OPEC and the oil price floor

The last few weeks have brought range-bound volatility to the oil market with Brent futures oscillating between $70 and $75 per barrel. 

For the Oilholic, the now not-so-new Brent price floor is at $70 that OPEC appears to be protecting, although the producers' group rarely publicly comments on oil prices. 

In the face of subdued global, especially Chinese, demand growth, working to protect a price level rather than market share isn't quite working either. 

Brent has seen a steady decline over the last six months to the end of the year from $85 down to $75 to ultimately encountering resistance at $70. 

The market share versus price quandary is continuing for OPEC+ with no end in sight and perhaps no unanimity within its ranks on how to deal with it. 

All the while rising numbers of non-OPEC, especially US, barrels continue to hit the market. Overall, the situation is that at present, and going well in to H1 2025, there is very little appetite for additional barrels from any source, let alone OPEC+ barrels. 

Chances are OPEC+ will keep its cuts in place for another few months whenever a formal meeting takes place to decide on near-term production levels in December. But while it can potentially avoid actions to oversupply the market, will non-OPEC producers do so? Most likely, no. So, lower for longer does appear to be the order of the day. 

And were OPEC+ and the Saudis to discard their output curbs and trigger a market tussle, a decline to $50 Brent prices cannot be ruled out. 

Brent's price floor might currently be at $70, but it could potentially be... well floored further depending on what happens. 

Moving on from oil market chatter, yours truly recently discussed COP29 shenanigans on TRT World (clip here), wrote concluding thoughts on the climate change conference for Forbes (article here), and offered one's take on London's AIM-listed energy minnow Afentra (LON: AET) for Motley Fool (article here). That's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma on TRTWorld, November 2024 © TRT World, November 2024.