OPEC quota where it was, no figures needed

OPEC decided to roll over its 'previous quota' published at 30 million barrels per day, but declined to put a figure in its official communique issued at the conclusion of its 168th ministers' meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Despite repeated questioning on the quota ceiling, OPEC Secretary General Adalla Salem El-Badri said Indonesia's re-entry into the OPEC fold, additional Iranian barrels entering the market and concerns over economic growth meant putting forward a quota figure needed further consideration.

"OPEC will wait and see how the market develops" over the next six months and saw no need to alter the current production level during a period of market adjustment, he added, having been asked to stay on as "acting" Secretary General until July 2016. 

In wake of the OPEC announcement, at 1656 GMT, WTI was trading at $40.47 per barrel, down 61 cents or 1.48%, while Brent came in at $43.52, down 32 cents or 0.73%. Industry surveys suggest OPEC's production for November was at 32.1m bpd, well in excess of stated levels. More shortly! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2015. Photo: OPEC logo © Gaurav Sharma.

There's something about Mr El-Badri

The predictable materialised yet again as OPEC held its quota at 30 million barrels per day following the conclusion of its 165th meeting of ministers. To be honest that's not what the Oilholic hit town for; quota situation was a done deal in most eyes!

In fact this blogger was wondering if we'll have some movement on the appointment of a new secretary general. Arriving in the Austrian capital last night, one heard whispers that Nigeria's petroleum minister Diezani Kogbeni Alison-Madueke was lobbying really hard for the post. Politics and merits aside, such an appointment – should it have happened – would have seen a welcome female Secretary General at the 12 member oil exporters' club.

As such, it turned out to be hot air, at least for this meeting. Instead, the 74 year-old Libyan industry veteran and current Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri saw his term extended yet again. The latest extension takes him through to June 30, 2015 having been first elevated to the post on January 1, 2007. That's coming up to some record for holding the post.

In fact, by this blogger's calculation, the latest extension makes him the longest serving OPEC Secretary General of all time. The reason for the appointment extension is the same as it was at the last meeting, and the one before and so it goes. There is simply no compromise candidate that the two major camps, led by the Saudis and the Iranians can agree on. She might be lobbying hard for the post, but Alison-Madueke's quip to a newswire journalist about the Secretary General being "appointed by consensus" rings true.

And when there is no consensus, you ring for Mr El-Badri. That's what OPEC has done time and again for this powerful post of late. In more, ways than one, El-Badri is a real trooper and the ultimate compromise candidate. He exudes confidence, has a sense of humour, can tackle or swat down often awkward questions hurled at him by scribes, makes the best of an often bad situation and gets along with most.

The Oilholic remembers from his last outing to OPEC HQ when El-Badri was given an ironic round of applause by journalists to bid him farewell, full well in the knowledge that yet again OPEC had failed to name a successor. However, he maintained his sense of humour and went through the entire press conference without as much as a twitch.

Perhaps in appointing him back in 2007, OPEC raised the bar very high. Prior to his arrival at OPEC, the University of Florida educated El-Badri served as Libya's minister for oil and electricity. This was followed by several ministerial stints including one as deputy prime minister from 2002 to 2004.

After assuming the Secretary General's position, El-Badri handled some real challenges and a term that began with oil price first spiking above US$140 per barrel and then dipping below $40, followed by the worst financial crisis in modern history. That the current Secretary General has acquitted himself with distinction is beyond doubt, but time has come for him to move on.

In its repeated failure to name a successor, OPEC isn't doing itself any good. Meanwhile, the decision to reappoint El-Badri was unanimous. To give the last word to the man himself: "My reappointment as OPEC Secretary General was down to the wisdom of ministers and I have no further comment to make."

And there you have it. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2014. Photo: OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri © Gaurav Sharma, June 2014.

As expected OPEC quota stays at 30 mbpd!

As widely expected and in line with market expectations, the 163rd OPEC meeting of ministers ended with the 12 members of the oil exporting club keeping their official collective production quota right where it was – at 30 million barrels per day (bpd).

 

OPEC noted that the “relative steadiness” of crude oil prices during 2013 (to-date) was an indication that the market was adequately supplied, with “the periodic price fluctuations being a reflection of geopolitical tensions.”

 

However, the cartel felt that whilst world economic growth was projected to reach 3.2% in 2013, up from 3% in 2012, downside risks to the global economy, especially in the OECD region, remain unchecked.

 

OPEC said that world oil demand is expected to rise from 88.9 million bpd in 2012 to 89.7 million bpd in 2013, driven “almost entirely” by the non-OECD regions. It also projected non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.0 million bpd.

 

OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said, “Taking these developments into account, the second half of the year could see a further easing in fundamentals, despite seasonally-higher demand. In light of the foregoing, we have in decided that member countries should adhere to the existing production ceiling of 30 million bpd.”

 

El-Badri was not prepared to discuss the individual members’ quotas, a figure which OPEC no longer releases for publication. The Secretary General also revealed that no agreement was reached over the election of his successor with the same three candidates – viz the two protagonists Majid Munif (Saudi Arabia) and Gholam-Hussein Nozari (Iran) with compromise candidate Thamir Ghadban (an Iraqi official) – being in the frame.

 

“The candidates remain the same, but if a fresh name comes up then we will examine his/her credentials in the usual way,” the Secretary General said. In his response to the debate about shale’s impact on OPEC members’ fortunes and a possible rise in their spare capacity, El-Badri said the impact of unconventional oil production remains uncertain and if it resulted in a rise in OPEC’s spare capacity then there was no reason to be alarmed.

 

“I am in the business of conventional. The way I see it is that if it is a causative factor in a rise in OPEC’s spare capacity then I say why not? What’s the harm? The International Energy Agency (IEA) cannot have it both ways. Before the shale debate began, the agency expressed alarm at the perceived lack of OPEC’s spare capacity. Now when there is a perception that our spare capacity would rise, they again see it as a problem,” he added.

 

El-Badri said OPEC members would, if required, take steps to ensure market balance and reasonable price levels for producers and consumers, and respond to developments that might place oil market stability in jeopardy. OPEC said its next meeting will convene in Vienna, Austria, on Dec 4, 2013. That’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2013. OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri speaks at the conclusion of the 163rd OPEC meeting of ministers © Gaurav Sharma, May 31, 2013.