Gastech 2024 sessions to be hosted by yours truly

The Oilholic is delighted to be back in Houston, Texas, US for Gastech 2024, one of the world's largest energy industry fixtures, being held here from September 17 to 20. Yours truly will be holding three panel sessions and two fireside chats at the event with Hardeep Singh Puri, India's Honorable Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Chris Ashton, Chief Executive Officer of Worley. 

The three panels will include distinguished industry thought leaders. Please do join if you can for some fantastic and insightful industry dialogues. Here are the details of the sessions:

Tuesday, September 17, 2024 @ 12:45 pm CDT

IEW2025: Energy transformation through innovation and investment

With His Excellency Hardeep Singh Puri, Honorable Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India

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Tuesday, September 17, 2024 @ 4:50 pm CDT

Harnessing the advantages of natural gas to fuel the Artificial Intelligence revolution

With:

- Rebekah Eggers, Global Client Engagement & Innovation Director, Energy & Resources Sector, IBM

- Arun Kumar Singh, Chairman & CEO, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd

- Ken West, President & CEO, Honeywell Energy and Sustainability Solutions 

- Naser Al Yafei, SVP - Strategy, Sustainability & Transformation, ADNOC Gas

- Matthew Babin, Head of Energy & Natural Resources, Palantir Technologies

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September 18, 2024 @ 10:40 am CDT

Delivering projects in a challenging operating and cost environment

Executive leadership fireside chat with Chris Ashton, CEO, Worley

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September 19, 2024 @ 10:45 am CDT

Decarbonizing heavy transportation: Collaborations to address the acceleration of climate technology solutions from development to deployment

With:

- Sukhmal Jain, Director (Marketing) & Board Member, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited

- Yoki Firnandi, CEO, PT Pertamina International Shipping

- Meg Gentle, Executive Director, HIF Global

- Mark S. Brownstein, SVP, Environmental Defense Fund

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September 19, 2024 @ 2 pm CDT

Fostering greater climate technology innovation, deployment, and scale across the value chain

With:

- Mahdi Aladel, CEO of Aramco Ventures

- Paula Gant, President & CEO, GTI Energy

- Vikas Dhole, GM of Project Management, AspenTech

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Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo © Gastech / dmgevents 2024. 

$80 is looking like Brent's price ceiling not the floor

The second day of the fresh trading week has heaped yet more misery on the oil market. Its the same story as the last week - of declines along familiar lines (global demand, lower Chinese imports, economic uncertainties, oversupply of light crude in particular - the whole works). 

Compared to last week, on Monday the Brent front-month contract ended 8.11% lower while the WTI ended 7.01% lower. 

Having breached $75 per barrel floor, Brent futures are now testing $70 with the WTI having fallen through it some time ago. This is for all intents and purposes a rout based on weaker demand and more than adequate supply. It means that as things stand - at least from the Oilholic's perspective - a $80 oil price is now the ceiling, and not the floor!

The current market sentiment has sent Wall Street banks scrambling to lower their oil price forecasts and market observers to tone down their demand growth forecasts for both this year and the next. This blogger has long been suggesting that 2024 will end in an oversupply of light sweet crude. But as it appears, the whole market might well be in surplus regardless. 

Away from pricing, here's yours truly latest missive for Energy Connects on M&A activity in the sector which appears to be pretty buoyant. Looks like the low price climate has seemingly narrowed the buyer-seller disconnect.

More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Oil production site. © Jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. 

Up close to world's 'strongest land-based crane'

Last week the Oilholic headed out to Westdorpe, The Netherlands, for an opportunity to get up close to what is being described as 'the world's strongest land-based crane' designed and built by Mammoet. Meet the SK6000. 

But just how strong and big you ask? Well the vital stats provided by the good folks at Mammoet are impressive. The '6000' in the name gives it away that it has a maximum lift capacity of a whopping 6,000 tons. 

It can routinely lift components of up to 3,000 tons - roughly the weight of six Airbus A380 super-jumbo aircraft - to a height of 220 m. It utilizes 4,200 tons of ballast to lift with a maximum ground bearing pressure of 30 tons /sq m. 

Naturally for a crane of such a record-breaking capacity, it has to be ginormous and it is. Yours truly saw the gleaming red structure from nearly a mile away on approach to the Mammoet pilot site. We're looking at a main mast of 127-171 m, a jib length - or the distance between the crane axis and the jib - of 29-95 m and a ballast to mast foot length of 59.2 m. 

