100 days+: Oil price swings continue on Iran War news

We're well past the day 100 mark of the Iran War and the wider Middle East crisis that's been upending global oil markets since February 28. As the conflict between the US and Iran escalated, and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz took hold - not only did it impact crude markets, but dragged LNG, LPG, fertilizer, petroleum distillates, helium, and more, into the turmoil. 

However, its the poster futures contract of the global commodities business - oil - that most seem to focus on with a fifth of the world's supplies held up on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the US and Iran having moved from an all out conflict to sporadic skirmishes, and a US Navy blockade of Iranian ports since early April, oil futures continue to trade on news signals. 

Ups and downs, swings and roundabouts in the futures market have sent Brent down 16% on the month, down 12% on a 3-month basis but up 46% year-till-date. That's after latest escalation and de-escalation, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared on Thursday that it will all be over soon (again!) or Iran will pay dearly, and so it goes, pushing Brent below $90 per barrel intraday. 

Make no mistake, this has all the makings of a 'permacrisis' of some sort that'll persist with half-baked agreements for a while yet. The ongoing as well as potential future impact of it is something yours truly discussed last week on TRTWorld's RoundTable programme hosted by Enda Brady. 

We spoke about the complexities energy producers and consumers alike are facing, and the potential for demand destruction. As such, to the Oilholic this crisis appears rather under-priced. 

With Asian economies in a bind over reliable crude oil and products supplies, and the Europeans sweating it out over natural gas - were the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to spill over well into Q3, the inflationary impact of the war will be felt way more acutely. More importantly, even if lasting peace were to arrive in the region tomorrow, it would still take at least until Q1 2027 for the markets to normalise. 

And yes, demand destruction of oil and natural gas in favour of not just renewable energy but also coal, is a very real and pretty visible prospect. Of course, a conclusion to the conflict would come as a massive release that would likely take the market into surplus in 2027. But we are still some way off from there. Should you wish to watch the programme, you can view the full episode here. But that's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on TRTWorld's RoundTable Programme on June 3, 2026. © TRT World, June 2026. 

Speaking at Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026

Delighted to announce that yours truly be speaking and moderating at the Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026, headline sponsored by Schneider Electric. It is due to be held in Houston, Texas, US from June 16 to 17.

This vital industry event incorporates dialogues on engineering, construction, commissioning, operations and maintenance across LNG, power, midstream, downstream and emerging energy under the theme "Where Energy Projects Get Built."

The Oilholic's engagements will include industry dialogues and executive firesides held as part of the event's plenary programme.

For more details on the event and its exciting agenda click here.

Really looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Houston.

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026 / Easyfairs.

Physical crude premiums & more upheaval at BP

It has been three months since the Iran War began on February 28, and seven weeks since the US and Iran announced a ceasefire on April 8. 

In these three months oil prices have risen by over 30% with no clear end in sight. This week brings another round of traders trading on hope that a stalemate between the US and Iran can be resolved.  

But uncertainty lingers, like some circular loop yours truly discussed in a recent Forbes post. 

That's after oil prices headed lower this week (again) with Brent and WTI futures lower by more than10% on the previous week. Of course, last week they rose again, and so it goes.  

While futures are reflective of prevailing market sentiment and its impact on prices, what is actually prevailing in the physical market - especially at the major Asian hubs - is a premium of as much as $20 per barrel, according to sources. Cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted and there is a scramble for alternatives. 

Where this goes is contingent on news flow. Having said that Brent futures contracts six months out - i.e. December 2026 onward - do have prices in the $80-$85 per barrel range. So, should a deescalation continue, prices will come down. But it will still take better parts of the remainder of the year for the market to normalise potentially around Q1 2027 even if the geopolitical tension eases today. 

Away from the oil price - energy major BP delivered another shocker with its board dispensing with Chairman Albert Manifold who was removed with immediate effect on May 26! The company that's currently on its fourth CEO in six years in Megan O'Neill, is now looking for another Chairman in less than eight months. 

Hopes of BP's investors seeking a bit of calm have been dashed again. But they can perhaps rest assured that a return to oil and gas basics remains on track under new CEO O'Neill, according to statements issued in the wake of Manifold's departure. One can only hope!

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, May 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

And that's a wrap from OPTIMIZE 26

OPTIMIZE 26 entered its home stretch on Thursday following a memorable and insightful week out here in Houston. That's as the last of the event's 150+ sessions concluded and gave way to software training days. 

Over the course of an engaging week, the Oilholic had both on and off-record conversations about the energy industry's embrace of agentic AI.

It appears to be the inexorable direction of travel for an industry that's been talking about it quite loudly since 2023. In fact, industrial AI has become routine, and companies are going from reactive to proactive mode. 

AI-assisted recommendations are getting embedded directly into operations. But many executives from ExxonMobil to Versalis, TotalEnergies to Repsol also called for sensible, pragmatic and targeted AI deployment at OPTIMIZE and urged caution on the hype.

To put it in the words of one senior executive - "go for technology initiatives and implementation where there is a real need to create value, not for the sake of it." One such arena is AI-driven asset performance management. 

