On OPEC's higher output, no peak demand & no access

OPEC's two-day biennial 9th International Seminar came to a conclusion on Thursday after its key voices roundly declared the world simply needed more oil, there was no prospect of peak demand any time soon and denied half the world's scribes an opportunity to forensically question that assertion. 

More on the latter point later, but as The Oilholic noted in an overnight Forbes missive, the Saudi energy minister and de facto OPEC leader Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned against hurting global economic growth and people's "affordability" in the name of energy transition, multiple attendees confirmed to the Oilholic. 

The minister also said Wednesday that as renewable energy sources continue to grow, hydrocarbons will remain “indispensable” in supporting the economic progress of developing countries, and ensuring mission critical hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, aviation and haulage keep going.

And on Thursday - the second and final day of the OPEC Seminar - OPEC published its World Oil Outlook report claiming that crude demand will average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. The producers' group expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and then rise to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and as high as 123 million bpd by 2050. To be read as - there's not going to be a peak demand scenario any time soon.

Now speaking of being reliant on third parties and quotes of seminar attendees to bring you these snippets dear readers, you may be wondering what's afoot. Well, for the first time since September 2004, OPEC turned down the Oilholic's request to attend, write op-eds for Forbes and blogs from the seminar.

Yours truly wasn't alone. It also withheld access to a number of global newswires, WSJ and FT, among many others. And for good measure, the event management company was instructed to tell all "non-partner media" journalists that the venue was full to capacity in case they turned up at the registration desk unannounced. 

There's not much one can do about this, but it didn't stop The Oilholic from flagging the goings-on at the event, and meeting and greeting familiar friends and faces from our 'crude' world. 

Still not sure what triggered but if it has something to do with objective reporting and searching questions - that ain't getting compromised folks, not now, not ever!

Non-access also meant that market commentary had to be done offsite, including with Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV. Yours truly discussed Brent crude touching $70 per barrel intraday on Wednesday with Senior Business News Anchor Nour Amache, and why near-term market sentiment was being impacted by lower inventories and anticipated higher summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere.

Furthermore, OPEC may have raised its output, but the hikes have already largely been factored in by traders. So, the move is currently not serving as a drag on prices. However, it would be interesting to note what happens when summer demand tails off, and the fourth quarter approaches with more OPEC+ barrels and hedged US / non-OPEC crude on the market. 

That will likely create a surplus, especially for light sweet crude, thereby potentially driving prices lower. Who knows, it may even convince US President Donald Trump to perhaps top up his country's strategic reserves. It seems we're heading for an interesting second half of the year. 

Well that's all from Vienna folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo I: Gaurav Sharma, energy analyst outside OPEC International Seminar venue at Hofburg Palace in Vienna, Austria on July 9, 2025 © Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma offers oil market commentary on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025. © Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025.

Vienna bound ahead of OPEC seminar

After the latest OPEC meeting follows the producers' group's seminar - its invitation to the great and the good of the energy world held once every two years in Vienna. 

As the Oilholic heads out there for a business trip, while sitting and musing at London's Heathrow airport before the flight, one cannot but help notice that oil benchmarks are on the up. 

That's despite OPEC+'s decision to up production by another half a million plus barrels. The group has effectively unwound nearly 90% of the so-called "voluntary" cuts it brought in back in 2022. Conventional market wisdom would suggest that oil futures would head lower on the development but they haven't. 

That's down to three key reasons. They include: (1) an expectation that the summer driving season in Northern Hemisphere in general, and the US in particular, would absorb the additional barrels, (2) an uptick in attacks on cargoes in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels providing an element of risk, and (3) a belief that quota busting within OPEC+ ranks means many of the additional barrels are not all that additional at all. 

Regardless of where we head to in the very near-term, there is likely to be a surplus and relatively weaker prices as the end of the year approaches. It sets up an interesting second half of the trading year, one, that as things stand, the market bears are likely to win bar another major geopolitical flare-up or a macroeconomic event. 

Well that's all for now folks. More musing from Vienna soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, June 2025.

Do sub $60 oil prices beckon in H2 2025?

