Speaking and moderating at Emerson Exchange 2025

Delighted to announce that yours truly has partnered with global technology, engineering and industrial software giant Emerson to speak and moderate at the company's upcoming thought leadership event - Emerson Exchange 2025. 

This year's theme for the event - due to be held in San Antonio, Texas, US, from May 19 to 22, 2025 - is "accelerating innovation." Explore its groundbreaking agenda here.

The event aspires to empower change in the sphere of industrial automation by exploring advanced technologies, strategies, collaborative approaches and best practices. To attend, register here: 

Really looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in San Antonio.

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Speaker profile of Gaurav Sharma for Emerson Exchange 2025 © Emerson / Emerson Exchange, May 2025. 

What oil price would Trump want for US consumers?

US President Donald Trump makes no secret of his pro oil and gas credentials. It is also widely understood that the President seeks lower crude prices for the American consumer. 

Ideally, US shale producers would prefer oil prices north of $75 per barrel. That isn't exactly low enough for the President. 

Thanks to an uncertain macroeconomic climate, the kerfuffle caused by his trade tariffs and OPEC+ opting to bring more barrels on to an already well supplied market - prices have recently slumped down to $60-65 per barrel. But is that range now low enough for the President? Perhaps not, say many, including global investment bank Goldman Sachs. 

Apparently, after a forensic analysis of the President's social media posts, analysts at the bank have concluded that his preference would be for a $40-50 per barrel West Texas Intermediate range. The US benchmark is trading at ~$3 per barrel discount to the global proxy benchmark Brent at the time of writing.

Quoting parts of a Goldman Sachs report to clients, Bloomberg recently noted it as having observed that Trump's "inferred preference for WTI appears to be around $40 to $50 a barrel, where his propensity to post about oil prices bottoms.” 

He also “tends to call for lower prices (or celebrate falling prices) when WTI is greater than $50,” Goldman analysts added. “In contrast, President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI less than $30) often in the context of supporting US production.”

However, for US shale drillers this blogger has spoken to, that range is a tad too low. Many are presently hedged 12-18 months out on $70-plus prices. When the hedges come off, a low price environment will bite. 

But the President has also been very vocal about US energy dominance - or as Goldman analysts note - tweeting nearly "900 times" about it. Clearly he wants US oil inc. to succeed too. So, where would the happy middle ground be between both sentiment tugs? 

Market forces might well decide that, skewing it to one side or the other. The only confirmed thing is the overwhelmingly bearish climate this may all play out in 2025. That's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: US flag. © DWilliam / Pixabay, 2015. 

The scramble to lower oil price forecasts

The Oilholic has been on record noting there is little to be bullish about oil at this stage of the trading cycle. Recent events have not only proven this to be the case but amplified the prevailing bearish sentiment.

With OPEC+ determined to ramp up production despite tepid demand and US President Donald Trump's administration resuming nuclear talks with Iran carrying the possibility of a settlement - a bit of a mad scramble to lower oil price forecasts is taking place. 

Banks and brokerages are all lining up to lower their prior forecasts. Last week, Goldman Sachs told clients it now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and around $56 in 2026. Both projections are lower by $2 from their previous level. Goldman Sachs also cut its forecast for WTI crude by $3 per barrel to an average of $56 for the rest of 2025 and $52 in 2026. 

It is by no means alone. Morgan Stanley has also trimmed its oil price forecasts for the remainder of the year. It revised its Brent projection down to $62.50 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of 2025; a downward revision of $5 per barrel from the previous forecast.

Meanwhile, Barclays has cut its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 a barrel for 2026. ING cut its Brent forecast too for the remainder of 2025 down to $62 per barrel from $68.

Citi also cut its three-month price forecast for Brent down to $55 per barrel on Thursday, from a previous estimate of $60 per barrel. It has however maintained the $60 projection for its long-term forecast. And ANZ maintained its already low oil price target over the next three months of $55 per barrel but warned of risks "firmly skewed to the downside."

Away from banks and brokerages, the US Energy Information Administration - statistical arm of the Department of Energy - cut its average Brent oil spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short-term energy outlook published on May 6.

The EIA currently sees the Brent spot price averaging $65.85 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026. In its previous outlook published in April, it projected the Brent spot price to average $67.87 in 2025 and $61.48 in 2026.

