Oil spikes as US hikes sanctions on Russia & more

Happy New Year dear readers. Oil trading began on a much firmer footing this month, with Brent capping the $80 per barrel mark for the first time in three months on January 10. 

The global proxy benchmark has pretty much stayed near the mark in the couple of market sessions we have had since, as traders get their first quarter antennae up to gauge the direction of travel. And, of course, factor in recent news of heightened US sanctions on Russia's oil exports.

Many of the curbs target what's described as a "shadow fleet" of ageing non-Western oil tankers that carry Russia's oil. It has sent China and India - two of the biggest buyers of Moscow's black gold - scrambling for alternatives while they work out the situation. 

Extremely cold weather in the North Hemisphere, and an anticipation of tougher sanctions on Iran by an incoming Donald Trump administration are also providing an upside. However, wider market fundamentals have not shifted by much. 

The dollar remains relatively strong, lack of clarity on where China's demand may eventually go this year persists and there is still plenty of non-OPEC oil out in the market to meet global demand growth projections just north of 1 million barrels per day. 

Many are also factoring in higher US production levels in 2025. So the current firmness in Brent prices may prove to be short-lived. 

Away from the oil market, yours truly also discussed Central Europe's natural gas conundrum following Ukraine's new year's eve decision to end Russian energy transit via its territory on CGTN earlier this month. 

Basically, the old continent will need to find around 15 bcm of natural gas from elsewhere, which it can but at a considerably higher cost. (Full interview clip here).

Finally, switching tack to market related political developments, the year has begun with oil rich Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (finally) on his way out of office and an election on the horizon. Meanwhile, incoming US President Donald Trump has caused a stir revisiting his attempt to acquire the resource-rich and strategically important Arctic island of Greenland. 

We're barely a week away from Trump entering the White House with massive implications for the energy market and beyond. And on that note, its time to say goodbye for now. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. 

Driving home for Christmas... (petrol prices edition)

Season's greetings dear readers. Many of you may be driving home for Christmas and looking forward to the New Year, with perhaps that most famous of Chris Rea songs playing on the radio. 

As you fuel up for the journey ahead, it is now pretty certain the current year and its festive season will end with petrol prices (or gasoline if you wish) at their lowest since 2021. 

That's because crude oil prices are at their lowest for nearly three years too, owing to lower demand (mainly from China), higher supply (largely from the US) and a stronger dollar (courtesy of the US Federal Reserve). 

Here are your truly's observations on the current market permutations via Forbes, and why lower prices may last well in to 2025. 

From a UK perspective, at the time of writing this blog, a litre of petrol would set you back on average by 135p (US$1.70), and sub 130p if you happen to a Costco member. In fact, lower prices at the pump are being replicated across Europe.  

And average US prices are pretty low this festive season as well, with a gallon of petrol going for $3.145 this week, counting in regional fluctuations around the mark. That's $0.83 per litre or 66p - a price, as always, many in Europe can only dream of!

On that note, it's time to take your leave for the festive week. The Oilholic will be back in Jan. And wherever you are driving or travelling to (or not driving or travelling at all), be safe and merry. Here's wishing you all a great Christmas & a Happy New Year! The Oilholic will be back in Jan, after the holidays. 

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Driving in Gloucestershire, UK on December 23, 2024 © Gaurav Sharma 2024. 

GMIS 2024 and industrial safety manifesto launch

The Oilholic recently had the privilege of speaking and moderating at the Global Manufacturing and Industrialisation Summit (GMIS) in Abu Dhabi, UAE on December 5, hosted by the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development at the inaugural Abu Dhabi Business Week, with a key theme of building resilience across the global industrial, manufacturing and petrochemical complexes. 

The summit deliberated at length the challenge of ensuring safety and security for key infrastructure in the digital age. In line with this thinking, a first-of-its-kind Manifesto for Global Industrial Safety was launched at the event to widespread recognition and support from leaders and experts across the global industrial ecosystem. 

Developed by the Global Initiative for Industrial Safety (GIFIS) in collaboration with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Lloyd’s Register Foundation, the Global Manufacturing and Industrialisation Summit (GMIS), and the Cambridge Industrial Innovation Policy (CIIP), the manifesto sets a new global benchmark for safety and sustainability in industrial practices.

Each year, approximately three million deaths worldwide are linked to insufficient safety measures and dangerous working conditions, resulting in an economic loss of 3.9% of global GDP, according to the International Labour Organisation. Cognisant of this, the manifesto offers a strategic blueprint for stakeholders to harness technology and effectively address safety risks for workers around the world. 

In doing so, it outlines guiding principles and vital contributions required from industry, government, academia, regulators, and international organisations to accelerate the safe adoption of technology in new industrial processes and to integrate technology-enabled safety solutions in traditional industries. 

Delivering a keynote address at the event, post-launch, Dr. Mohamed Al Kuwaiti, Head of Cyber Security for the UAE Government, said the manifesto underscores the importance of continuing to prioritise safety, security, and collaboration. 