It has the capability of full electric power (grid, fuel cell, batteries) or standard generators, and it will be primarily containerised for simplicity of movement to sites worldwide. 

Undoubtedly, this beast of a crane will likely have a huge impact on the construction processes and life-cycles within the energy infrastructure sphere - its intended primary market. 

That is a world where there is constant pressure on project sponsors and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) firms to complete projects safely, on time and on budget or if you wish - with more efficiency, more productivity and through safer operations. 

Nuclear, renewable and traditional energy project segments would all welcome Mammoet's latest offering. The company has lined up its first client for the SK6000 "in Asia" with a deployment scheduled at some point in 2025.  

Here's the Oilholic's more detailed feature for Forbes on the business case for the SK6000, following a conversation with Gavin Kerr, Director Global of Services at Mammoet. 

Additionally, he discussed the concept to completion journey of the crane, describing it as four-year endeavour involving multiple teams, and a satisfying final assembly phase that began in June and was completed last month ahead of schedule. 

The report also has more awesome photos of this modern engineering marvel, rather than yours truly's admittedly amateurish attempts to capture a huge crane on a tiny mobile phone camera for this blog!  

In a nutshell, Mammoet believes the SK6000 would enhance the serviceability for refining and offshore new-build and / or maintenance projects in the following ways:  

• Its facilitation of modular construction will allow energy facilities to be built simultaneously, in controlled environments that are safer and high-quality. 

• It would assist with building in larger components, which shortens the build phase and reduces on-site installation activities.

• The more (and the bigger bits) that can be built off-site, the fewer the connections needed to be made on-site with less testing and fewer working hours.

• And, a combination of the above reduces the time to first energy, and/or reduces the downtime needed to maintain facilities.

All-in-all a very interesting development for the energy EPC segment to watch out for as Mammoet's latest record breaker undergoes final safety and stress testing ahead of its first outing. With those final thoughts, it's time take your leave. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photos: Gaurav Sharma at the launch site of heavy engineering group Mammoet's latest crane - the SK6000 which is considered to be the world's 'strongest land-based' one. © Gaurav Sharma, August 30, 2024. 

Speaking and moderating at Gastech 2024

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be moderating and speaking at Gastech 2024 in Houston, Texas, US, from September 17 to 20. Explore the global event's critical conference agenda that is driving the energy transition through groundbreaking innovation, visionary leadership, and action here.

And more on the Oilholic's panels and sessions here.

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in H-Town.

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Digital event banner courtesy of dmgevents.

Stock market carnage wobbles oil bulls' stance

Before the recent global stock market carnage hit, bulls in the oil market had already revised their pipe-dream of $100 per barrel Brent prices down to still somewhat unrealistic $90 prices. 

In the face of uncertain summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere, oil prices were already wobbly prior to the wider market volatility. To the Oilholic, even lower to mid-$80 levels appeared to be on the higher side back then. Then - at least from the Bulls' standpoint - disaster struck last week. 

Stock market fears in the US on Friday (Aug 2) spilled over to Asia on Monday sparking declines from Tokyo to Frankfurt, and London back to New York and pretty much all else in between. 

Since energy markets don't operate in isolation from the wider macro climate, oil futures also took a predictable hit, with the Brent front-month contract sliding down to $75 at one point. Recovery followed on Tuesday, both for the stock market as well as the oil market. However, the future direction of travel is not as clear cut for crude markets. 

With lack of clarity on demand and plenty of non-OPEC, especially US, crude available, these days tension in the Middle East doesn't create the kind of price spikes the market had become accustomed to seeing in the previous decade. And in case you haven't heard, the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly data suggests new all-time US oil production record of 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) and currently projected to rise to 13.7 million bpd in 2025.

Elevated levels of geopolitical tension offer ample proof of that, and price spikes caused by risk now tend to fizzle out pretty quickly unless energy infrastructure is hit, as yours truly recently told Reuters. And it hasn't been hit so far. 

Meanwhile, both the IEA and OPEC are stuck in their respective positions that oil demand growth for 2024 will below 1 million bpd for the former and above 2 million bpd for the latter. Even if the figure is an average of the two, that demand growth can currently be serviced by the uptick in non-OPEC production alone. 

Not a single physical crude market source and their solver models (i.e. what-if analysis 6 months out) seem to indicate he/she is having (or will have) difficulty in securing crude cargoes at their projected price points, especially of light sweet crude. 

And Brent also remains in backwardation, i.e. a position wherein the current price is higher than prices trading in the futures market for later months. June 2025 Brent prices are nearly $3 lower than front-month (Oct) Brent prices. 

