finally, in Thursday intraday trading the crude oil price registered a strong rebound of over 2%, accompanied by a rally in the equity markets following the positive vibes from the European leaders’ summit overnight where an agreement to raise the European rescue fund to €1 trillion was finally reached.

Sucden Financial research expects further gains in crude oil prices, as the market seems relieved after the European Summit. The stronger euro provides further support, while most commodity prices enjoying a strong rally. WTI crude oil has further upside potential toward US$95/$96 per barrel, while Brent oil might find modest resistance near the US$115 per barrel area, Sucden analysts note further.

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Graph: Corporate Finance infrastructure M&A deals 2008-2011 (year to date) © Infrastructure Journal, October 10, 2011. Photo: Shell Gas Station © Royal Dutch Shell