The second half of the current crude oil trading year was ushered in by a larger-than-expected output hike by OPEC+ over the weekend, just ahead of the first week's trades in Asia. The market was largely pricing in a 411,000 bpd hike like the previous month, but got a whopping 548,000 bpd uptick instead. 

The latest addition effectively unwinds nearly 90% of the "voluntary" OPEC+ cuts in place since 2022. Here is the Oilholic's take on it via a column for Forbes. Unmistakably, this is a very bearish development. But it is also a statement of intent that OPEC is more than willing to take the fight to non-OPEC producers in a bid for a higher market share. 

Of course, non-OPEC production - especially that of the US - continues to go from strength-to-strength, at least for now, until production hedges unwind in the next 12 to 18 months. Until then it might well be a buyers' market with likely lower, even sub $60 per barrel Brent prices in a glut-ridden market. 

And speaking of the US, here is yours truly's latest Energy Connects column on how that record high US production has effectively reset the global energy market's risk premiums, as recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated.   

The said events, i.e. the Israel-Iran conflict and the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities by the US, were the subject of The Oilholic's most recent appearance on TRT World's Round Table programme. Escalating tensions brought home long-held market anxieties - about energy cargoes in the Strait being disrupted as well as higher risk premiums - to the fore once again. 

Together with fellow guests on the programme, yours truly discussed why the closure of the Strait would be an act of self-harm for Iran, why Tehran simply won't (and didn't) do it, and ultimately why oil prices failed to hold on to the gains following a cessation of hostilities, courtesy of a well-supplied market and lacklustre demand growth. 

Here's an upload of the broadcast via TRT World's YouTube stream. Have a listen in if interested. Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on TRTWorld's Round Table programme in June 2025 © TRT World, 2025.

Oil market fundamentals return with aplomb

The oil futures slide began even before Iran's muted response to the US bombing of its nuclear sites had ended on Monday. And the benchmarks tanked further still once a ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect in the following session. 

That's because oil market fundamentals took hold the moment de-risking started, evaporating the so-called risk premium double quick. 

Prior to this week's declines, oil futures had risen 20% month-over-month. Those price gains have now almost entirely been lost. And so much so for the outlandish claims that Iran may shut the Strait of Hormuz, which was never going to happen as yours truly noted in a column for Forbes. 

Since the start of hostilities on June 13, the Oilholic has always maintained that if there was a swift end to the conflict - as has been the case - price will fall rapidly again. That's because the market remains well supplied with plenty of non-Middle Eastern, non-OPEC crude from Brazil, Canada, Guyana, Norway, and indeed - the US - still the world's number 1 producer of oil. 

If you believe global oil demand growth for 2025 to be in the region that's just a smidge north or south of 1 million barrels per day, that can be serviced by growth in non-OPEC production alone. And OPEC+ led by the Saudis and Russians is also pumping more in a fight for market share. 

It all points to a market surplus come the end of 2025, especially for light sweet crude. That itself points to oil prices heading lower, perhaps even below $60! Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Crudely heading down uncharted 'dire straits'?

On Saturday night the Israel-Iran conflict, and its domino effect on the world's energy markets, took another twist after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. 

The Americans dropped 14 “bunker buster” bombs against three nuclear facilities in Iran - Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. The move came just over a week on from Israel's own campaign of attacks on Iran's nuclear and military targets began. Inevitably, Iran responded with retaliatory missile strikes of its own on Israel. 

But the latest escalation by the US takes the oil market into uncharted waters (or straits shall we say). Early on in Israel's campaign, many assumed Iran's oil and gas infrastructure would not be attacked. However, that myth was shattered after Israel attacked Shahran Oil Terminal in Tehran, and two natural gas fields that Iran shares with Qatar. 

It hinted at the possibility that the Israelis were in no mood to compromise. Thereafter, oil futures capped the $75 mark, and lurked some 20% above last month's levels using Brent as a benchmark. 

Unsurprisingly, old market chatter that Iran would somehow close or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz has resurfaced, as yours truly discussed in an interview with Germany's ARD Radio 1 on Tuesday while out in the Middle East. 

The Oilholic also discussed the direction of the market with Turkiye's Anadolu News Agency noting that if the crisis persists and / or worsens, crude price points will have to recalibrate to a new normal around $80 per barrel Brent prices. However, if tensions or the conflict are quickly diffused, we could see a drop to $70 or below, as and when more normalized market fundamentals kick in once again.