Many in the market are now calling for a $75 Brent floor. It is something the Oilholic has long suggested would be the lower end of a $75-$85 per barrel Brent price range. Looks like the Bulls may well have to recalibrate their long calls yet lower again. Well, that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023. 

Third successive weekly loss for crude oil futures

As another trading week came to a close on Friday, oil futures posted their third successive weekly loss. That's the first such occurrence since early June and the Brent front-month contract is now down below $80 per barrel, having spent much of the month of July in the red. It seems no matter what the market is presented with inventory-wise, concerns over demand - especially China's demand - continue to weigh on trading sentiment.

The long ongoing divergence in global demand growth forecasts between the IEA and OPEC adds to the element of uncertainty, with the former keeping its projections for 2024 below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) and the latter maintaining them above 2 million bpd. 

And some in the market are factoring in an unwinding of OPEC cuts later this year, even though the Saudi oil minister has been on record saying the producers' group will react otherwise should conditions merit it. It looks like they do! 

Furthermore, for major buyers such as China and India the availability of discounted crude, however nominal that discount maybe, remains as yours truly noted in an interview with Asharq Bloomberg on July 17.

Overall, in a market that's seeking direction and looking at summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere, things have turned south given the absence of clear signals. As things stand, the first month of a pivotal third quarter of oil trading - ahead of a peaking of refinery demand in August - has turned out to be a damp squib for crude market bulls.

But it is (so far) looking like OPEC is not going to do much at its next meeting, Brent remains in backwardation and many are joining the IEA in predicting an oil market surplus toward the end of the year and early next year. Last week, investment bank Morgan Stanley became the latest to do so (For The Oilholic's Forbes post on the subject, click here). Oil is a story of demand too, so supply-side measures can only do so much in terms of impact in prices. 

Generally speaking, most contacts in the market envisage lower crude prices in Q1 2025, and much of the year-end surplus to be in light sweet crude, boosted undoubtedly by relatively higher US production. So the pipe dream of $90 Brent oil prices this year, remains just that - a pipe dream. That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Bloomberg TV © Asharq Bloomberg TV, July 17, 2024. 

Oil heading to $90, renewables in Japan & more

It's been a hectic few weeks in the energy markets over the course of which oil prices have acquired a bit of buoyancy. Its something they briefly lost last month following the OPEC+ meeting. Brent crude futures currently sit just a few dollars south of $90 per barrel level, having dropped below $80 in early June. 

While global crude demand permutations haven't materially altered, there is renewed optimism over lower interest rates in key markets. That and higher demand projections in Asian markets, especially India, appear to be supporting prices. This sets the stall for relatively higher crude prices as we enter the first month of the second half of the year. 

All things staying even, the Oilholic would argue there is now a near-term case for $90 Brent crude prices. However, defending price upticks beyond the level would prove tricky, given the fact that crude supplies, especially those of light sweet non-OPEC crude, remain on a solid footing.  

Away from the oil market, yours truly was interviewed by the BBC on Japan's and wider East Asia's renewable energy landscape. The Oilholic spoke about a call by the country's private sector to triple its renewables capacity by 2035. 

This kerfuffle over Japan's future energy mix has been going on since the Fukushima tragedy in 2011, and has been further complicated by readily available and competitively priced LNG. 

Japan continues to trail the G7 in terms of renewables. However, while still using coal as a power generation source, Japan is not expanding usage in the same way as India and China are. Overall, a renewables capacity target in excess of 360GW by 2035 looks very ambitious. However, never discount Japanese ingenuity for getting things done! 

Elsewhere, here is one of the Oilholic's missives from late June on why the world needs to nurture sustainable entrepreneurship for Forbes (click here), and another one on why green hydrogen's fate in a net zero economy hinges on upscaling for Energy Connects (click here).

Finally, on the eve of the UK's general election, here are this blogger's thoughts on how the outcome will impact the country's energy industry. Regardless of whoever wins, looks like UK Energy Inc may be stuck between a rock and hard place! That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on BBC World © BBC, June 25, 2024. 

Oil market's OPEC meeting tantrum & global LNG

On June 2nd, OPEC+ decided to adopt a pensive position rather than a defensive or offensive one and it promptly sent the oil market into a tizz. Quite frankly, it needn't have. According to data aggregators, OPEC+ members are currently cutting production by 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd). 