"Partnerships, communication, and information-sharing are vital to maintaining this progress and achieving a resilient and secure future." More so, as the global cybersecurity market booms in the digital age, as recorded by yours truly in a Forbes missive from the event. 

An exciting event agenda also saw several topics of interest deliberated throughout the day-long event. Proceedings included a fireside chat hosted by yours truly on pioneering industrial resilience by leveraging technology and the pivotal role of leadership in industrial safety, with Barbara Frei, Executive Vice President Industrial Automation, Schneider Electric and Courtney Gregoire, Vice President and Chief Digital Safety Officer, Microsoft. 

Both Barbara and Courtney touched on best practices from an OT and IT perspective as industries and whole sectors embrace IIoT, AI and robotics. 

Later in the day, and to bring the event proceedings to a close, the Oilholic also moderated a panel session titled 'Built to Endure: Resilience in High-Stakes Industries.'

Panellists included Amer J Siddiqi, Executive Director, Mubadala, Hazeem Al Suwaidi, CEO, Borouge and Hesham Awda, COO, NMDC Energy Offshore. They offered their respective takes on why building resilience in high-risk industries requires a multi-faceted approach that combines technology, strong leadership, and a culture of safety. 

This now incrementally involves the deployment of advanced technologies, such as predictive analytics and machine learning, to anticipate potential disruptions before they occur.

As global supply chains become increasingly interconnected, industries’ ability to endure and adapt to challenges will be a defining factor in their long-term success, happened to be the verdict of the panel, and the wider GMIS discourse. 

Offering a parting food for thought - for governments and businesses alike, resilience has become a strategic asset that not only safeguards operations but also drives sustainable growth. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: GMIS 2024. Photo II: Dr. Mohamed Al Kuwaiti, Head of Cyber Security for the UAE Government speaks at GMIS. Photo III: Gaurav Sharma hosts a fireside chat with Barbara Frei, Executive Vice President Industrial Automation, Schneider Electric and Courtney Gregoire, Vice President and Chief Digital Safety Officer, Microsoft. © GMIS 2024. 

Speaking at GMIS 2024

The Oilholic is delighted to be back in Abu Dhabi, UAE for GMIS 2024, being held here on December 5 as part of the inaugural Abu Dhabi Business Week. Yours truly will be hosting one fireside chat and one panel session at the event with distinguished industry thought leaders. 

Please do join if you can for some fantastic and insightful industry dialogues. Here are the details of the sessions:

Thursday, December 5, 2024 @ 12:30 GST

Pioneering Resilience: Technology and Leadership in Industrial Safety

With: 

- Barbara Frei, Executive Vice President Industrial Automation, Schneider Electric

- Courtney Gregoire, Vice President and Chief Digital Safety Officer, Microsoft

(Click image to enlarge)

Thursday, December 5, 2024 @15:15 GST

Built to Endure: Resilience in High-Stakes Industries

With: 

- Amer J Siddiqi, Executive Director, Mubadala

- Hazeem Al Suwaidi, CEO, Borouge

- Eng. Hesham Awda, COO, NMDC Energy Offshore

(Click image to enlarge)

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo © GMIS 2024. 

OPEC and the oil price floor

The last few weeks have brought range-bound volatility to the oil market with Brent futures oscillating between $70 and $75 per barrel. 

For the Oilholic, the now not-so-new Brent price floor is at $70 that OPEC appears to be protecting, although the producers' group rarely publicly comments on oil prices. 

In the face of subdued global, especially Chinese, demand growth, working to protect a price level rather than market share isn't quite working either. 

Brent has seen a steady decline over the last six months to the end of the year from $85 down to $75 to ultimately encountering resistance at $70. 

The market share versus price quandary is continuing for OPEC+ with no end in sight and perhaps no unanimity within its ranks on how to deal with it. 

All the while rising numbers of non-OPEC, especially US, barrels continue to hit the market. Overall, the situation is that at present, and going well in to H1 2025, there is very little appetite for additional barrels from any source, let alone OPEC+ barrels. 

Chances are OPEC+ will keep its cuts in place for another few months whenever a formal meeting takes place to decide on near-term production levels in December. But while it can potentially avoid actions to oversupply the market, will non-OPEC producers do so? Most likely, no. So, lower for longer does appear to be the order of the day. 

And were OPEC+ and the Saudis to discard their output curbs and trigger a market tussle, a decline to $50 Brent prices cannot be ruled out. 

Brent's price floor might currently be at $70, but it could potentially be... well floored further depending on what happens. 

Moving on from oil market chatter, yours truly recently discussed COP29 shenanigans on TRT World (clip here), wrote concluding thoughts on the climate change conference for Forbes (article here), and offered one's take on London's AIM-listed energy minnow Afentra (LON: AET) for Motley Fool (article here). That's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma on TRTWorld, November 2024 © TRT World, November 2024.