The Oilholic also subsequently said in a BBC interview on Friday that the very fact we happen to be discussing oil breaching a $80 ceiling and not a $100 one is because the market remains well supplied ahead of the US summer driving season. 

It's also a perception helped in no small part by the Saudis via OPEC+ and a decision by the producers' group to raise production for three successive months. 

It's why the market has priced in a heightened level of near-term hostilities between Israel and Iran in as balanced a way as possible, without succumbing to unfounded conjecture or worse still an actual push toward $100 driven by paper bulls - especially now that chatter about Tehran blockading the Strait of Hormuz is all the rage again. 

So, here's yours truly's take via Forbes on why its something the Iranians have threatened to do since the 1980s, but have in actual fact never done or attempted even once, and remains a highly unlikely prospect despite any chatter of any sort. 

However, Iran-backed Houthi Rebels could make life difficult for energy shipping by resuming their attacks in the other strait - i.e. the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. 

Of course, the Israel-Iran story still has some way to go. But the presence of a lot of non-OPEC oil is keeping somewhat of a lid on things. It's why in the small hours of the morning in Europe, and early morning trading in Asia on Monday, gains in the wake of the attack still remain muted at sub-$80 Brent crude prices. (02:00am BST)

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. Photo II: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on BBC News channel. © BBC, June 2025. 

Media missives from Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit

With the inaugural Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit drawing to a close on June 18, the Oilholic enjoyed an engaging week out in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

 

An action-packed two days included insightful fireside chats, panel discussions, and wider engagements on international collaboration in the infrastructure space. 

All of The Oilholic's blog entries for Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit may be found here. 

Yours truly also provided insights for Forbes from the event as detailed below:

• Embed Sustainability And Resilience Into Infrastructure, Experts Say, June 18, 2025
• Where Do Sustainability And Affordability Sit In The Pursuit Of Smart Cities?, June 20, 2025

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit plenary stage © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025.

Striving for smart, sustainable cities & urban excellence

On Wednesday, the second and final day of the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, over 4,000 attendees visited the exhibition and conference. 

They included royalty as the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan joined the crowds. He met exhibitors, officials and visitors alike during his visit. 

The Crown Prince also stressed on the vital importance of leveraging advanced technologies in urban planning to ensure the long-term sustainability of infrastructure that meets the aspirations of current and future generations and enhances societal wellbeing, by investing in integrated, future-ready infrastructure, including facilities powered by artificial intelligence and other smart solutions. 

Of course, the pursuit of urban excellence is a moving target with diverse global contexts. Abu Dhabi’s ambition to redefine urban living through world-class infrastructure and quality of life enhancements finds resonance in the transformative strategies of pioneering global cities.

That was the subject matter of the second panel at the summit moderated by The Oilholic at ADIS. The panelists included Daniel Liu, Executive Director of MORROW Intelligence, Emre Arolat, Founding Partner and Principal at Emre Arolat Architecture, Greg Bargull, Executive Director of Development at Modon and Asma Aljassmi, Executive Director of Projects Control and Operations at Aldar Projects. 

We discussed how successful urban centers worldwide are redefining city planning through context-specific innovations that balance economic growth with human-centric design. 

From Singapore’s holistic balance of economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social inclusivity to Chongqing’s technology and sustainability integration, Copenhagen’s Nordhavn district’s 5-Minute City model, and Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City balancing sustainability, heritage and innovation - the world’s most innovative cities promote a strong sense of place and identity for their residents and community said the panelists.

They also offered pragmatic insights on the challenges and opportunities along the route toward urban excellence, and learning as much from the mistakes of others as their successes, whilst keeping sustainability and energy efficiency almost always in sharp focus. 

And on that note, it's a wrap from the inaugural ADIS folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (right) visits the exhibition at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit © Abu Dhabi Media Office, June 2025. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma (left) moderates a panel at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit. © ADIS, June 2025.

Discussing collaboration on infrastructural resilience

Formal proceedings got underway at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit on Tuesday. The inaugural edition of the event combined a conference programme and exhibition featuring keynotes, panels and roundtables spread over two days.