The figure includes 3.66 million bpd of group-wide cuts and "voluntary cuts" by eight members of 2.2 million bpd. They include Saudi Arabia, Russia and six others - Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

The latter cuts were due to expire at the end of June 2024 while the group-wide ones were due to end in December 2024. Following a part-online, part-physical meeting, OPEC+ extended the cuts of 3.66 million bpd until the end of 2025. But it only prolonged the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until the end of September 2024. After which these voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025.

As the markets opened for trading the following, a crude carnage ensued with Brent shattering its $80 per barrel floor and heading lower to $77. While the OPEC+ decision can be construed as bearish, it wasn't the only reason for the slide in prices. As this blogger told Reuters, a number of factors came into play and OPEC's mild surprise merely served as a catalyst. Economic uncertainties persist both in US and China - the world's two leading crude consumers. Neither country offered consistently positive data the month before. 

Both the IEA and OPEC have now revised their demand growth forecasts lower, albeit to varying degrees. The IEA's (at 1.1 million bpd) is half of what OPEC now predicts (2.2 million bpd). Traders looked at all that and went net short for the week.   

However, all things being equal, Brent under $80 did appear to be oversold, as yours truly wrote on Forbes. That's why merely a calendar week later, prices are back above $80 and about right too. What OPEC did (or didn't) matters, but only to a point.

And now from oil to LNG, where yours truly has been doing a deep dive into the state of affairs and the general direction of the global market. 

That's after the latest outages in Norway and Australia triggered yet another spike in prices. As the Oilholic said in a recent CGTN interview, only high levels of storage in Europe have stopped prices from overshooting. It all bottles down to Asia (the world's largest LNG importing region) regularly competing with Europe (the second-largest) for cargoes. This year, Dutch TTF gas prices have risen by 40% over the past three months to trade at around $11 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) levels. 

However, here's the Oilholic's latest market analysis via Forbes on why a change may be on the horizon. Overall, future Asian demand, pace of the energy transition and new supply coming onstream (in the US and Qatar) will likely influence a calmer direction of near-term travel as the end of the current decade approaches. (Full report here). 

That's a wrap for now. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: OPEC logo at its Secretariat in Vienna, Austria. © Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma on CGTN Europe for commentary on the natural gas market. © CGTN, June 2024. 

Range-bound crude prices & European majors' antics

After a fairly volatile April, a sense of relative calm has returned to the global oil markets in May. Since the start of the month, Brent futures have fluctuated between $82-84 per barrel with the global proxy benchmark's $85 support having been firmly breached last month. 

What was April's technical support level is proving to be this month's resistance level with oil struggling to cap $85 in a market still searching for a firm direction of travel.

It's doubtful if OPEC+ would be the one to provide direction. The Oilholic's reading of market sentiment is that a rollover of production cuts by the producers' group has been largely priced in by the market. 

If China's data remains positive overall, and the second reading of the US Q1 GDP is similarly so, perhaps an uptick in prices may be expected in the second half of the year. However, for now Brent remains in technical backwardation, i.e. the current contract is trading higher compared to one six months or more out. For example, Jan 2025 Brent is just north of $81 at the time of writing this blog. 

The oil price isn't too high and it isn't too low at the moment. So if you were OPEC+ why would you make any headline moves on production quotas? Much rather focus on soothing internal tensions for the common cause. Well their common cause, obviously not the consumers'! 

Away from crude prices, the European oil and gas majors sang from the same hymn sheet in recent weeks at the release of their quarterly results - offer shareholders higher dividends and announce multi-billion share buybacks. BP, Shell and TotalEnergies were all at it, but the latter two went one step further by professing their love for a primary US-listing in search of a higher valuation. 

Here are this blogger's musings on their antics and reasons via Forbes, and Chevron calling time on 55 years of oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Oil pump jack model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma October 2023. 

All missives from OPTIMIZE24

With OPTIMIZE24, organised by AspenTech, drawing to a close last week, the Oilholic marked a fascinating and engaging week with a number of pieces for Forbes as well as daily blog posts. 

Here are the Forbes pieces:

• AspenTech ‘Uniquely Positioned’ As An Optimization Enabler For Global Industries, Says CEO, April 30, 2024.
• Net Zero Goals Intertwine With A Viable Circular Economy, Says Sustainability Tech Expert, May 6, 2024.

And here are all the blog entries for OPTIMIZE24:

• 'Crude' carnage, a crazy April & arriving in H-Town, April 29, 2024.
• Kick-off at OPTIMIZE24 & delving into 'bio-optimization', April 30, 2024.
• 'Partnering for the future' at OPTIMIZE24, May 1, 2024. 

