Notes on a 'see-how-it-goes' crude market

As we enter the sixth week of the Iran War, extreme levels of volatility continue to persist in the oil futures market. As a recap, given how things stand at the time of publishing this blog, Brent is up by around 6% on the past five sessions, 20% on the month, and 80% from three months ago. 

With huge price fluctuations and swings on each social media post, insult, threat or potential morsel of de-escalation from Washington and Tehran, price modelling and guestimates are proving very difficult to work on. 

As the Oilholic said in a recent interview on the BBC, this is very much a 'see-how-it-goes' market, with a risk premium baked in even if the crisis were to end tomorrow, and one marked by severe oil shipping 'deliverability issues' caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Here's more on those deliverability issues in yours truly's latest op-ed for Forbes and why WTI futures traded at a premium to Brent last week. The Brent-WTI spread turned on its head on Thursday (April 2) with the global benchmark Brent trading at a discount to its US counterpart for the first time in four years and only the fifth such instance since 2010, as Asian buyers queued up to pay a premium for non-Middle Eastern crude, with a sizeable volume of it coming from the states. 

Overall, the economic pain of all this volatility is being acutely felt in emerging Asian markets, particularly reliant on Middle Eastern crude. 

We have tales of four-day working weeks being introduced from Pakistan to the Philippines, several Asian air carriers (e.g. AirAsia, Cathay Pacific, Korean Air, Air India, etc.) raising passenger surcharges and fuel buying restrictions in various markets. 

All of this is coming to Europe pretty soon if this continues, and perhaps in some ways already has if consumer sentiment surveys are anything to go by. As for a potential end of the conflict coming sometime soon with a fresh threat / deadline from US President Donald Trump - this blogger would say that a six-week conclusion from Feb 28 has been widely discussed around the market for some time now. 

It's the time it would take for West African or American crude cargoes to arrive in Asia (double of what it typically takes a Middle Eastern tanker to get to Singapore) to relieve short-term pressures. Can it happen? Will it happen? Iran and the US may be far apart but the channels of communication are certainly open. 

On the latest escalation and de-escalation with Tuesday's deadline from Trump both WTI and Brent are down by around 2% to 5% at 22:48 pm BST, with WTI's premium still intact. So, the only thing to (still) say here is - we'll see how it goes.

That's all for the moment folks in these crazy times for the crude market. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Oil pump jack building blocks model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous © BBC, March 2026. 

That's a wrap! Closing out CERAWeek 2026

The final day of another CERAWeek has ended, bringing the proceedings to a close.This year's event was held under the cloud of a profound crisis for the global energy market - the Iran War. 

Understandably, quite a lot of the dialogues were dominated by geopolitics, and the impact of the conflict on oil and gas supply and demand, economic shocks, and how it will all perhaps end. 

Throughout this week, oil (and gas) prices swung wildly and the Brent front-month futures contract seesawed up and down. Such volatility also turned the conversation towards the impact of the current market on much needed investment in all forms of energy. 

The crisis a deep one for the oil markets as various heads of industry discussed, but perhaps an even deeper one for the global LNG. On the latter point, here is the Oilholic's op-ed for Forbes on how the disruption may upend the LNG market, and on the former point, here's one on why many worry the full impact of the Iran War may not yet have been fully priced into the oil market. 

Another interesting point to emerge from this year's CERAWeek was potential for demand destruction, in particular for LNG, serviced by the twin polar opposite energy sources - coal and renewable energy, with desperate Asian markets turning to both. 

As with any crisis to the upside (or downside), many got talking about how technology can be a great leveller not just in improving efficiencies for energy production but also playing a major role in reshaping the whole sector as it invests in its future.

On that note it's goodbye from Houston folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: CERAWeek 2026's signage © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.  

CERAWeek's Innovation Agora goes mega

The Oilholic took some time out to visit CERAWeek's Innovation Agora programme today - the event's - marketplace of ideas on energy innovation and emerging technologies. 

Yours truly remembers that nearly a decade ago, both the displays and talks would fit within half a hotel foyer, often with ABB's Yumi robot (or 'co-bot' as the company called it at the time) at the centre of it all. 