Expect more downward revisions over the coming weeks unless mildly bullish sentiment returns via a combination of one or more of three developments: (1) US-Iran tensions revert to pre-talks level, (2) OPEC+ reverses course, and/or (3) an easing of US-China trade tiffs unfolds. 

Even in that eventuality, the uptick is likely to pull Brent up to around the $70 mark in the Oilholic's opinion, and well shy of the $80+ levels the bulls crave. Well that's all for now folks, more musings to follow over the course of the month. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. 

Oil shed $10/bbl or 14% week-on-week on Trump Tariffs

Oil futures have taken a heavy pummelling in the wake of the so-called Trump Tariffs right down to four-year lows. That's after President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports to the US, and much higher rates of up to 50% against dozens of countries. 

With major manufacturing centers in Asia on the President's tariffs list published on April 2, both Brent and WTI front-month futures subsequently shed over $10 per barrel or 14% from the price they were trading at the day before the announcement.  

The extreme volatility has brought WTI down below $60 per barrel and Brent shy of $65. A modicum of market calm is unlikely in the short-term, more so as the President has vowed further tariffs against countries (e.g. China) who chose to retaliate. Indeed, there is relatively little to be bullish about oil at the moment. 

In fact, the Oilholic argues via an op-ed in Forbes that bearish sentiment was already entrenched in

crude markets heading in to the second quarter of 2025, before the President's move amplified it. 

So even when the tariff din subsides, it may be wise not to expect an overshoot past prices noted prior to Trump crude shock. (Here's more.)

Yours truly also offered his analysis on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, noting that the road ahead for crude markets will likely be very, very choppy thanks to uncertain demand in China, doubts over the performance of the global economy and lower levels of consumer confidence in key markets. The full interview (dubbed in Arabic) is available here. 

There's heavy uncertainty all around from the commodities market to equites, with real fears of an international trade war and a global recession. So, how much of a drag it turns out to be on near-term oil prices is anyone's guess. Oil futures will remain hostage to Trump's next move. 

Away from crude matters, the Oilholic also published his latest Energy Connects missive on the global digital economy being powered by natural gas for decades. Here's more, have a read on why all those hyperscale datacentres simply cant be powered by renewable energy alone for a good few decades if not more. 

Well that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV channel © Asharq Business, April 2025.

Meeting French billionaire entrepreneur Mohed Altrad

Mohed Altrad (left), French entrepreneur and founder of multinational services and equipment firm Altrad Group, with Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, at Altrad Sparrows training centre in Tyrebagger, Scotland, UK. 

Earlier this month, the Oilholic headed some 550 miles north from London to Tyrebagger Hill, on the outskirts of the UK's energy capital Aberdeen, for a very special meeting with an extraordinary entrepreneur - none other than Scaffolding King Mohed Altrad. 

Yours truly's meeting with one of France's most famous and fascinating industry captains had the backdrop of a Liebherr BOS 2600 offshore pedestal crane capable of lifting 15,000 kg loads, at the Altrad Sparrows training centre. It happens to be one of the entrepreneur's many businesses, and one he acquired as recently as 2022. 

The serial entrepreneur happens to be aggressively expanding Altrad Group's already substantial presence in energy services across the sector's value chains and commissioned projects, from refineries to offshore wind farms, from marine to LNG. 

Read the Oilholic's latest Forbes exclusive for more on his business, its beginnings, and Altrad's inspiring journey here. 

His company's headline business is split 84% to 16% between services and equipment segments. 

In 2024, the business generated nearly €6 billion (£5.03 billion, $6.52 billion) in revenue. 

Interestingly, almost €1 billion of that was derived from services to the clean energy segments of nuclear, hydrogen and wind, Altrad said. 

The figure may well be taken as Altrad's statement of intent when it comes to supporting a sustainable future, and is expected to rise subject to business conditions, according to the man himself. 

While Altrad Group businesses are also branching out into consulting in their respective areas of expertise, there is very little appetite - as far as the boss is concerned - for branching out into core engineering aspects of energy projects. 

An expansion in the energy services though looks almost certain to continue, both through acquisitions and organically, Altrad told the Oilholic. That's asvthe segment undergoes consolidation in a fiercely competitive operating climate. Overall, a most remarkable encounter. 

That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma (right) with Mohed Altrad at Altrad Sparrows, in Aberdeen, Scotland, UK © TVP Studios / Altrad Sparrows, March 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma (right) and Mohed Altrad in a conversation in Aberdeen, Scotland, UK © Benjamin Romney, March 2025.