Maysarah Mahmoud Salim Eid, Director General of Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Centre (ADPIC) - the mandated agency that manages government capital projects in the Emirate, alongside overseeing infrastructure project implementation and delivery - kicked things off with a keynote emphasising the need for strategic investment in infrastructure, and flagging the drive Abu Dhabi itself has embarked upon with the Emirate’s AED 200 billion (£41 billion, $54 billion) infrastructure pipeline, and 600-plus projects. 

What that level of investment and ambition has done is put Abu Dhabi prominently on the map for global infrastructure collaboration. It also reflects a strategic alignment of regional priorities and international best practices. 

As the Emirate accelerates the adoption of its Economic Vision 2030, cross-sector partnerships will be critical for fostering inclusive growth and address complex urban challenges including sustainable housing and smart mobility. 

Much of this came into sharp focus as the day progressed with plenty of chatter on how the world's major urban centres were approaching the challenge of infrastructural resilience, including via deploying public private partnerships (PPPs) to mixed degrees of success. 

Here's the Oilholic's report for Forbes from the event on the subject. 

For its part, Abu Dhabi’s infrastructure strategy centers on securing supply chains, enhancing climate resilience, establishing conformity standards and quality control, and fortifying digital connectivity, which it appears to be doing perhaps way better than most. 

Yours truly also partook in the first day's proceedings and moderated a session on global collaboration to bring about transformative infrastructural development. 

The panelists included Carlos Wakim, CEO of Bloom Holding, Mounir Haidar, Managing Partner of LEAD Development, Fuat Kasimcan, Secretary General of Turkish Contractors Association, and Abdulaziz Alobaidli, Chief Operating Officer of Masdar. Over the course of an insightful discussion, we discussed how Abu Dhabi was offering several case studies for the world's major cities to take their cue from, and the role, advantages and pitfalls of PPPs in the region, and beyond. 

We also discussed what role technology, especially AI, can play in solutions for smart cities, alongside the criticality of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in multiple geographies to foster collaboration, as well as the need for grid resilience to ensure the power demands of burgeoning urban centres are serviced without outages. All-in-all, a great discussion. 

Once the first day's proceedings had concluded, invited delegates headed over the event's Gala Dinner in the evening, attended by distinguished guests from around the world who were welcomed to the summit, the dinner and indeed to Abu Dhabi once again by ADPIC Director General Maysarah Mahmoud Salim Eid.

The ADPIC DG also commended the strength of the dialogues at the event and the global mix of the attendees on the first day before the evening's entertainment and festivities commenced. 

Well that's all for the moment folks ahead of a content packed second day at ADIS! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit signage © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. Photo II & III: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma moderates a panel at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit. © ADIS, June 2025. Photo IV: Maysarah Mahmoud Salim Eid, Director General of Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Centre address ADIS gala dinner attendees © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025.

Getting going at Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit

The Oilholic is in Abu Dhabi, UAE for the inaugural Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit. It is being hosted by Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Centre (ADPIC), which manages government capital projects in the Emirate, alongside overseeing infrastructure project implementation and delivery. 

The summit - being held from June 17 to 18 at the city's Energy Centre - is expected to draw in over 2,000 attendees from nearly 100 countries, 25 major exhibitors and over 70 global speakers (present company included). The theme for this year's event is "Future cities: Rethinking infrastructure for better lifestyles." 

In line with that theme, over the next two days yours truly will take part in the programme that includes leading voices from the world of renewable energy, real estate development and design, aviation, architecture and urban planning, alongside proponents of AI and emerging technologies. 

The whole idea is to bring together government entities, semi-government bodies, developers, investors, contractors, technology providers, academia, and global associations, in order to facilitate what the organisers describe as meaningful collaboration across the entire infrastructure ecosystem.

Looking forward to an exciting and insightful few days in Abu Dhabi. More musings to follow soon folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. 

A crude view from Abu Dhabi as oil price spike cools

As the Oilholic hopped across from Doha to Abu Dhabi on Monday it became evident that a further (read dramatic) spike in oil prices was not going to materialize.

It was helped in no small part by a report in the Wall Street Journal claiming that the Iranians - battered by precision Israeli bombing that began on Friday - were keen to get back to the negotiating table to end hostilities and resume discussions over their nuclear program. 