That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024.

'Partnering for the future' at OPTIMIZE24

The second and final day of the main conference program at OPTIMIZE24 has now concluded. It started with an early morning primer on the energy transition challenge from geologist, documentary filmmaker and founder of the Switch Energy Alliance Scott Tinker. 

This set attendees up for an insightful panel discussion on navigating net zero hosted by AspenTech's Chief Product & Sustainability Officer Rasha Hasaneen. She was joined by fellow panellists Andre Argenton, Chief Sustainability Officer at Dow, Suresh Kotha, Chief Information Officer at SMUD,  Darryl Willis, Corporate Vice President, Energy & Resources Industry at Microsoft, Zhanna Golodryga, Executive Vice President, Emerging Energy and Sustainability at Phillips 66, Aqil Jamal, Chief Technologist, Carbon Management Research Division at Aramco, and Mike Train, Chief Sustainability Officer at Emerson. 

The hour-long discussion that followed dwelt on how digitization and collaboration in the energy and industrial complex remain crucial to navigating net zero challenges and achieving a just energy transition by tackling the energy trilemma (of sustainability, security and affordability). 

Summing up, Hasaneen noted that existing digitalization tools may hold many of the answers, while innovations - like artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing - may enable a more consistent adoption across both traditional and emerging energy sectors. 

Ultimately, as the AspenTech sustainability head noted: "Technologies do exist to make the world greener and cleaner, willpower and collaboration is what's needed." Or in other words - all parties need to "partner for the future."

Elsewhere, over the course of the day, this blogger heard interesting sessions touching on cybersecurity best practices for operational technology, how AspenTech solutions are being deployed for automating well production, flaring and downtime reduction in the Permian basin, performance engineering for petrochemicals and the company's solutions for supporting the wider hydrogen industry. 

Away from it all, the Oilholic was delighted to host thought leadership videos for AspenTech at OPTIMIZE24 with several of the company's key movers and shakers including Hasaneen (pictured above). The software company's strategic partners and clients also participated in the exercise.

They included senior executives from EY, Accenture, Wood, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Westlake, TenneT and SMUD. The videos will be posted soon on AspenTech's and their partners' commercial and social channels. So watch this space folks!

And finally, the Oilholic shares with you a glimpse of the event's really cool "smart" lanyard. How so? Well the mini device attached to the strap, carried yours truly's event sessions preferences, and flashed a reminder each time they were due to start. Not only that, touching / syncing it with a fellow attendee's lanyard exchanged mutual contact details! All very, very handy and innovative! And that alas is it for the latest edition of OPTIMIZE. 

All that remains is to thank the wonderful Team AspenTech for putting on a fabulous and insightful event in Houston, and for their warm hospitality. Here's to the next installment in the very near future. More musings to follow soon after the flight home to London. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: 'Navigating net zero' panel at AspenTech's OPTIMIZE24 on May 1, 2024 in Houston, Texas, US. © Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma recording an AspenTech thought leadership video with Rasha Hasaneen, the company's Chief Product & Sustainability Officer on May 1, 2024. © Pete Yagmin /AspenTech 2024. Photo III: OPTIMIZE24's smart lanyard. © Gaurav Sharma 2024.

Kick-off at OPTIMIZE24 & delving into 'bio-optimization'

The Oilholic has just concluded his first insightful day at OPTIMIZE24, the thought leadership event for specialist industrial software provider AspenTech. 

The first day of the event's main program saw  attendees from over 50 countries, 20 industries and 100 AspenTech partners who included a veritable who's-who of the energy, manufacturing and industrial complex such as Aramco, Eni, Dow, ExxoMobil, Tennet, Chevron, YPF, OMV and Sabic to name a few. 

Leading technology companies, seen regularly at energy events these days, were also in town including Amazon Web Services and Microsoft who partner on the data side with AspenTech. 

Proceedings were kicked-off by AspenTech CEO Antonio Pietri who summed up the company's ambitions of being a dependable business partner for those looking to improve throughput, firm up their bottomline, improve margins and lower their carbon footprint - all of which are connected. 

Pietri also expressed his enthusiasm for industrial AI as a tool for achieving energy efficiencies, albeit with "guardrails" in place and via a pragmatic approach, in tandem with IIoT and predictive analytics. Ahead of his keynote, the AspenTech also boss kindly spared the time to sit down with the Oilhoic once again, as he has kindly done several times in the past. The resulting and wide-ranging Forbes interview is published here. 

