Tuesday, November 05, 2024

ADIPEC Days I & II: All about 'Energy^AI'

The first two days of ADIPEC 2024 in Abu Dhabi have whizzed by with one theme dominating proceedings - deployment of AI as service. 

In whichever direction you look around the venue - ADNEC Centre - you can't miss signage flagging it. 

At the opening ceremony on Monday, ADNOC's CEO and the UAE's Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said the state-operated energy company will deploy autonomous AI for the very first time and called on his peers to embrace it too for the benefit of the wider energy industry.

ADNOC's move - dubbed Energy^AI or 'energy to the power of AI' will be in partnership with government-backed G42, AiQ and Microsoft. Here's The Oilholic's full report for Forbes on Al Jaber's remarks and ADNOC's wider plans. ADIPEC itself has allocated 40,000 square feet of exhibition space showcasing AI, quantum computing and the latest in robotics. 

Technology driven energy transition efforts were variously revisited throughout the day as many big oil CEOs including BP's Murray Auchincloss and Shell's Wael Sawn highlighted market and geopolitical complexities they are operationally anxious about but also about a return to basics of traditional oil and gas exploration and production to firm up their bottomline. 

Monday also saw several ministers speak at ADIPEC including the UAE's energy Suhail Al Mazroui and India's minister for petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Puri, as was OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, fresh from the crude producers' group's decision to postpone its planned production increase by a month. Most were united in their belief that oil and gas will continue to play a role as part of a wider energy mix for decades. 

The 2024 round of ADIPEC features conference several streams new and old including - its Strategic Conference, Hydrogen Conference, Downstream Technical Conference, Decarbonisation Conference, Maritime &  Logistics Conference, Digitalisation & Technology Conference, Technical Conference, Finance & Investment Conference and Voices of Tomorrow. 

Yours truly kick-off his ADIPEC 2024 journey by hosting a panel titled: 'Climate finance: The role that of the energy and finance sectors' with panellists Lina Osman, Managing Director & Head, Sustainable Finance - Africa and MENAP, Standard Chartered, Bruce Johnson, Director, Corporate Finance and Treasury, Masdar, and Debnath Mukhopadhyay, CFO, TruAlt Bioenergy

In a riveting session, we all discussed how the energy transition represents a trillion-dollar investment opportunity for investors and how can the energy and finance sectors work more closely together to accelerate the flow of investments in clean energy projects to match investor risk return expectations.

The Oilholic also took time out for a BBC Business Today interview with Sally Bundock to discuss the goings-on at ADIPEC, OPEC's decision to postpone its production cuts, and climate finance. 

We discussed current oil market permutations, impact of the US election, how a possible protectionist White House may impact crude demand in 2025 and why climate finance and investing in energy AI / technology is a major part of the discourse at this year's ADIPEC, and as a potentially politically charged COP29 approaches. 

Tuesday, Day II, brought more innovative discussions, and a renewed emphasis on why the shift to low-carbon energy was imperative in a gradual march to a low carbon future, and critical role governments of the world can play in facilitating this. 

Of course, the event saw divergent views on whether this should be achieved via taxation, subsidies or be left the free markets. Or perhaps a combination of all three. Technology came to the fore here too, with several industry participants outlining various way in which AI, advanced analytics, quantum computing and IIoT can make a difference in helping the energy sector as well as the wider global industrial complex discover a low - to - ultimately zero carbon future. 

For his part, the Oilholic hosted his second panel of ADIPEC 2024 titled 'Standardised sustainability reporting: building energy transition trust to boost investment' first thing in the morning with panellists Karim Arslan, Executive Director, Green & Sustainable Finance Originator, Green & Sustainable Hub, Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, Semih Ozkan, Executive Director, EMEA Energy, Power, Renewables, Metals & Mining, J.P. Morgan and Don Dimitrievich, Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for Energy Infrastructure Credit, Nuveen.

We discussed the critical subject of how standardised sustainability reporting could provide the key to boosting investment into the energy transition through higher levels of investor insight and confidence. And here's to more insightful dialogues over the days to follow. That's all for now folks. There's plenty more to come from yours truly from ADIPEC 2024. So keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: Energy AI signage at ADNEC, Abu Dhabi - the venue of ADIPEC 2024. Photo II: AI display at ADNOC exhibition booth at ADIPEC 2024. Photo III: Gaurav Sharma host a panel on climate finance at ADIPEC 2024 on 04.11.24. (Courtesy: dmgevents) Photo IV: Gaurav Sharma on BBC World Business Today on 04.11.24 at 9:50 GST. (Courtesy: BBC) 

Sunday, November 03, 2024

ADIPEC 2024 sessions to be hosted by yours truly

The Oilholic is delighted to be back in Abu Dhabi, UAE for ADIPEC 2024, the world's largest energy conference and exhibition of its kind, being held here from November 4 to 7. Yours truly will be holding four panel sessions at the event with distinguished industry thought leaders. 