It meant the Brent futures rally slowed quite significantly with the global proxy benchmark sliding below $75 per barrel instead of heading toward $80-levels. The report was met with some scepticism but it needn't have been. 

In fact, informed sources both in Qatar as well as the UAE tell yours truly that Tehran is asking its Arab intermediaries to broker a cooling down of the daily barrage of attacks with much more fervor than the story suggests, provided the US doesn't join Israel in its campaign against Iran.  

Traders took the cue from that, much to the consternation of market bulls. That's because were market sentiment to switch from "Israel is now attacking Iran's oil facilities" back to the negotiating table, normal market fundamentals would start applying, and that would mean even $70 levels would not be worth holding on to. 

More musings to follow soon folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: A view of Abu Dhabi from Qatar Airways QR 1044 © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. 

State of play ahead of heading out to the Middle East

Doubtless you couldn't have escaped an escalation of tensions in the Middle East after Israel attacked Iranian nuclear and military sites early on Friday, and Tehran inevitably responded. 

The two have sparred before including last year. But as yours truly contemplates this - over a pre-departure negroni at a Heathrow Airport lounge ahead of a trip out to the region whilst waiting for BA 123 to Doha, followed by Abu Dhabi for a speaking engagement - something feels different this time around. 

For starters, last time Israel and Iran sparred, the former left the latter's oil and gas infrastructure intact. But that doesn't appear to be the case this time around. Over the last 24 hours, Israel has attacked the Shahran oil depot in Tehran. It has also attacked two of Iran’s gas fields, including Phase 14 of South Pars so far.

This clearly indicates that the Israelis no longer see Iran's energy infrastructure as off limits. Worse may (or may not) yet follow as the Oilholic said in a BBC interview on Friday. 

And here's more detail on some of the potential worst case scenarios for the oil markets in your's truly's latest Forbes missive, including, yes, the not-so-likely-at-all possibility of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz in a fit of consternation. 

But there will be wider near-to-medium-term implications for the oil market and you can fully expect oil futures to post a(nother) near-term spike next week, especially given Israel's attacks on the Iran's oil and gas sites. 

It is just as well that there is plenty of shall we say non-OPEC, non-Middle Eastern oil out in the market as the Oilholic said in an Al Jazeera interview prior to all hell breaking loose. 

Consumers could well have been looking forward to an easing in prices at the pump were it not for this development. 

Where it goes from here is anybody's guess - but if this calms down, it won't take long for market fundamentals to return and drag oil prices lower! The Oilholic knows it feels a million miles away from there right now, but things can change in an instant because that's the nature of the cyclical volatility of the oil market. 

In the interim, as the old British saying, or shall we say the old adage, goes - Keep calm and carry on! More musings to follow soon folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: A delicious negroni at British Airways First Lounge, London Heathrow Airport © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. Photo II: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on BBC World Service © BBC News, June 2025. Photo III: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Al Jazeera English © Al Jazeera, June 2025. 

Speaking at Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be speaking and moderating panels at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit. The theme for the event - due to be held in Abu Dhabi, UAE from June 17 to 18, 2025 - is "Future cities: Rethinking infrastructure for better lifestyles." Explore the event's wide-ranging agenda here. 

ADIS' inaugural edition combines a conference and exhibition featuring keynotes, panels, and round tables with global senior leaders from the infrastructure and construction sector.

Topics will emphasise advancing construction and infrastructure innovations, driving technological excellence, facilitating partnerships, and redefining urban landscapes to shape the cities of the future sustainably. For more information on yours truly's panels click here, and to register to attend click here. 

The Oilholic is really looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Abu Dhabi. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Speaker profile of Gaurav Sharma for Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit © ADIS, June 2025. 

Bringing 'superintelligence' to the energy industry

The Oilholic was delighted to join the demo day of UK-based energy AI firm Applied Computing in London on Tuesday. 

The firm recently announced a £9 million seed funding round - largest ever for a British AI company's at seed stage - to bring what it describes as "superintelligence" to the energy industry. 

Applied Computing’s flagship product - Orbital - has been built using multi-foundation AI powered by a new class of models built to optimise the physical world. The company's CEO and co-founder Callum Adamson said this was not just language models his team was talking about but also time series, physics and chemical engineering models delivering explainable AI that can be trusted in real-world applications.