Pietri's keynote set the tone for the sessions that followed. This blogger chose to listen in to how energy majors were attempting to streamline exploration and production, reduce capex and opex, improve health and safety, advance operational excellence and enable the energy transition. 

Many at the venue were happily prepared to give the Oilholic demos and details of upstream and downstream pilot projects to this effect, as well as their existing deployments. 

One key and very interesting theme that made this blogger think was the ongoing re-tuning of the refining complex, which is seeing many European refiners, who once deployed AspenTech solutions to improve efficiencies for the traditional cracking of hydrocarbons, turn to the company's bespoke digital solutions and deploy them produce sustainable bio-fuels. If its a buzzword you seek dear readers - then call it 'bio-optimization'.

Taking in all of its clients global refining optimisation and bio-fuels initiatives, AspenTech claims to have cut 16MT of CO2 emissions in step with $59 billion worth of improved profitability! And on that mammoth refined, or shall we say bio-refined note, its time to bid goodbye for now. We're only just getting started here, so more to follow tomorrow. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: OPTIMIZE24 logo. Photo II: Antonio Pietri, CEO of AspenTech, speaks at OPTIMIZE24, his company's thought leadership conference in Houston, Texas, US on April 30, 2024. © Gaurav Sharma 2024.

'Crude' carnage, a crazy April & arriving in H-Town

The crazy trading month of April is drawing to a close and the Oilholic is writing this missive on a sunny Houston afternoon, having arrived in H-town for industrial software firm AspenTech's thought leadership event - OPTIMIZE24. More on that later, and over the next couple of days. 

But first, let's sum up April's 'crude' carnage. The Brent front-month contract has broken its $85 per barrel support level. This wasn't looking likely at the start of the month when prices were lurking well above the level and even overshot to $92 in the wake of the Iran-Israel skirmish. Yet, as the second month of the second quarter of the oil trading year nears its conclusion, the price is barely holding above $83. Why? Well in this blogger's humble opinion that's certainly not because the risk has gone away. The residual risk still persists. 

However, with the Iran-Israel tensions having eased and oil sliding from $90+ highs, as trading stumbles into May with (thankfully) no regional damage to energy infrastructure - concerns over demand have resurfaced in a market struggling for direction. On one hand there are still lingering doubts about the performance of China's economy (yes there are) and the general direction of travel for the global economy, while on the other is an overriding sentiment that OPEC will hold firm on its price supportive actions. It what's your truly told Reuters the other day.  

Yes, Beijing is indeed importing record amounts of crude oil. But its importation uptick is nothing like it was pre-Covid. And quite a few of the barrels it is importing are being used to boost its strategic reserves. Furthermore, you can count an economy to have motored on in any given fiscal year if its data was consistently pointing to an upswing in economic sentiment, which it clearly isn't in China's case. Hence the doubts. 

As for OPEC, this blogger keeps hearing suggestions from some that the producers' group has lost control of the crude market. This is bonkers. In fact, the Oilholic doubts OPEC is anywhere even remotely near losing control. 

It appears to be actively positioning for a Brent price that is at least 15-20% higher than pre-Covid levels of around $75, seen at the start of January 2020. That'd be around a $80-$90 - a level that's not too high for buyers, not too low for it and well short of three-figures. It's why a market seeking direction is witnessing the current oscillation, while OPEC is left with plenty of spare capacity.

Away from crude chatter, and on to the happy matter of OPTIMIZE24, an event where the great and the good of the technical and engineering side of energy, industrial, chemical and manufacturing worlds are gathering this week at the behest of AspenTech. This blogger looks forward examining, discussing and learning about the challenges and solutions for the approaching low carbon horizon, and of course joining the dots between improved throughput and meeting emissions targets. 

The event's slogan "Partnering for the future" has a nice ring to it. Let's see how it sings over the next couple of days. More from H-Town soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: View of  George R. Brown Convention Center and Discovery Green, Downtown Houston, Texas, US, on Apr 29, 2024. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma at AspenTech's OPTIMIZE24 thought leadership conference, Houston, Texas, US., Apr 2024. © Gaurav Sharma 2024.

Regular columns for Energy Connects

Dear readers, really excited to share the news that yours truly will now be writing regular opinion columns for global news and analysis platform Energy Connects. The portal, which is a part of the dmgevents portfolio, provides access to an engaged global audience that incorporates the entire energy value chain from oil and gas to wind, solar, utilities, hydrogen and nuclear companies. 

The first of the Oilholic's missives is already online here. Do give it a read, and feedback is welcome as always. Looking forward to offering more thoughts and analysis via Energy Connects on a regular basis from hereon. 