That's where the latest technology has moved the needle considerably via operators' co-developed solutions with industrial software vendors like AspenTech. Many sessions at OPTIMIZE offered case studies of operator-vendor collaboration resulting in tangible throughput gains for major energy, chemicals and pharmaceuticals plant operators, nearly 2,500 of whom AspenTech counts among its core users' group. 

Over the last 15 months, such collaboration, feedback and software development is what led to the launch of AspenTech's AVA AI earlier this week, with the platform offering "agentic, domain-aware AI capabilities," according to the company's CTO and a name familiar to the readers of this blog - Claudio Fayad.

Alongside his peers and customers, the AspenTech CTO also emphasised on the critical importance of quality data, its gathering, management and governance that underpins AI tools, as well as the multi-billion dollar market for data fabric solutions. 

Speaking of which, here's is yours truly's latest Forbes piece where you can read all about data fabrics. 

"Ultimately, both our customers and us are striving for operational agility based on intelligent software-enabled decision making. The need for this is growing in today's volatile climate where operators face uncertainties on input costs, and various other challenges from interest rates to skill gaps," Fayad noted.

Fayad also said that the cycle of software product enhancements and updates is also getting shorter by each passing year. 

"So, we need to constantly innovate, or shall I say co-innovate or co-develop with process industries. We embrace that challenge and the approaching horizon."

Unsurprisingly, the role and deployment of quality data and AI featured throughout the event's process industries content stream across executive leadership, concurrent engineering, control & optimize, planning & scheduling, manufacturing execution and supply chain management, subsurface science & engineering and asset performance management conference tracks.

And as the end of the week approached, OPTIMIZE 26 drew to a spectacular close with an event finale at Houston's Daikin Park where attendees had a great evening seeing the home baseball team Houston Astros take on the Seattle Mariners.

That's a wrap from OPTIMIZE 26 and Houston folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, May 2026. Photo I: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at OPTIMIZE 26 in Houston, US. Photo II: Claudio Fayad, CTO of AspenTech (left) with Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at OPTIMIZE 26. Photo: Houston Astros versus Seattle Mariners at Daikin Park, May 13, 2026 © Photo: Gaurav Sharma, May 2026. 

Hosting OPTIMIZE 26's executive track & launch of AVA

As OPTIMIZE 2026 entered its second day, yours truly got involved in the proceedings by hosting and moderating the event's Executive Track designed to directly bring in industry C-Suites to discuss the approaching horizon for process industries with their peers.

The first of two topics for the Oilholic's panels was 'Modeling & Optimization: Navigating Uncertainty and Preparing for the Next Generation' with panelists Bharat Newalkar, Head of Research and Development, BPCL, Juan Carlos Ramirez, Value Chain Optimization Director, Repsol, Szabolcs Szabo, Senior Vice President, Value Chain, MOL Group and Vikas Dhole, Senior Vice President, Modeling & Optimization, AspenTech. 

The second panel's topic was 'Unlocking Enterprise-Wide Value with AI' with panelists Leon de Bruyn, CEO, Lummus, Raphael Duflos, Vice President, General Manager Port Arthur Platform, TotalEnergies, Ed Sanderson, Global Lead, Reliability Engineering, Takeda and Heiko Claussen, Chief Technologist, AI, AspenTech. 

The dialogues were on a closed-door basis in a free-flowing and engaging format with plenty of audience participation. While the Oilholic cannot blog about specific points made by the panellists and their audience of industrial technology C-Suites, the discussion largely revolved around deploying AI, strengthening data foundations and scaling optimisation strategies to manage volatility, protect profitability and achieve measurable business outcomes. 

Some candid executive perspectives and practical insights on what it takes to lead – rather than react – in an increasingly unpredictable world were put forward which will undoubtedly come to the fore as the industry continues to innovate.

Speaking of innovation (and, of course, AI), earlier in the day's proceedings, Emerson launched AspenTech AVA - its new industrial scale enterprise-wide AI platform. The company claims it is specifically designed for industries to accelerate AI adoption across the enterprise for measurable business impact. 

A spokesperson told this blogger the platform offers "agentic, domain-aware AI capabilities" with "the agility, efficiency and autonomy companies need to respond faster to operating conditions, continuously improve performance using trusted domain context and act with greater confidence through AI-assisted recommendations embedded directly in operations."

You can have a sample interaction here. 

The developers claim it is all about helping AspenTech customers to find practical ways to apply AI safely and effectively in real operating conditions. 

AspenTech CTO Claudio Fayad told the Oilholic his team have been refining the product for over 12 months prior to launch, embedding Emerson's longstanding industrial expertise and first-principles directly into AVA's operational skills and workflows while leveraging large language models. 

"In doing so, AVA enables companies to deploy the power of generative AI as a trusted operational capability and to build an enterprise operations platform that connects data, context and decision-making across the organization. We believe it provides a practical way to accelerate AI adoption to deliver repeatable, scalable operational impact,” Fayad concluded.

Exciting times folks, let's see where this goes. Here's wishing Team AspenTech well in their efforts. That's all for now, more musings from here to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma moderates a session at OPTIMIZE 26 in Houston, US on May 12, 2026. © AspenTech, May 2026.