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Monday, May 20, 2024

Range-bound crude prices & European majors' antics

After a fairly volatile April, a sense of relative calm has returned to the global oil markets in May. Since the start of the month, Brent futures have fluctuated between $82-84 per barrel with the global proxy benchmark's $85 support having been firmly breached last month. 

What was April's technical support level is proving to be this month's resistance level with oil struggling to cap $85 in a market still searching for a firm direction of travel.

It's doubtful if OPEC+ would be the one to provide direction. The Oilholic's reading of market sentiment is that a rollover of production cuts by the producers' group has been largely priced in by the market. 

If China's data remains positive overall, and the second reading of the US Q1 GDP is similarly so, perhaps an uptick in prices may be expected in the second half of the year. However, for now Brent remains in technical backwardation, i.e. the current contract is trading higher compared to one six months or more out. For example, Jan 2025 Brent is just north of $81 at the time of writing this blog. 

The oil price isn't too high and it isn't too low at the moment. So if you were OPEC+ why would you make any headline moves on production quotas? Much rather focus on soothing internal tensions for the common cause. Well their common cause, obviously not the consumers'! 

Away from crude prices, the European oil and gas majors sang from the same hymn sheet in recent weeks at the release of their quarterly results - offer shareholders higher dividends and announce multi-billion share buybacks. BP, Shell and TotalEnergies were all at it, but the latter two went one step further by professing their love for a primary US-listing in search of a higher valuation. 

Here are this blogger's musings on their antics and reasons via Forbes, and Chevron calling time on 55 years of oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Oil pump jack model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US© Gaurav Sharma October 2023. 

Monday, May 06, 2024

All missives from OPTIMIZE24

With OPTIMIZE24, organised by AspenTech, drawing to a close last week, the Oilholic marked a fascinating and engaging week with a number of pieces for Forbes as well as daily blog posts. 

Here are the Forbes pieces:

  • AspenTech ‘Uniquely Positioned’ As An Optimization Enabler For Global Industries, Says CEO, April 30, 2024.
  • Net Zero Goals Intertwine With A Viable Circular Economy, Says Sustainability Tech Expert, May 6, 2024.

And here are all the blog entries for OPTIMIZE24:

  • 'Crude' carnage, a crazy April & arriving in H-Town, April 29, 2024.
  • Kick-off at OPTIMIZE24 & delving into 'bio-optimization', April 30, 2024.
  • 'Partnering for the future' at OPTIMIZE24, May 1, 2024

That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2024.

Wednesday, May 01, 2024

'Partnering for the future' at OPTIMIZE24

The second and final day of the main conference program at OPTIMIZE24 has now concluded. It started with an early morning primer on the energy transition challenge from geologist, documentary filmmaker and founder of the Switch Energy Alliance Scott Tinker. 

This set attendees up for an insightful panel discussion on navigating net zero hosted by AspenTech's Chief Product & Sustainability Officer Rasha Hasaneen. She was joined by fellow panellists Andre Argenton, Chief Sustainability Officer at Dow, Suresh Kotha, Chief Information Officer at SMUD,  Darryl Willis, Corporate Vice President, Energy & Resources Industry at Microsoft, Zhanna Golodryga, Executive Vice President, Emerging Energy and Sustainability at Phillips 66, Aqil Jamal, Chief Technologist, Carbon Management Research Division at Aramco, and Mike Train, Chief Sustainability Officer at Emerson. 

The hour-long discussion that followed dwelt on how digitization and collaboration in the energy and industrial complex remain crucial to navigating net zero challenges and achieving a just energy transition by tackling the energy trilemma (of sustainability, security and affordability). 

Summing up, Hasaneen noted that existing digitalization tools may hold many of the answers, while innovations - like artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing - may enable a more consistent adoption across both traditional and emerging energy sectors. 

Ultimately, as the AspenTech sustainability head noted: "Technologies do exist to make the world greener and cleaner, willpower and collaboration is what's needed." Or in other words - all parties need to "partner for the future."

Elsewhere, over the course of the day, this blogger heard interesting sessions touching on cybersecurity best practices for operational technology, how AspenTech solutions are being deployed for automating well production, flaring and downtime reduction in the Permian basin, performance engineering for petrochemicals and the company's solutions for supporting the wider hydrogen industry. 

Away from it all, the Oilholic was delighted to host thought leadership videos for AspenTech at OPTIMIZE24 with several of the company's key movers and shakers including Hasaneen (pictured above). The software company's strategic partners and clients also participated in the exercise.

They included senior executives from EY, Accenture, Wood, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Westlake, TenneT and SMUD. The videos will be posted soon on AspenTech's and their partners' commercial and social channels. So watch this space folks!

And finally, the Oilholic shares with you a glimpse of the event's really cool "smart" lanyard. How so? Well the mini device attached to the strap, carried yours truly's event sessions preferences, and flashed a reminder each time they were due to start. Not only that, touching / syncing it with a fellow attendee's lanyard exchanged mutual contact details! All very, very handy and innovative! And that alas is it for the latest edition of OPTIMIZE. 

All that remains is to thank the wonderful Team AspenTech for putting on a fabulous and insightful event in Houston, and for their warm hospitality. Here's to the next installment in the very near future. More musings to follow soon after the flight home to London. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: 'Navigating net zero' panel at AspenTech's OPTIMIZE24 on May 1, 2024 in Houston, Texas, US. © Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma recording an AspenTech thought leadership video with Rasha Hasaneen, the company's Chief Product & Sustainability Officer on May 1, 2024. © Pete Yagmin /AspenTech 2024. Photo III: OPTIMIZE24's smart lanyard. © Gaurav Sharma 2024.