Delighted to share my first @energyconnects_ opinion piece & looking forward to writing for the title on a regular basis: Transitioning #oil market lays bare forecasters’ divergent assumptions https://t.co/s1YaVosCXV #OOTT #oilandgas #OPEC #IEA #EnergyTransition

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) April 25, 2024

Dive into our latest monthly column on the intriguing world of oil demand forecasting. Is it a science or an art? Uncover the debate and complexities shaping energy transition. #EnergyConnects #energynews #news #OOTT #oilandgas @The_Oilholic https://t.co/jC9MHQfiQW

— Energy Connects (@energyconnects_) April 26, 2024

More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. 

Revisiting 'EcoStruxure' At Schneider Electric's Innovation Summit

Earlier this month the Oilholic had the pleasure of attending a Schneider Electric event after a gap of nearly six years - the company's Innovation Summit in Paris, France. 

A lot has happened since this blogger last attended a Schneider event. The inimitable Jean-Pascal Tricoire has moved on from being CEO to the Chairman of the company, with former AVEVA boss Peter Herweck now in the boss' chair. 

But one constant has been the company's relentless development and marketing of its Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) architecture - EcoStruxure - conceived to deliver "smart" automation and digitization solutions within the energy sphere for a plethora of industrial, manufacturing and processing clients. 

So it was a pleasure to receive two use case demonstrations of how the product suite is being applied and has evolved since the turn of the decade. For this blogger, the company's EcoStruxure Automation Expert, a software-centric industrial automation system, and EcoStruxure Hybrid Distributed Control System  (formerly branded as PlantStruxure PES), a single automation system to engineer, operate, and maintain a plant's entire infrastructure, stood out amidst a sea of solutions and myriad use cases. 

These were use cases for a "sustainable, productive and market-agile" future that the company envisions for the wider industrial and manufacturing complex, according to CEO Herweck, who in his keynote, noted that: "Being more electrical, being more digital, means being more efficient."

And "Digital + Electric = A Sustainable Future" was the simple equation put forward by Herweck for a world facing the complex issue of managing carbon emissions. 

Here's a Forbes report summing up Herweck's comments in Paris. It was also revealed at the Innovation Summit that Schneider Electric was driving up its R&D spend from 5.4% to around 8% of headline revenue. The company is also practicing what it preaches by converting key facilities into the very sort of "smart factories" it is recommending to the world, something the Oilholic intends to revisit later down the year.  

Elsewhere, your truly also got to grips with a number of fascinating home energy management software solutions and applications alongside battery inverters (used as a way to control flow of electricity in residential properties) and allied smart home concepts. 

Commercial power management software and hardware, grid operations software, artificial intelligence (AI) powered monitoring systems, datacenter cooling systems, and electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure displays and demos at the exhibition floor completed an interesting and informative visit. 

Or a glimpse of a digitized and electrified horizon, as the company's C-Suites and public relations executives will tell you! And on that note, its time to say goodbye. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

Additional note 25.04.24: Here's yours truly's recently published interview with Barbara Frei, Executive Vice President, Industrial Automation at Schneider Electric following a meeting in Paris. 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: A Schneider Electric EcoStruxure display at the company's Innovation Summit in Paris, France. Photo II: Schneider Electric CEO Peter Herweck delivering his keynote. Photo III: Sustainability message dominated proceedings, Apr 3-4, 2024. © Gaurav Sharma 2024.

All missives from CERAWeek 2024

With CERAWeek 2024, organised by S&P Global, drawing to a close last week, the Oilholic marked a fascinating and engaging week for the energy markets with a number of pieces for Forbes as well as daily blog posts. 

Here are the Forbes pieces:

• Aramco Investing ‘Big Time’ In Renewables But CEO Slams ‘Fantasy’ Of Phasing Out Oil And Gas, March 18, 2024.
• Oil Is Nearing 5-Month Highs And Its Not Just About Supply Fears, March 18, 2024.
• What Will Oil Demand Look Like In 10 Years And When Might A ‘Peak’ Occur?, March 20, 2024.
• Why Bill Gates Reckons Houston May Become The ‘Silicon Valley Of Energy’, March 24, 2024.
• Global LNG Market: Sliding Prices In 2024, Rising Opportunities By 2030?, March 27, 2024.
• Energy Transition: Challenge Of Financing And Investing In A $6 Trillion Megatrend, March 28, 2024.

All blog entries for each CERAWeek day may be found here. 