Things look and feel very different for the programme these days, and particularly so at CERAWeek 2026. Agora proceedings now practically occupy a whole floor at the George R. Brown convention centre adjacent to the event's venue - Hilton Americas in Downtown Houston. 

According to the organisers S&P Global, this year's Agora will have 420 sessions, nearly 900 speakers, over a fourth of whom are from start-ups, and 66 partners. The dialogues are "dedicated to advancing solutions to the greatest challenges facing our energy and environmental future" and exploring new pathways "for lower emissions, affordability and reliability."

The nine key themes for this year happen to be AI and Digital, Electrification Technologies, The Innovation Ecosystem, Managing Emissions, Low-Carbon Fuels and Mobility, Climate and Sustainability, Chemicals and Materials, Investment and Financing and Workforce Strategy. 

Agora has pulled in technologists, VCs, investors and corporate innovators to hobnob with startups in ever greater numbers, very much like any energy technology conference yours truly has attended. 

The Oilholic went from listening to Microsoft executives discussing energy AI to JOGMEC experts talking about pathways for blue hydrogen in the US, and much else in between, earlier this afternoon. 

This blogger can only see the event grow bigger as the years roll on. More musings from Houston soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: CERAWeek 2026's Innovation Agora programme © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.  

Launching Global Autonomous Maturity Report 2026

Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric (left) and Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, launch Schneider Electric's Global Autonomous Operations Maturity Report at CERAWeek 2026 in Houston, Texas, US.

As an energy market analyst and media commentator here at CERAWeek 2026, the Oilholic believes it is pretty clear that autonomous operations are no longer a distant ambition — they’re already reshaping the competitive landscape of the global energy and chemicals sector.

That's why yours truly was pleased to contribute to Schneider Electric’s new Global Autonomous Maturity Report which dives into the digital capabilities now defining operational performance in one of the world’s most demanding industries. 

It was launched at CERAWeek 2026 by Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric. Here’s a snapshot of what the research reveals:

• Where regions truly stand on the autonomy curve — and why some markets are quietly emerging as leaders.
• What’s driving the shift toward autonomous technology, from productivity gains to cost resilience and the pursuit of sustained competitive advantage.
• Which technologies matter most, including AI, cybersecurity, edge computing, advanced process control, and the expanding role of software-defined automation.

For anyone looking to understand how autonomy is evolving from concept to core strategy, this report offers timely, data-backed insight.

Read the findings and download the report here: tinyurl.com/4y9hcn4f

More musings from Houston soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric (left) and Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst launch Schneider Electric's Global Autonomous Operations Maturity Report at CERAWeek 2026 © Schneider Electric, March 2026. 

Introducing The Critical Mass Show at CERAWeek

 

The Oilholic has spent decades covering energy markets and wears many hats as the readers of this blog may already know. At CERAWeek 2026 - one of the world's leading energy events organised by S&P Global - yours truly is delighted to announce that he's now going deep on nuclear too!

Last month, the Oilholic launched a new show - available in both podcast and webcast formats - to explain why nuclear matters, where the narrative is wrong, and what the industry actually looks like from the inside.

The aptly named Critical Mass Show takes you from the heart of nuclear energy to the frontlines of geopolitics, and dives deep into the trends, catalysts, and power players driving the uranium market.

Through sharp, informed discussions with industry leaders and experts, yours truly, the show's team and its wonderful guests uncover the hidden stories and the big picture dynamics in a space that’s becoming impossible to ignore. 

The show's first three guests include Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association, Ashutosh Shastri, Master Fueller, The Worshipful Company of Fuellers, UK and Lucian Pugliaresi, President of at Energy Policy Research Foundation, Washington D.C.

These conversations are just getting started. They will soon feature several industry experts yours truly connected with at CERAWeek 2026 who will soon appear on the show recorded from its studio in London as its exciting journey continues. So, watch this space on Apple podcasts, Spotify and YouTube, and welcome to the Critical Mass Show folks. It would be a privilege to have your company. 

Sincere thanks also to uranium.io for sponsoring the show and supporting thoughtful discussions in a space that deserves more depth. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. Video: Critical Mass Show Promo © https://critical-mass.io/