Applied Computing claims Orbital utilises "100% of available data from downstream energy facilities" – compared to 8% captured by traditional methods – and is outperforming previously benchmarked state-of-the-art software by 90% in key metrics.

The company offered the attendees, present company included, a demo of Orbital in action. It appears to be going places in its bid to bring AI to the oil and gas sector, which, as Adamson noted, is the most "under-optimised industry on earth." 

Applied Computing sees opportunities across the sector's value chain from refining and petrochemicals to upstream and LNG, although its current focus is on downstream. 

The £9 million seed round has been followed up by strategic hires from Shell, Palantir, BP Launchpad and Imperial College. Applied Computing has doubled in size since January and is now preparing for a Series A in the second half of the year. 

Ahead of the demo, The Oilholic - as announced to the readers of this blog earlier this month - also moderated an industry panel discussion titled - Redesigning Energy: New Technologies Powering the Transition. 

The panel explored the critical role of technologies such as the ones Applied Computing and its peers are marketing, as well as their potential to help reshape the future of energy, industry, and sustainability.

The all star cast of speakers included leading voices from across the world of energy, venture capital, and AI innovation to explore the insights, strategies, and technologies reshaping the energy landscape. 

They included Kari Jordan, Founder of Leaps and Bounds, Ulrika Wising, Senior Energy Executive (a former Centrica, Shell & Macquarie executive), Eliza Eddison, Vice President of Operations at Applied Computing, and Fred Destin, Founder of Stride.VC, all of whom provided many invaluable insights that made for a riveting hour-long session. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: CEO and co-founder of Applied Computing Callum Adamson speaks at the demo of the company's Orbital AI. © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. Photo II (left to right): Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, with Kari Jordan, Founder of Leaps and Bounds, Ulrika Wising, Senior Energy Executive (Former Centrica, Shell & Macquarie executive), Eliza Eddison, Vice President of Operations at Applied Computing, and Fred Destin, Founder of Stride.VC © Westen Macintosh / Applied Computing, June 2025. 

OPEC+, uptick in crude prices & more

For crude traders, the month of June began exactly the way May did - with another 411,000 bpd production hike by OPEC+. 

The move was almost entirely priced in by the global market. And if anything else, prices actually rose a bit to clawback the ground lost in the wake of the Trump Tariffs kerfuffle in April. 

Overall, the crude price - using Brent as a benchmark - is still down by double digits on last year. 

Of course, there are different opinions out there in the market, but respectfully the Oilholic sees little reason to be overtly bullish on oil prices as things stand. 

Here's yours truly's Forbes post on OPEC's move and its wider implications with another hike - most likely - coming in for August from the producers' group. 

All things considered, with the hedges of US shale players not rolling off for another six months in many cases (and as high as 18 months in the case of some), this blogger expects the market in 2025 to be in surplus. 

Furthermore, as The Oilholic noted in an interview with Asharq Bloomberg Business News last week, this isn't just about OPEC+ versus US shale production. 

The market can (and will continue to) expect additional barrels from Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Norway too. 

On balance, we're looking at an oil market surplus in 2025, especially for light sweet crude. 

This then does beg the age-old question (again) - what about investment in oil and gas in the current market and macroeconomic climate? We're in retreat from the Covid-years of frowning upon oil and gas investments to somewhat of a panic on the need for it to ensure security of supply in the energy transition era.

According to the IEF, around $740 billion a year is needed in investments to the end of the current decade assuming a global demand figure north of 100 million bpd. But in 2024, we didn't even cap $600 billion worth of oil and gas investments. So is the industry investing enough? It's what yours truly asked in his latest Energy Connects column (available here). 

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. Photo II: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Bloomberg Business News channel. © Asharq Bloomberg Business News, June 2025. 

Moderating panel at Applied Computing's Orbital demo

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be joining Applied Computing's Demo Day proceedings on June 10, 2025 at IET London Savoy Place in London, UK. The Oilholic will also be moderating the panel discussion titled - Redesigning Energy: New Technologies Powering the Transition - where we'll explore the critical role of technologies and their potential to help reshape the future of energy, industry, and sustainability.