And that's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. 

CERAWeek Day IV & V: Tech-enabled methane emissions monitoring

The Oilholic writes this blog while taking in a view of Downtown Houston's Discovery Green from the Hilton's fourth floor glass windows with CERAWeek 2024 having concluded. There were loads of interesting deliberations, panels and debates aplenty on day(s) IV and V. 

Alongside these, several emerging energy and cleantech technologies were showcased. But if yours truly were to pick one out for 2024 - then it was perhaps the delivery of near real-time methane monitoring services from high-altitude balloons and satellites that stood out. 

For context, the scientific community is united in its belief that methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. According to the Environmental Defense Fund, methane has more than 80 times the warming power of the latter over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere. 

So in order to tackle it, the technologists and energy sector players are coming together with effective monitoring being a key pillar of this drive. Over the course of the week, CERAWeek delegates heard how ExxonMobil is collaborating with Scepter and Amazon Web Services (AWS) on near real-time methane monitoring via satellites and high-altitude balloons and satellites.  

According to ExxonMobil, this collaboration has the potential to "redefine methane detection and mitigation efforts" and will contribute to broader satellite-based emission reduction efforts. Such moves will do wonders in terms of improving global methane detection and quantification.  

It was heartening to note at CERAWeek that the ExxonMobil, Scepter and AWS partnership is just one of the many methane monitoring and mitigation initiatives. Industry peer Chevron, and pipeline operator Williams are also among those making similar moves. 

Williams for its part said it had launched two satellites to detect methane leaks, and the company's CEO Chad Zamarin said he was in favour of round-the-clock methane monitoring. It gives one absolute confidence that emissions tech is booming. 

Elsewhere, Bill Gates was in the CERAWeek House talking cleantech too and representing his two energy companies –  Breakthrough Energy, which is accelerating sustainable energy solutions and pursuing innovations in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions; and TerraPower, which acts as a technology design and development engineering company for nuclear reactors.

Much to the delight of America's oil and gas capital over a business luncheon, Gates told CERAWeek Houston has the potential to become the Silicon Valley of energy and a dominant hub in the global energy transition.

Finally, over 8,100 delegates attended CERAWeek 2024. The tally caps 9,400 when counting staff, vendors, etc. The figure broke the previous record of over 7,200 delegates at CERAWeek 2023. The delegates hailed from over 80 countries who listened to some 1,400 speakers. And on that note, its time to say goodbye to H-Town and board the flight back home to London. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Discovery Green and Downtown Houston, Texas, US © Gaurav Sharma, March 2024. 

CERAWeek Day III: On peak oil demand & more

As the end of day III of CERAWeek nears, for the Oilholic one panel session stood out in particular - Oil Demand: How will it look in a decade? This emotive and extremely polarizing subject turned hot late last year after the International Energy Agency issued a forecast predicting a peaking of oil demand in the 2030s. 

Naturally, OPEC blasted the IEA and said demand would continue to grow for many, many years. It also offered a bullish scenario of 116 million barrels per day in global oil demand by 2045. 

If the Oilholic were to offer his tuppence, oil will indeed continue to be a major part of the energy landscape not just for many years, but many decades. The stark reality of the matter is that no one can say for sure when oil demand will peak whether it is the IEA or OPEC. 

But kudos for the CERAWeek panelists to have at least tried. They included names familiar to the readers of this blog - Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of International Energy Forum and Jeff Currie, a former Goldman Sachs partner and Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle. 

Both were joined by Fred Forthuber, President of Oxy Energy Services, and Arjun Murti, Partner, Energy Macro and Policy at Veriten, and another former Goldman Sachs executive. The discussion was as lively as it gets. Here's the Oilholic's full report on the goings-on of the panel via Forbes. 

The panel followed a related quip by Shaikh Nawaf al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Company, earlier in the day's proceedings. He told delegates that global energy demand will increase faster than the population growth rates through to 2050. "That means that we're going to require more energy intensity for the population in the world."

KPC's answer - why of course - increase its production capacity to 4 million bpd by 2035 from its current level of 3 million bpd. 

See, again the thing here is (as asserted earlier by yours truly), if the various forecasters can't even agree on what demand growth will be like at the end of 2024 (with the IEA predicting 1.3 million bpd and OPEC predicting 2.25 million bpd) - how can they predict for sure what the approaching horizon may look like in 2030! And on that note, it's time to say goodbye. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: CERAWeek 2024 panel on - Oil Demand: How will it look in a decade? © Gaurav Sharma, March 2024.