Can oil really hit $150? (And more!)

As the current crude oil trading year enters its final two months marked by festive breaks and potentially higher consumer demand as the Northern Hemisphere's winter approaches - thoughts inevitably turn to what price levels we will likely encounter in 2024.

With hostilities in the Middle East failing to lift crude prices despite all the talk of risk premiums and potential supply disruptions, being bullish about oil early in 2024 is proving hard. That's because concerns over crude demand are outweighing concerns over supply. 

We're talking muted demand from the economic powerhouses of Germany and China, lower consumer confidence levels in key OECD markets and elevated interest rate levels kept there by major global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve. 

It therefore came as a surprise to The Oilholic when the World Bank opined that crude prices could hit $150 if hostilities in the Middle East escalate! Here are this blogger's thoughts on that via Forbes. Simply put - don't hold your breath! 

And let's not forget, Brent hasn't even capped a more realistic $100 per barrel level the bulls crave. The benchmark's January 2024 contract is barely higher than current levels, and contracts further out into the summer of next year are even lower. That implies Brent remains in backwardation mode.

Away from the crude price, the latest quarterly earnings posted by energy majors provided plenty of talking points. More so, after the return of megadeals as ExxonMobil swooped for Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron swooped for Hess Corp. 

Other deals may follow as the energy majors fish for viable plays. It's led many, including this blogger, to wonder if a supermajor itself could be vulnerable? The prime candidate for finding itself in this position is BP; a chronically undervalued supermajor in the Oilholic's opinion. More on the subject here via Forbes. 

Is it possible? Yes, especially in a industry built on big ticket deals. Will it happen? Probably no, not least down to BP's $100 billion plus valuation (however discounted that may appear to some). But as yours truly noted on Forbes - that the company has had to bat away questions about being a takeover target is pretty extraordinary and indicative of how far it has fallen. Well that's all for now folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: Oil pump jack model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma October 2023. 

The challenge of producing more industrially with less

Last week The Oilholic had a hectic, but fruitful and amazing trip to AVEVA World 2023 in San Francisco. Much of the discussion at the event was about one profound question - how to do more with less for the energy and industrials complex, and finding answers via the deployment of technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), industrial internet of things (IIoT), digital twins and enhanced data analytics. 

From the standpoint of the hosts - industrial software solutions and consulting firm AVEVA - the pathway forward is all about creating a connected industrial ecosystem. One that offers a gateway to an unlimited world of data analytics, including third party analytics, with everything focused on one key priority - how to efficiently, safely and diligently improve throughput whilst using less energy and resources.

AVEVA's corporate take goes along the lines of "working to build a new industrial ecosystem, defined by agility, resilience and sustainability. By connecting [clients'] teams with trusted information and insights, powered by the cloud, and finding new ways to deliver life’s essentials – while driving responsible use of the world’s resources."

You deploy solutions to do that, and by default you lower your carbon footprint - a mantra this blogger saw repeated often by the company executives from the exhibition floor to the main auditorium, from keynotes to panel discussions, and much else in between. 

While AVEVA's age-old business mainstay may well have been in the oil and gas business, today it provides software solutions for most segments of the global commerce and industry all of which are under pressure to lower their carbon footprint. In keeping with this, the event had several breakout streams and content on a range of subjects. 

These included sessions for process industries (chemicals, pulp and paper, manufacturing, etc.), infrastructure, power and utilities, and of course oil, gas and energy. Each of these touched on advanced solutions and practices for improving efficiencies and finding that low to zero carbon horizon. And if numbers are your thing, we're talking more than a dozen industry tracks, keynotes, and an immersive expo.

There was also plenty of chatter on deriving multifaceted value from AI, and viewing it as an ally or enabler rather than a threat. Both AVEVA and its customers, including the likes of Mitsubishi Power, Yinson and Henkel, appeared to be pretty candid about the constructive deployment of AI. Read more about it in The Oilholic's latest Forbes post here. 

In summation, to quote AVEVA CEO Caspar Herzberg (pictured here at an analysts' briefing on October 25, seated third from left): "The true benefits go beyond the numbers: connected digital insight and technologies enable you to turn volatility into commercial opportunity by transforming industrial production into digital insights, so you can boost efficiency, resilience, and sustainable impact, and realize your boldest aspirations."

Part of being bold or having bold aspirations - especially for the energy, oil and gas sector - is embracing the technological solutions of our age provided by the likes of AVEVA, and of course, its peers. Going by the interest AVEVA's software products suite generated in San Francisco and the number of energy players in town, The Oilholic reckons that the message is cutting through big time. Well that's all for now folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo 1: AVEVA logo at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. Photo 2: AVEVA World 2023 Expo Floor. Photo 3: AVEVA CEO Caspar Herzberg (third from left) speaking at an analysts' briefing at AVEVA World 2023. © Gaurav Sharma October 24-25, 2023.