The session will bring together leading voices from across the world of energy, venture capital, and AI innovation to explore the insights, strategies, and technologies reshaping the energy landscape, including Kari Jordan, Founder, Leaps and Bounds, Ulrika Wising, Senior Energy Executive (Former Centrica, Shell & Macquarie), Eliza Eddison, Vice President of Operations at Applied Computing, and Fred Destin, Founder of Stride.VC

If you’d like to attend the panel discussion or Applied Computing's full Demo Day, kindly register here. 

Really looking forward to the proceedings and discussions, meeting the Applied Computing tech team and friends from the wider energy industry. 

More soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. Photo I & II: Speaker profile of energy analyst Gaurav Sharma for Applied Computing's Demo Day on June 10, 2025, and details of a discussion panel on how new technologies are powering the energy transition. © Applied Computing, June 2025. 

Crude thoughts ahead of OPEC+ decision

The question some in the oil markets are asking is will OPEC+ hike production again over the weekend for a third consecutive month in a row. The Oilholic is not among them - a hike is most likely coming, quite possibly of the same volume seen in the previous two announcements, i.e. 411k barrels per day (bpd). 

That's because OPEC has quite overtly shifted from defending a price level to protecting its market share, as yours truly said in a BBC interview this morning. For its part, the oil market is pricing this in already and at some point soon - were this continue - sub-$60 per barrel Brent crude prices beckon. 

Some OPEC ministers and others allocating higher production say the market should remain cognizant of rising demand. However, global demand growth is currently just north of 1 million bpd. That can be serviced by non-OPEC production growth alone. 

A glut beckons with plenty of oil in storage on land and on sea, as the Oilholic wrote on Forbes overnight. A group of eight within OPEC+, or shall we say the powers that be led by the Saudis, have so far unwound 44% or 960k bpd of the 2.2 million bpd in cuts announced in 2022. So how far will they go? And what's the stomach for the fight within OPEC's corridors?

Well, we've been here before in 2015-16, when the Saudi minister at the time Ali Al-Naimi attempted to clobber non-OPEC, especially US shale, producers. In the process, both sides ended up inflicting deep flesh wounds but no knockout blows, as oil prices plummeted to $30 per barrel, before recovering. 

Al-Naimi was sent packing into retirement by the Saudi king and the US oil patch suffered investment delays and thousands of job losses, but survived and saw another wave of consolidation. 

Ultimately, both back then and this time around, those contributing to headline US hydrocarbon production are driven by the spirit of private enterprise, not some unified collective like OPEC producers who can collectively hike or cut output. This spirit and agility keeps them afloat at trying times, if not avoid pain. 

Many shale producers are currently hedged at $70+ per barrel levels with the hedges slated to decouple in six to 18 months time. Therefore, the earliest a hit will be noted would be in 2026 to early 2027 when production stateside will likely plateau or start sliding lower. So are we in a prolonged fight for crude market share and will it work in OPEC's favour? Only time will tell. 

But for context, back in the summer of 2016, the US was producing north of 8.5 million bpd despite all the pain in oil patch. In May 2025, as yet another battle for market share commences - in very different circumstances commences - that figure is north of 13 million bpd. Go figure! 

That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon in line with market developments as they happen. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous, on BBC Business Today on May 28, 2025. © BBC News, May 2025. 

Media missives from Emerson Exchange 2025

With Emerson Exchange 2025 - the thought leadership event of global engineering services, industrial automation and technology giant Emerson - drawing to a close on May 22, the Oilholic enjoyed a fascinating and engaging week out in San Antonio, Texas, US. 

An action-packed week included insightful 1-on-1 discussions, panel chats, a product launch and wider interactions on the global energy and industry mix, and, where it is heading to with the "plant or factory of the future." 

All of The Oilholic's blog entries for Emerson Exchange may be found here. Yours truly also provided insight and an exclusive interview to Forbes from the event as detailed below. 

• Emerson To Seamlessly Integrate Its Industrial Automation Tech Stack, May 20, 2025
• $40 Billion Of Asset Deals In 4 Years, Room For More, Says Emerson COO, May 22, 2025

That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Emerson Exchange 2025 held at the Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center, San Antonio, Texas, US. © Gaurav Sharma, May 2025.