Please do join if you can for some fantastic and insightful industry dialogues. Here are the details of the sessions:

Monday, November 4, 2024 @ 15:30 GST

Climate finance: the role of the energy and finance sectors

With:
- Lina Osman, Managing Director & Head, Sustainable Finance - Africa and MENAP, Standard Chartered
- Bruce Johnson, Director, Corporate Finance and Treasury, Masdar 
- Jassim AlSane, Co-head of Investment Banking MENA, Goldman Sachs 
- Debnath Mukhopadhyay, CFO, TruAlt Bioenergy


















(Click image to enlarge)

Tuesday, November 5, 2024 @10:00 GST

Standardised sustainability reporting: building energy transition trust to boost investment 

With:
- Karim Arslan, Executive Director, Green & Sustainable Finance Originator, Green & Sustainable Hub, Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking
- Semih Ozkan, Executive Director, EMEA Energy, Power, Renewables, Metals & Mining, J.P. Morgan
- Don Dimitrievich, Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for Energy Infrastructure Credit, Nuveen



















(Click image to enlarge)

Wednesday, November 6, 2024 @14:30 GST

Asia’s role in defining the hydrogen market

With:
- The Right Honourable Abang Johari Tun Openg, Premier of Sarawak, Malaysia
- Hiroshi Matsuda, Chief Regional Officer, EMEA, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 
- Koji Yamamoto, SVP, JOGMEC 
- Shoichi Kaganoi, SVP, Hydrogen & CCUS Development, INPEX
- Karine Boissy-Rousseau, VP Green Gases, TotalEnergies



















(Click image to enlarge)

Thursday, November 7, 2024 @11:45 GST

The strategic role of NGOs in unlocking energy investment for emerging economies

With:
- Maha Attia, Assistant Vice Chairman for Foreign Trade, Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) 
- Madadh MacLaine, Secretary General, Zero Emissions Ship Technology Association (ZESTAs) 
- Huda Al Houqani, Director, Abu Dhabi Sustainability Group (ADSG)
- Michel Abi Saab, General Manager, Emerge

















(Click image to enlarge)

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo © Gastech / dmgevents 2024. 

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Speaking and moderating at ADIPEC 2024

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be moderating and speaking at ADIPEC 2024 - the world's largest energy conference and exhibition - in Abu Dhabi, UAE, from November 4 to 7. Explore the event's program touching on critical energy issues, latest technological developments, and energy transition through groundbreaking innovation, visionary leadership and action here.

And more on the Oilholic's panels and sessions here











Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders, fellow industry professionals and colleagues. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Abu Dhabi.

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Digital event banner courtesy of dmgevents.

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Are we back to fundamentals as oil prices tank further?

For the second successive session this week oil prices have slid further and faster. After Monday's declines of over 2%, Tuesday has logged fresh intraday drops of as high as 5%. 

At the time of writing this post, The Oilholic noted that Brent and WTI front month futures contracts had breached their respective $74 and $70 per barrel floors. Headwinds are in fact gathering momentum and yet lower prices may follow. 

Over the weekend, China's promised economic stimulus underwhelmed the market with its vagueness. Then came a revelation that OPEC - deemed the most bullish of the crude oil demand growth forecasters - had revised its prediction lower for 2024 below 2 million bpd. The IEA's prediction is below 1 million bpd. 

And if that wasn't bearish enough, media reports, led by The Washington Post, also suggested on Tuesday that Israel may not attack Iran's oil facilities as feared. So has the risk premium effectively decoupled and are we now back to market fundamentals driving the oil price again? Largely yes in an oversupplied market. But then again not a complete yes yet, as its contingent upon what Israel may or may not do next! 

That said, outlandish $100 per barrel oil price predictions can once again take a back seat. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018

Friday, October 04, 2024

Risk weighting oil in the current climate

The last few weeks have been relentless in terms of geopolitical developments and their impact on the oil market - albeit a somewhat oversupplied one with plenty of barrels to more than meet global demand. 

From the lows of September last seen in December 2021, the Brent front-month contract has ended the current trading week posting its highest weekly rise in almost two years. The reason is a bit more complicated than yet another escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

On Tuesday, Iran hit Israel with a barrage of ballistic missiles in response to its "aggressive acts," including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon.

With speculation rife about Israel's impending response to Iran, Brent futures stemmed their decline towards $70 per barrels and started inching up towards $80. The inching quickly turned climbing on Thursday after US President Joe Biden decided to make an "off the cuff" remark about discussing with Israel if it could go after Iran's oil facilities. 

Four key ones spring to the Oilholic's mind as yours truly noted in an article for Forbes. These sites may well have a target on their back but any potential Israeli action does not need to be spelt out by a sitting US President 4 weeks from a presidential election. 

Cue a 5.5% spike in Brent futures on Thursday, followed by another 2% today, bringing prices closer to $80. That prices are still below the $85 level seen at the start of the third quarter last year, as well as earlier this year, is down to the fact there is plenty of crude in the market at a time of uncertain demand. 

So the question is where do we go from here? In that respect, things are pretty much as they were at the start of the week when the Oilholic was interviewed by Reuters, i.e., risk weighting for front-month oil futures is currently contingent upon what Israel might do next and if there is a direct confrontation with Iran.

It is now (almost) guaranteed that such a confrontation is now not a question if but when, as yours truly said on subsequent back-to-back BBC News interviews following Iran's attack on Israel on Tuesday and Biden's astounding intervention on Thursday. 

Now, if its a case of simple mathematics, Iran's 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in oil exports, mainly to China, can be taken care off by the rest of the market should they be knocked offline by Israel. Because as things stand, the crude market will likely end this year and start the next with a surplus.

However, should the conflict broaden to engulf the Gulf and hit exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, as well as hold-ups in the Strait of Hormuz, we would almost certainly be looking at an upward lurch to $100 Brent prices. Where this goes is anybody's guess and all eyes are now on Israel. Well that's all for now folks! Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma on BBC News on October 3, 2024 © BBC.